pstar3182 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Tighten up your posts ROSSI coastal http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015012806/gfs-ens_z500_mslp_us_22.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015012806/gfs-ens_mslp_uv850_us_22.png I can judge by the morning crew in attendance this will be a fun day!!!!! Cherry Sarsaparilly Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Euro(I know.....I know) digging that fri vort more than 12z, closes off H5 SE of LI now, day 3. Going to keep an eye on that EDIT - looks like it's more E of MTP than SE, but still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 This is just one of those times that the GFS beat the Euro. The Monday 1-26 GFS 12z total precip forecast was right on the money. NYC verification.......0.84 ISP verification........1.63 1-26 GFS 12z total precip forecast f54.jpg Amazing the 20 inch line starts around Uniondale . 20 miles East of Brooklyn . That's how close this was . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 6z. GFS GEFs south . Rossi The OP the last couple of runs cuts west of us BUT when you look at the ENS go south and - 2-meter temps they stay below freezing the entire event this is why Upton is forecasting as of now an all snow event likely with moderate accumulations http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=T2m&runtime=2015012806&fh=126&xpos=0&ypos=631 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2015012806&fh=264&xpos=0&ypos=604 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 This is so early and considering it is 5 days away this is only model disco and NO way a forecast . TOO EARLY GUYS AND GIRLS . 1 Euro OP is an all out snowstorm 2. The Ensemble mean takes LP south and to the BM 3 The usually amped low res control is south of both 4 The 6z GEFS is cold and all snow 5. The 6z GFS OP is further S that the 0z GFS OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Amazing the 20 inch line starts around Uniondale . 20 miles East of Brooklyn . That's how close this was . Sorry..I put this post in the wrong thread. Just moved it over to the bust thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The GFS has three peices phasing in, the Euro just phases with the energy down south and then the trailing polar jet phases in at the last second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The 00z EPS members are split into four main camps. First off about 20% don't have a storm at all. Most of what is left either has a similar track to the GFS or is south of the area. Maybe 5 or 6 individual members resemble the 00z OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 This is so early and considering it is 5 days away this is only model disco and NO way a forecast . TOO EARLY GUYS AND GIRLS . 1 Euro OP is an all out snowstorm 2. The Ensemble mean takes LP south and to the BM 3 The usually amped low res control is south of both 4 The 6z GEFS is cold and all snow 5. The 6z GFS OP is further S that the 0z GFS OP Good discussion. I'd also add that if the ensemble forecast of an AO- works out, a colder and snowier outcome might be more likely than the milder and wetter one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Good discussion. I'd also add that if the ensemble forecast of an AO- works out, a colder and snowier outcome might be more likely than the milder and wetter one. There is an -AO dip before the storm, so it's certainly possible. After that the AO goes positive on the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Good discussion. I'd also add that if the ensemble forecast of an AO- works out, a colder and snowier outcome might be more likely than the milder and wetter one. Yes the AO flips and we get a quasi ridge bridge at 120 , so there may be enough of a block and that`s why we see the slight shift S in some of the guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Upton YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK FOR THIS SYSTEM IS HIGH AT THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY TRACK FOR THE LOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY SNOW FOR OUR AREA. IF THIS IS THE CASE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW. SINCE THIS IS A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...MAXIMUM AMOUNTS WOULD BE MODERATE - LESS THAN A FOOT. HOWEVER...THERE IS A POSSIBLY THAT THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY RAIN AND POSSIBLY 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID. THIS...COMBINED WITH MELTING SNOW...COULD RESULT IN FLOODING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Upton already have snow likely in my forecast for Sunday night and Monday. Sunday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Monday Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Yes the AO flips and we get a quasi ridge bridge at 120 , so there may be enough of a block and that`s why we see the slight shift S in some of the guidance http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cpc/cpc_NAM_f120wbg.