Zelocita Weather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Looks like the gfs is 5-6" on the front end and another 1-3" on the back end...with sleet/ice in the middle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Middlesex County, once again, is not handled well. How can you have WSWatches to my west in Somerset and east in Staten Island and have 6" or more forecast for 2/3 of the county and not have a WSWatch up? I'm just about in their 8-10" swath across the northern part of the county. Have no idea if this map will post correctly as I often see old maps post despite pasting the correct map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Looks like the Sref is north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I started a 12z model thread so we can keep discussion and model discussion seperate again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DRVTS Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Middlesex County, once again, is not handled well. How can you have WSWatches to my west in Somerset and east in Staten Island and have 6" or more forecast for 2/3 of the county and not have a WSWatch up? I'm just about in their 8-10" swath across the northern part of the county. Have no idea if this map will post correctly as I often see old maps post despite pasting the correct map... Where do you find this map. I know there is a link at noaa site, but I cant remember how to get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Where do you find this map. I know there is a link at noaa site, but I cant remember how to get it I can never find it either..lol I just Google OKX or DIX snow map and it pops right up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I was a sophomore at Rutgers in New Brunswick and we got a foot of snow, with no changeover to rain, so the changeover line would've been to the south of the Raritan, at least. Was an amazing heavy, wet snow - I remember we had massive snowball fight with dorms from both sides of George Street firing snowballs at each other across that street and any car going by got hammered from both sides. You are 100% correct and I am 100% wrong because I sort of forgot for a second where Long Branch is on the Jersey shore relative to 40 N...the correct line would be a Philly / Toms River line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Where do you find this map. I know there is a link at noaa site, but I cant remember how to get it They hide it well on their winter weather page. I've emailed them to suggest they put a highly visible map/link right next to the CWA map, like they used to have, but they declined. http://www.weather.gov/phi/winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I was a sophomore at Rutgers in New Brunswick and we got a foot of snow, with no changeover to rain, so the changeover line would've been to the south of the Raritan, at least. Was an amazing heavy, wet snow - I remember we had massive snowball fight with dorms from both sides of George Street firing snowballs at each other across that street and any car going by got hammered from both sides. Dude, we were classmates. Form your CV I don't think you spent a lot of time in Shakespeare or Abnormal psych classes tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/hemi/index.php?type=n_pacific-ir-48 hard core weenie loop of the day tip: slow down the loop speed use color enhancement from menu options watch our shortwave for this system break off from the monster PAC storm it dives down and in this is the spark plug for our storm http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/archiveviewer.php?sector=19&parm=epvl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 We know it's not actual rain, product of habit to write r/s We know it's not actual rain, product of habit to write r/s Wouldn't it be mostly sleet when it mixes with this kind of setup? Kind of a front end thump, some periods of sleet and back to snow? That's a profile I have seen often in these parts ( central NJ SI western SI area ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/hemi/index.php?type=n_pacific-ir-48 hard core weenie loop of the day tip: slow down the loop speed use color enhancement from menu options watch our shortwave for this system break off from the monster PAC storm it dives down and in sw.gif DM, love the graphics. Don't know how to read em, but they always look impressive. Always liked your avatars too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jets Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Wow srefs only give NYC a couple of inches of snow. Not a good sign. Hope I am wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Wow srefs only give NYC a couple of inches of snow. Not a good sign. Hope I am wrong yeah they are a third of what they were pretty much - my 3-6 call may end up high or low end may verify (and no im not riding the SREF for that call ha) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Wow srefs only give NYC a couple of inches of snow. Not a good sign. Hope I am wrong Why is that a bad sign? Listen I'm not going to hump the colder/snowier solutions but can we stop worrying about what the nam or sref's say? They are our worst guidance...it's really not debatable. Use a Gfs/euro/ggem compromise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I really think the low end we could see in NYC is 4" plus some ice. Set your expectations accordingly and this will be a fun storm to track. We could definitely get double that. I think Upton has it about right. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Why is that a bad sign? Listen I'm not going to hump the colder/snowier solutions but can we stop worrying about what the nam or sref's say? They are our worst guidance...it's really not debatable. Use a Gfs/euro/ggem compromise. true, but... SREF's had consistently been between 5-6" for the last 3 runs... now down to 2 with very few members showing more than 2"... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2_means.php?YMD=20150131&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=LGA&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=4&mLAT=37.77478874678&mLON=-96.042896875&mTYP=roadmap its all about recognizing trends.. and knowing which ones to jump on.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 We might get 2" alone in the first hour of the front end dump. Toss Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 We might get 2" alone in the first hour of the front end dump. Toss Sent from my iPhone Toss? Thats more likely than a full snowstorm at this point for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Toss? Thats more likely than a full snowstorm at this point for NYC. I mean toss the SREFs showing 2" total storm. I think the front end dump will be 4-5" Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Toss? Thats more likely than a full snowstorm at this point for NYC. ant jumping off the snowstorm train -- wow things MUST be going to hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 true, but... SREF's had consistently been between 5-6" for the last 3 runs... now down to 2 with very few members showing more than 2"... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2_means.php?YMD=20150131&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=LGA&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=4&mLAT=37.77478874678&mLON=-96.042896875&mTYP=roadmap its all about recognizing trends.. and knowing which ones to jump on.. Oh I know how to recognize trends, I just know to ignore the nam/sref combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Teleconnections and the Upcoming Storm... Currently, the AO is -0.631 and the PNA is -0.647. An AO-/PNA- setup is forecast for the onset of the 2/1-2 storm. For the February 1-15, 1950-2014 period, there were 31 storms that brought 4" or more snow to NYC. The following statistics apply to AO-/PNA- setups: 4"-8" Snowstorms: 44% > 8" Snowstorms: 15% 12" or more Snowstorms: 11% (1 storm, the February 1969 Lindsay Storm) In sum, the current teleconnections suggest that a blockbuster snowstorm is probably unlikely for the New York City area. Instead, a lesser storm, probably with some mixing, would be more likely. Should the AO dive or the PNA rise, odds of a larger snowfall could increase, but the time available for such an outcome is short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Toss? Thats more likely than a full snowstorm at this point for NYC. Yes toss. Always toss. They broke the sref's when they took out the eta members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 My call for now for nyc is snow mixing with or changing to sleet or freezing rain and back to snow before ending. 4-8" or 6-12" both seem reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Do models tend to underestimate CAD more or WAA more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Do models tend to underestimate CAD more or WAA more? It's a little of both. They underestimate surface temp CAD and warm up surface too fast but they also sometimes don't warm the mid layers (850/925) fast enough. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Do you guys think we should go with 2 threads for now, like a banter/basic discussion/anthony begging for a foot of snow, and a more legitimate model discussion thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Nam is colder and wetter. 2m never leaves northern monmouth county and 850s about to nyc, all snow and a little sleet nyc. And a lot of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 As bluewave said yesterday, the Euro may have had the better idea not turning the low track north til late, the NAM made a move towards that here with the low not really making the NE kick til its near our area or off the coast, the NAM was colder and further south for sure through 06-09Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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