RU848789 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Dude, we were classmates. Form your CV I don't think you spent a lot of time in Shakespeare or Abnormal psych classes tho. I almost majored in English, as I always loved literature and writing (took a few English electives) - my other choice was meteorology, but I went for chem eng'g. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 If its not all frozen for NYC, it will freeze on contact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I almost majored in English, as I always loved literature and writing (took a few English electives) - my other choice was meteorology, but I went for chem eng'g. I almost majored in English, as I always loved literature and writing (took a few English electives) - my other choice was meteorology, but I went for chem eng'g. I almost majored in English, as I always loved literature and writing (took a few English electives) - my other choice was meteorology, but I went for chem eng'g. I did major in English. Regret it to this day,though I made a living writing for awhile. hard sciences were out of the question, I am math disabled. I think we are in for a sleet fest from what I am reading here. Seems like one of those years we can't get it going in these parts snowise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I guess this place is dead because of the 12z GFS. Fair enough. They are using the 12z Discussion thread.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Nam is colder and wetter. 2m never leaves northern monmouth county and 850s about to nyc, all snow and a little sleet nyc. And a lot of snow If the winds stay northerly or maybe even easterly, no way will there be any rain. The airmass at the surface is just too cold. The changes to rain on some guidance are predicated on a wind shift to ESE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Ya know, when I was a kid, 8-10 inches as depicted on the NWS map for my area, would have been considered a huge event in the early to mid 70's. We have become spoiled over the last 20 years.I well remember that after the "Mayor Lindsay" storm we had about 6" for 1/1/1973, and 10" for a one-shot storm in the 1974-5 craphole of a winter. Then we had 1977-8, which was spectacular and 1978-9, which featured PD 1. Then 4/6/1982 and Megalopolis, one in January 1987 and that was pretty much it (maybe I'm leaving off one or two) until March 1993. Things at least were good every few winters until the millenium, since which time we've been spoiled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I wish people would stop calling it the rain snow line when discussing the 850s. The surface is going to be below freezing for most so it's really an snow/ice line with this storm Sent from my iPhone Have to disagree as I think the south shore of LI could very well see a cold rain possibly. Perhaps not for an extended period but it has happened before in these situations. And with this storm and its tight gradient you could very well see a very narrow line from snow to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Call this one the kitchen sink storm, every type of precip likely, 4-7 inches snow eventually at either end, ice pellets may be a large player as shallow freezing layers remain in place ... trend to 10-15 inches snow in Albany so larger amounts going north up Hudson valley ... freezing rain potential parts of n/c NJ, southern metro NYC and parts of LI. very icy roads by end of storm with rapidly falling temps and freeze-thaw cycle ending. this seems likely to be a higher impact storm than the busted blizzard even if snowfall amounts are similar or lower in case of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Seems Doorman has lost his touch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Seems Doorman has lost his touch. Also can't find his CPU, apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Seems Doorman has lost his touch. Also can't find his CPU, apparently. Whoa.... the storm missed us ???? whats the deal??? http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/StormTotalPrecip/StormTotalSnowFcst.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2015020100/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_10.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Whoa.... the storm missed us ???? whats the deal??? http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/StormTotalPrecip/StormTotalSnowFcst.png StormTotalSnowFcst (1).png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2015020100/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_10.png nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_10.png Given the projected slop-fest . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Whoa.... the storm missed us ???? whats the deal??? http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/StormTotalPrecip/StormTotalSnowFcst.png StormTotalSnowFcst (1).png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2015020100/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_10.png nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_10.png I love that map. I think upton is right on the money. Front end dump gets everyone well ala 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Middlesex County, once again, is not handled well. How can you have WSWatches to my west in Somerset and east in Staten Island and have 6" or more forecast for 2/3 of the county and not have a WSWatch up? I'm just about in their 8-10" swath across the northern part of the county. Have no idea if this map will post correctly as I often see old maps post despite pasting the correct map... Just remembered I posted this, this morning - good to see the NWS came around and added Middlesex County to the WS Watch, although they also lowered snowfall amounts at 4 pm vs 4 am by about 1-2" across the board. We look to really have a very steep gradient possible, from 1-2" to 4-6" (where I am) across the county. Unless the GFS verifies and we get mostly rain, lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 GGEM is a big rainstorm for NYC after some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Was perusing this paper on forecasting snow density and came across this rather pertinent chart showing the most basic ensemble of variables and height levels necessary to review while assessing snow-liquid ratios. Obviously this applies chiefly to synoptic snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 GGEM is a big rainstorm for NYC after some snow it gave me 15 inches of snow this morning...rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 This storm is a beast on the radar.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 why two threads? one for models and one for discussion? please only one thread, this does not make sense at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 why two threads? one for models and one for discussion? please only one thread, this does not make sense at all. When there's 300-400 people viewing that want PBPs it's easier then mixing model talk with storm discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Winter storm warning for nyc. 4-8 inches with less towards the south shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Winter storm warning for nyc. 4-8 inches with less towards the south shore. That looks way too high right now, I would go 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 That looks way too high right now, I would go 2-4 Tv media showed a snowmap and has the south shore getting 2-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Uptons snowmap now has 6-8 inches for nyc and the boroughs with over .15 of ice. Sanitation issued a snow alert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 850 guidance near real time http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16&parm=thck&underlay=1&source=1 I will follow the Critical Thickness (850's) all day real time ATM may be a touch south of the NAM prog it may be a bit early in the game to trust it but I would keep my eyes on this such a close call for many in the region WPC track- frame 1 SPC MSLP location- frame 2 (rap forecast) SPC Critical Thickness-NAM comp-frame 3 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s16/thck/thck.gif?1422788878924 http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/06/NE/namNE_prec_cthk_021.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 When there's 300-400 people viewing that want PBPs it's easier then mixing model talk with storm discussion Disagree. One thread would be better. Regardless, just posted this in the model thread and thought it would be relevant here... Went to bed after the Euro and assumed I'd wake up to many of the watches being dropped and much lower snowfall forecasts, especially for Central Jersey. Wrong. All the same counties are now under winter storm warnings, including Middlesex, where my snow fall forecast was actually increased a bit - although the gradient is even steeper, from 1=2" in the southern edge of the county to 6-8" in the northern quarter of the county (N of 287, which is east - west in our area), where I live. That's a very steep gradient over about 30 miles. Here's the relevant portion of the AFD and the latest map: THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST IS MAINLY DERIVED FROM THE 00Z NAM. THE 00Z GFS LOOKED TO HAVE TO INTENSE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IN TURN ALLOWS FOR MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE ECMWF IS STILL ON THE COOLER END OF THE SPECTRUM WITH THE NAM IN BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS. THE SREF AND WPC QPF FORECAST WAS USED AS WELL WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON QPF IN THIS PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN ADDITIONAL SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA IN THIS PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I miss the old runs where it gave the area a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Do you think ice storm warnings will go up for southern Nassau and Suffolk for .50 inch or greater of ZR. That would be my call. This is the rare ZR storm event for these areas. Any mets on here agree with latest 6Z models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 There not expecting .50 of ice so no ice storm warnings won't be issued.... more like winter weather advisory will be issued!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.