MJO812 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Winter Storm watch for NYC. 5-10 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 6Z runs 48hr 2m temp comp GFS Nam Rgem let the mets tell you what time to switch to the meso models Upton increased snow progs at 3:00 am http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php WPC's rain/snow line prog for Monday 7:00am http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/bawx_nav.php?imgtyp=ndfd&arrval=6&vtime=Mon_12Z&ptime=Mon_00Z&ntime= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Euro ensembles agree with op And also the control run. 6+ for the city. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 another fun tool--Experimental http://preview.weather.gov/graphical/ screen capture nice clean simple Lets hope this thread goes into storm mode this morning and cuts out the nonsense...... http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/US.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Can anyone who has EuroWx post the hr54 freezing line map for the 0z? Back here in PA, on the GFS, I go above 0c at this hour. No question 00z Euro is definitely warmer at 850 and 925 vs the 12z run with the freezing line splitting Long Island when at 12z it was south.image.jpgimage.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 And also the control run. 6+ for the city. Not bad. Ya know, when I was a kid, 8-10 inches as depicted on the NWS map for my area, would have been considered a huge event in the early to mid 70's. We have become spoiled over the last 20 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 2m.gif 6Z runs 48hr 2m temp comp GFS Nam Rgem let the mets tell you what time to switch to the meso models Upton increased snow progs at 3:00 am http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php StormTotalSnowFcst.png WPC's rain/snow line prog for Monday 7:00am http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/bawx_nav.php?imgtyp=ndfd&arrval=6&vtime=Mon_12Z&ptime=Mon_00Z&ntime= The increase is likely because they think the models may be underestimating the cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I think this storm will bear great similarity to the one on April 6, 1982. That event, when the barometer began to fall over Utah on Sunday night, 4 April...and the storm quickly intensified...snow amounts in the 10 inch range for Chicago & Detroit...and a very sharp cutoff with rain v snow...with 4/6/1982...very little snow fell south of 40 N...roughly from Philadelphia over to Long Branch. However, for northern NJ, NYC, & LI...it was generally 8 to 12 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I remeber that one well, Pamela. I was 14 at the time and we had close to 12" in Allentown. I think that was opening day of baseball season and a lot of games were cancelled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I remeber that one well, Pamela. I was 14 at the time and we had close to 12" in Allentown. I think that was opening day of baseball season and a lot of games were cancelled. Yes, it was opening day at the Yankee Stadium and the game was cancelled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I remeber that one well, Pamela. I was 14 at the time and we had close to 12" in Allentown. I think that was opening day of baseball season and a lot of games were cancelled. Quite a bit of thunder & lightning that day and sooo cold...temps in the mid 20's on an April afternoon. A blizzard warning was in fact issued by NYC NWS. After the storm, temperatures in parts of Michigan fell as low as the teens below zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Quite a bit of thunder & lightning that day and sooo cold...temps in the mid 20's on an April afternoon. A blizzard warning was in fact issues by NYC NWS. After the storm, temperatures in parts of Michigan fell as low as the teens below zero. Thinking back, I don't think we had any thunder with that one, but we did have heavy snow for a good part of the afternoon that day. The following morning, I think we dipped into the low single digits, which was quite impressive for the time of year. Edited...I stand corrected. Low temp on 4/17/82 was 16 degrees at Allentown. We did get 11.4" out of the storm, so my snow number was close! http://www.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=phi 1982-04-06 39 18 11.4 1982-04-07 31 16 0.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Quite a bit of thunder & lightning that day and sooo cold...temps in the mid 20's on an April afternoon. A blizzard warning was in fact issues by NYC NWS. After the storm, temperatures in parts of Michigan fell as low as the teens below zero.I recorded a low temp of 17 at my station following that storm, lowest I've seen in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Yes, it was opening day at the Yankee Stadium and the game was cancelled. I remember it too, I was in college and did office cleaning at a chemical plant, It was bizarre seeing all that cold and snow in April. I have seen 3 serious April snows in my life; so it is pretty rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I think this storm will bear great similarity to the one on April 6, 1982. That event, when the barometer began to fall over Utah on Sunday night, 4 April...and the storm quickly intensified...snow amounts in the 10 inch range for Chicago & Detroit...and a very sharp cutoff with rain v snow...with 4/6/1982...very little snow fell south of 40 N...roughly from Philadelphia over to Long Branch. However, for northern NJ, NYC, & LI...it was generally 8 to 12 inches of snow. The 09-21Z period Monday is somewhat similar in how the low redevelopment happens, I don't know if this closes off enough, but I have been watching the 14-21Z period for possible