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_ensm.shtml NAO Neutral outlook in sync with Feb 2nd threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 This is why I think the Euro might have the right idea with the Monday stormAO will be negative but risingNAO will also be slightly negative but rising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cpc/cpc_NAM_f120wbg.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_ensm.shtml nao.gif NAO Neutral outlook in sync with Feb 2nd threat Nuet yes , but heading NEG as we get closer to the event , That`s why I call it a Quasi BRIDGE as it attempts to get there . You see the POS pop at 500 . Is it strong enough ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 This is why I think the Euro might have the right idea with the Monday storm AO will be negative but rising NAO will also be slightly negative but rising The AO rages positive after that period. that could end the cold outbreak by second week of FeB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 2/1/11 is the #2 analog over the East at 120hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 6z GEFS BL is cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Nuet yes , but heading NEG , That`s why I call it a Quasi BRIDGE as it attempts to get there . You see the POS pop at 500 . Is it strong enough ? Paulie the combo is good --- 8-12" max potential because it still runs thru hot -quick- this is a snowstorm within today's guidance parameters the bubble is 12"----pushing that is just asking for disappointment QPF fields from the WPC support this as the max / ATM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Paulie the combo is good --- 8-12" max potential because it still runs thru hot -quick- this is a snowstorm within today's guidance parameters the bubble is 12"----pushing that is just asking for disappointment QPF fields from the WPC support this as the max / ATM IMO I was thinking 6 max and ZRP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Paulie the combo is good --- 8-12" max potential because it still runs thru hot -quick- this is a snowstorm within today's guidance parameters the bubble is 12"----pushing that is just asking for disappointment QPF fields from the WPC support this as the max / ATM Whoa, are you ACTUALLY thinking snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The AO rages positive after that period. that could end the cold outbreak by second week of FeB This doesnt really belong here...but nyc is -1.8 for january. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 If Tommy is in for Snow I will go all in ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Whoa, are you ACTUALLY thinking snow? Dano the instigator--lol without bias..... from my end this is a pattern snowbirds can use for reference after the system passes thru they can play with their 12" rulers--- not tape measures dm step thru this guidance---hard to pull out raindrops within it ---but WTHDIK blue >>cold bubble anomaly argues for snow in the metro http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850std_f144_us.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 OT but that is some serious cold in Canada on that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 OT but that is some serious cold in Canada on that map. KNYC has a shot at below 0 in the next 10 days Tues AM looks to be the shot . There will be plenty of snow cover around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Dano the instigator--lol without bias..... from my end this is a pattern snowbirds can use for reference after the system passes thru they can play with their 12" rulers--- not tape measures dm 41UecpgPRXL._SX522_.jpg step thru this guidance---hard to pull out raindrops within it ---but WTHDIK blue >>cold bubble anomaly argues for snow in the metro http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850std_f144_us.html Good to see you on board here... You nailed the last two storms for the area! Keep it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Good to see you on board here... You nailed the last two storms for the area! Keep it up! 830 Lets put the scorecards away.....it just ruffles feathers but thanks... if you made that take away from the info I posted Mt Holly Snippet for Monday SUN AFTERNOON THRU MON NIGHT...MORE WEATHER ACTION AS THE NEXT SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES SAT NIGHT THEN TRACKS UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS OUR AREA SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. THE SYSTEM IS SHOWN SCOOPING UP PLENTY OF MOISTURE BEFORE IT ARRIVES. THE GFS SHOWS A TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...THE EC JUST SOUTH. TEMPS AND POPS MOSTLY WPC LIKE WITH A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR BETTER ISC COORDINATION. CHC SNOW SUN AFTERNOON...THEN LIKELY SNOW SUN NIGHT. SNOW CHANGES TO RAIN S/E I-95 MONDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF REFINEMENTS...SO THIS IS THE BEST FCST FOR NOW. PAY ATTENTION TO THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Hope you guys get smoked on Monday. Man do we feel for you, absolutely brutal bust. Euro verbatim (for what it's worth) would do much to sooth frayed nerves. Probably would exceed my all-time pack from Jan '11 in Beantown if it pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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