JSantanaNYC Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Euro shows a MECS for NYC. Just remember what just happened and look at all the models not just one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 0z Euro doesn't cut through PA this time. Goes off the nj coast near Atlantic City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 ECM.png 00Z ECM @ 120 hours out.. euro is clearly faster by about 6hrs... GFS still has low placement over northern Louisiana at hr 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Euro shows a MECS for NYC. Just remember what just happened and look at all the models not just one. GFS also has a major snowstorm just drives a little too far north.. Northern burbs on the GFS have a warning level snow... I agree 100% let's not get caught with our pants down like yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Euro shows a MECS for NYC. Just remember what just happened and look at all the models not just one. Just curious if you have the precipitation maps what does it show for down this way? Thank you in advance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Honestly the Euro solution is much more believable. I know nobody wants to hear that now, but the pattern looks too progressive for the GFS solution, plus there seems to be a good amount of blocking to the north. Let's not forget that the Euro was the first to sniff to the SNE HECS, and was actually more accurate further from the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Headed to bed (for real this time lol), but Euro is 10-15" of snow for NYC (wx bell snow maps though).....let's not get too into it though now...looks like the low tracks close to the coast so I'm sure there'd be mixing on this run. Give it a few days and see where we're at. I know I won't feel comfortable until it's on our doorsteps. Goodnight all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Can someone post a weenie map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Headed to bed (for real this time lol), but Euro is 10-15" of snow for NYC (wx bell snow maps though).....let's not get too into it though now...looks like the low tracks close to the coast so I'm sure there'd be mixing on this run. Give it a few days and see where we're at. I know I won't feel comfortable until it's on our doorsteps. Goodnight allDamn you euro sucking us back in. The differences at h5 are not all that large between the GFS and Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Can someone post a weenie map Do you really want more Euro snow maps lol. The only thing that matters is that its a better run for the area. Pointless to ogle over day 5 snow amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Damn you euro sucking us back in. The differences at h5 are not all that large between the GFS and Euro The king trying to regain his crown and overthrow his evil brother?!?! Lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Do you really want more Euro snow maps lol. The only thing that matters is that its a better run for the area. Pointless to odle over day 5 snow amounts. my intentions were certainly not to "odle" over them...I've been doing this long enough I don't need to be told not to take a weenie map serious 5 days from event lol ...I like to save them to my phone for after an event to compare runs and see what verified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 After yesterday, we can't take one five hours from an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Euro I appreciate it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 my intentions were certainly not to "odle" over them...I've been doing this long enough I don't need to be told not to take a weenie map serious 5 days from event lol ...I like to save them to my phone for after an event to compare runs and see what verified Fair I guess. I just think after this past storm these boards would be better off with fewer clown maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I think all that can be said at this time is that this period has potential.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Fair I guess. I just think after this past storm these boards would be better off with fewer clown maps. I would Agree but whether you show the map or give the qpf output you can't hide how much precip the model is putting out... Weenies are gonna run with it... I find them amusing, and interesting to look at that's all...have a good night all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I think all that can be said at this time is that this period has potential.. Certainly does. Euro shows a potent Miller A on it's tail just 3 days later as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Euro Go home Euro and every other 5 day accumulation map, you're drunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Certainly does. Euro shows a potent Miller A on it's tail just 3 days later as well. Yeah I was just telling my room mate about that follow up one.. (as well as the first one that we are discussing) because she suffers from Fibro and PAD really bad..I put the disclaimer though IF the model is correct because after yesterdays debacle I am a little more then skeptical of solutions until 48 and under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Yeah I was just telling my room mate about that follow up one.. (as well as the first one that we are discussing) because she suffers from Fibro and PAD really bad..I put the disclaimer though IF the model is correct because after yesterdays debacle I am a little more then skeptical of solutions until 48 and under Very true, I'd really want 100% model consensus before feeling confident in any storm after this. I would not start getting excited until the GFS/CMC catch on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 When are we talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The Euro usually does a lot better with miller A storms, which is what this one would be but credibility has obviously gone down the toilet. This could be another test of the "new" gfs model although it's still going back and forth not surprisingly given we're several days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/model/mod/index.php?type=00-GFS-WLD-850-temp-0-1 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml trends second image day 6-7 track path idea {North not East} February Test Bed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The 6Z GFS has flooding rains followed by a flash freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 With pattern progressive enough still and Canadian high getting into perfect position Sunday night, this looks like a 8-12 inch snow for NYC and LI. Almost a lock at this point... This looks like a very high confidence event as it gets closer. Any model showing a cutter or west of NYC is wrong with Sunday 2/1/2015 pattern that 100% does not support a cutter at all. Mets please add your thoughts, thanks.The clipper on Friday morning is our 50/50 low. We are absolutely golden for a winter storm warning event on Monday. We are golden for this..... This will go just SE of ACY and track to near Block Island. I would bet this. NYC does better in this and could see a foot. I am not wishcasting, just looking at pattern alone. M easy does it son.... but your enthusiasm is Understood plenty of cold to grab onto from the north http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015012806/gfs_T2m_us_22.png Atlantic High Pressure Location on this gfs run gives some credence for a coastal ATM -imo- the 1024mb HP area in western atlantic wiggle room http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/gfs_atlantic_126_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif 48hr window for thread starters---is not to much to ask??? euro -ens feb 3 spot check backs up the coastal idea http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2015012800/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_eus_7.png if images lag---click refresh inside linked pages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lindywx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 6z GFS has Sunday night storm going from Harrisburgh to Providence. 0Z had it from Pittsburgh to Albany So baby steps in the rught direction Gotta watch the 850mb low which is closed off over Ohio and torches the mid levels to +6 in a hurry. So we have some work to get this to an all snow event Best guess right now is a good front end thump on LI follow by a quick change over A mostly snow event in the city with some mixing and an all out snowstorm north and west of the city A classic 1970's and 80's winter storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 6z. GFS GEFs south . Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 6z. GFS GEFs south . Rossi Tighten up your posts ROSSI coastal http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015012806/gfs-ens_z500_mslp_us_22.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015012806/gfs-ens_mslp_uv850_us_22.png I can judge by the morning crew in attendance this will be a fun day!!!!! Cherry Sarsaparilly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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