ChescoWx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Latest Wxsim with 12z data has the following Snow arriving Sunday evening around 7pm temp 21.1 Heavy Snow by 10pm temp 20.2 Heavy Snow at 1am temp 21.9 (4.0") Some Snow/IP mixing in by 330a temp 22.2 Snow ending by 5am total accumulation 5" to 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Any info on the Thurs-Fri (29-30th) thing-a-ma-jig? One "big storm" at a time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Any info on the Thurs-Fri (29-30th) thing-a-ma-jig? One "big storm" at a time.... Looks like a clipper passing well north of all of us...probably not much more than a 1-2" deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Thursday had potential because the seasonal trend had been for clippers to track south. So far this one keeps going north, go figure winter 2015 keeps throwing cheap shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 I think the Euro has us going to rain on their 12z....a little different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I think the Euro has us going to rain on their 12z....a little differentLooking at Euro individual ensembles,, more go underneath us than over us. More in line with GGEM and GFS. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 GFS is damn pretty. http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/gfs/current/18z/GFS_MSLPThickQPF_na_f138.png http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/gfs/current/18z/GFS_MSLPThickQPF_na_f141.png Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 GFS is damn pretty. http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/gfs/current/18z/GFS_MSLPThickQPF_na_f141.png Sent from my iPhone GFS could lead the way let's hope. ECM probably too wound up and warm with the pressing arctic high I think Solid 1" QPF on the 18z MOST importantly - Miller A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 GFS is damn pretty. http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/gfs/current/18z/GFS_MSLPThickQPF_na_f138.png http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/gfs/current/18z/GFS_MSLPThickQPF_na_f141.png Sent from my iPhone Wow nice shift from 12z. GFS is on a roll hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 GFS could lead the way let's hope. ECM probably too wound up and warm with the pressing arctic high I think Solid 1" QPF on the 18z MOST importantly - Miller A Great hit the delete button.... AO falling NAO falling PNA rising MJO solidly in phase 7 GFS 2 Miller A's Feb 1 5 life is good Best signals all year in my opinion and in this winter time to take it and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Thursday had potential because the seasonal trend had been for clippers to track south. So far this one keeps going north, go figure winter 2015 keeps throwing cheap shots.Still time for it to trend a bit more south in this winter, as they have for the most part. I don't think it will matter as it will still most likely a minor event but I like those 1-2 inch guys to freshen up a snow pack. The signals for next week look great, I'll be surprised if we can't get a solid 6"+ storm out of that pattern, but with this winter Ya never know lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coltsfan1217 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Based on the teleconnections, active sub tropical jet stream, and the fact that Miller A's tend to do well here is a good sign. Now, we wait patently. Not even going to mention this storm to anyone until thursday or friday. I feel cheated after yesterday, not going to hype a storm six days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Based on the telecommunications, active sub tropical jet stream, and the fact that Miller A's tend to do well here is a good sign. Now, we wait patently. Not even going to mention this storm to anyone until thursday or friday. I feel cheated after yesterday, not going to hype a storm six days out I assume you mean teleconnections... Anyway I agree with you I don't care if every model has a major event, don't bother until Thursday at the earliest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I assume you mean teleconnections... Anyway I agree with you I don't care if every model has a major event, don't bother until Thursday at the earliest... maybe Verizon was talking with att who was talking with sprint to get things all aligned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Not going count on anything until the RGEM and GFS says so 24hrs out. They both did well at this range last two events. Yes Ray I hug the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 i don't see an app runner here, based on this run with dual H's over SD and just north of NY the H off the Atlantic is weakening....need to see the PNA pop that ridge over ID... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Storm looked nice for 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Storm looked nice for 6 hours GFS up to it's tricks again :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Not going count on anything until the RGEM and GFS says so 24hrs out. They both did well at this range last two events. Yes Ray I hug the RGEM. Don't blame you, I've been watching and it does well. I wouldn't necessarily bow before it, but certainly let it help guide your forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Not going count on anything until the RGEM and GFS says so 24hrs out. They both did well at this range last two events. Yes Ray I hug the RGEM. I've been thinking that way too, that the new GFS has been pretty good from 2, maybe even 3 days out. Kind of a short wheelhouse but if that's a strength it's good to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Don't blame you, I've been watching and it does well. I wouldn't necessarily bow before it, but certainly let it help guide your forecast. Yeah it's not perfect as nothing is and does do poorly every once in a while. I find its best range at 24 and 12 but it does a little worse inside 12 for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 the euro set up at 96hr to 120hr that's a big PNA crash need that to hold off see if the 1020H off Cali can strengthen delaying the break down of PNA if that can happen low will be in central GA instead of KY the atlantic its all about the pacific .....am i wrong? trying to learn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 we have a euro/snow vs gfs/rain battle. gem has low further south then to coast. here we go again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Snow to rain southeast PA....interior/nw burbs do well. Bigger storm than the bust for most places in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Snow to rain southeast PA....interior/nw burbs do well. Bigger storm than the bust for most places in PA. Way long away....I wouldn't give a guess till at least Fri if I was forecasting. Presently looks like a mixed mess in and around Philly. Let's go clipper for the time being... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Snow to rain southeast PA....interior/nw burbs do well. Bigger storm than the bust for most places in PA. Yea this has all the ear markings of a decent event north of the PA pike and west of 476. Should be a bigger event than the most recent fiasco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Yea this has all the ear markings of a decent event north of the PA pike and west of 476. Should be a bigger event than the most recent fiasco. Don't tell Cantore (TWC)....said they nailed it on a scale (9/10). Boston yes which was obvious, PA/NJ/NY not so much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 12z another run another solution great volatility in the mediumn range continues. Now a weak system passing south enough over running for 2-3" Better than the past couple heavy rain runs and more in line with ECM ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Don't tell Cantore (TWC)....said they nailed it on a scale (9/10). Boston yes which was obvious, PA/NJ/NY not so much... Well, actually, TWC backed off on that much quicker than many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 12Z Euro basically shears the storm out with minimal precip. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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