backlash snows here, the GEM and UKMET might be more indicative of it than the GFS/NAM/Euro are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I recorded a low temp of 17 at my station following that storm, lowest I've seen in April. The Park fell to 21 F the next morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The 09-21Z period Monday is somewhat similar in how the low redevelopment happens, I don't know if this closes off enough, but I have been watching the 14-21Z period for possible backlash snows here, the GEM and UKMET might be more indicative of it than the GFS/NAM/Euro are. Weather reports were spotty in those days; but local newspapers did indicate unofficial totals of 15 inches over the East End and snow lingering out there well after sunset Tuesday...the storm was huge off to the northeast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Here is what I have now for NYC, -SN 03-06Z, SN/+SN 07-10Z, PL 10-13Z, -SN/SN 14-21Z. I think about 3-4 inches on the front end, not a clue on the back end, if this really closes quickly we could see another 2-4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Here is what I have now for NYC, -SN 03-06Z, SN/+SN 07-10Z, PL 10-13Z, -SN/SN 14-21Z. I think about 3-4 inches on the front end, not a clue on the back end, if this really closes quickly we could see another 2-4 inches.Agreed with this for now though this keeps ticking north and the mid levels continue to show more warmth. Unsure if dynamic cooling will overcome the mid levels or not at this point. Gonna be close as it stands now....if 12z ticks any farther n or warmer then all bets are off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The CAD is so strong with this storm that the 0z Euro only has the surface freezing line as far north Ocean Co NJ 18z Monday with 850 mb 0 only briefly to the LI South Shore. This would allow some icing and or rimming of flakes for a few hours at best wherever this zone actually verifies. But 850's quickly collapse south as the low deepens offshore after 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 http://www.weather.gov/okx/winter Min/Max snow progs experimental max is out of sync-fwiw http://www.weather.gov/okx/stormtotals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 http://www.weather.gov/okx/winter Min/Max snow progs mmp.gif experimental max is out of sync-fwiw http://www.weather.gov/okx/stormtotals These mim/max progs always contradict actual forcast totals.. How can a max potential be 11.4" and a forcast is 10-14" lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 http://www.weather.gov/okx/winter Min/Max snow progs mmp.gif experimental max is out of sync-fwiw http://www.weather.gov/okx/stormtotals im not too shy to make a prediction for NYC.. 3-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I think this storm will bear great similarity to the one on April 6, 1982. That event, when the barometer began to fall over Utah on Sunday night, 4 April...and the storm quickly intensified...snow amounts in the 10 inch range for Chicago & Detroit...and a very sharp cutoff with rain v snow...with 4/6/1982...very little snow fell south of 40 N...roughly from Philadelphia over to Long Branch. However, for northern NJ, NYC, & LI...it was generally 8 to 12 inches of snow.WINS 1010 , at the time, called that storm life threatening and we had thunder snow with it. I even remember a beautiful pic. Of the 1 train by Yankee stadium showing whit pavement , even at that late a date climatelogically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Hey guys good morning down here in fla. i left new york with grass showing and coming back to a significant snowcover and frigid temps .This next event coming up hopefully will not have significant ice accumilation i am flying in tuesday ouch.Good luck on the storm track you know ma nature throws curveballs but the trend is your friend .see ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Just as an FYI, 4k nam looks to keep nyc, northern Jersey, and northern LI in all snow.. Looks that the r/s line cute right through long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I think this storm will bear great similarity to the one on April 6, 1982. That event, when the barometer began to fall over Utah on Sunday night, 4 April...and the storm quickly intensified...snow amounts in the 10 inch range for Chicago & Detroit...and a very sharp cutoff with rain v snow...with 4/6/1982...very little snow fell south of 40 N...roughly from Philadelphia over to Long Branch. However, for northern NJ, NYC, & LI...it was generally 8 to 12 inches of snow. I was a sophomore at Rutgers in New Brunswick and we got a foot of snow, with no changeover to rain, so the changeover line would've been to the south of the Raritan, at least. Was an amazing heavy, wet snow - I remember we had massive snowball fight with dorms from both sides of George Street firing snowballs at each other across that street and any car going by got hammered from both sides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I wish people would stop calling it the rain snow line when discussing the 850s. The surface is going to be below freezing for most so it's really an snow/ice line with this storm Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I wish people would stop calling it the rain snow line when discussing the 850s. The surface is going to be below freezing for most so it's really an snow/ice line with this storm Sent from my iPhone We know it's not actual rain, product of habit to write r/s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 We know it's not actual rain, product of habit to write r/s I figured you did, but some read that as gospel and then start making things up Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.