swamplover56 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 My bad too 100 miles north of Nyc is basically jackpot was referring to basically our sub forum regardless great storm to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 the 50/50 really suppressed the height field on this run...forces the storm to go due east. Great run for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Wxbell maps count any frozen precip as snow. I'm going by total precip not the weenie map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Chicago Detroit nyc jackpot on euro don't see that often It's all the same street. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 My bad too 100 miles north of Nyc is basically jackpot was referring to basically our sub forum regardless great storm to track True Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It's all the same street. Great dead reference. See u in Chicago on the 4 th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 euro creeping north with snow max, just like it crept northeast with the blizzard/non-blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 the 50/50 really suppressed the height field on this run...forces the storm to go due east. Great run for the area. If you mean your area, not quite unless you're a fan of sleet after 3-5" of snow? What confluence there is looks to be very transient as there's no blocking ahead of it to keep the confluence in place. It's all advancing along quickly which is how this low is able to trend north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 If you mean your area, not quite unless you're a fan of sleet after 3-5" of snow? What confluence there is looks to be very transient as there's no blocking ahead of it to keep the confluence in place. It's all advancing along quickly which is how this low is able to trend north. Do u think the euro 850 depiction is too warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Updated WPC QPF thru 7:00am Monday http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1422686479930 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWisher Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 No question 00z Euro is definitely warmer at 850 and 925 vs the 12z run with the freezing line splitting Long Island when at 12z it was south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 If you mean your area, not quite unless you're a fan of sleet after 3-5" of snow? What confluence there is looks to be very transient as there's no blocking ahead of it to keep the confluence in place. It's all advancing along quickly which is how this low is able to trend north. i'm in north central NJ...Euro is more than 3-5" for this area. Granted, I'm on the edge but it's not like the euro made a huge jump ..ticked north a bit yes but the big changes we saw on the models yesterday from this storm being a DC special to what it is now should be getting close to the limit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Do u think the euro 850 depiction is too warm? It trended north from 12z, that's what I see most of all. Every model tonight went north from 12z. I can't see the 850mb low track but I'd imagine that's on or north of NYC, meaning lots of sleet mixing in, Rain won't be a concern outside of the immediate shorelines, but the big snow totals are very likely to be north of the city. If 12z doesn't go back south to a degree, I think it's about a done deal-3 to 6 in the city, maybe 2 to 4 if the front end weakens in future runs (typical, as dry air eats up the front advance of snow sometimes), more north, and then tons of sleet and freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 No question 00z Euro is definitely warmer at 850 and 925 vs the 12z run with the freezing line splitting Long Island when at 12z it was south. image.jpg image.jpg That resembles the good ole "smell the rain to see the snow" snowstorms our region has seen in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Wondering if the shift north is done at this point. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Wondering if the shift north is done at this point. Thoughts? Who knows...we seem to have a decent consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 If you mean your area, not quite unless you're a fan of sleet after 3-5" of snow? What confluence there is looks to be very transient as there's no blocking ahead of it to keep the confluence in place. It's all advancing along quickly which is how this low is able to trend north. If you mean your area, not quite unless you're a fan of sleet after 3-5" of snow? What confluence there is looks to be very transient as there's no blocking ahead of it to keep the confluence in place. It's all advancing along quickly which is how this low is able to trend north. Could be 3-5 of mostly sleet too. seen that happen before. March 2007 comes to mind.Which sucks IMO. Butbetter than freezing rain, which I never want to see. Hurt myself pretty bad a few weeks back with a minor event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Euro ensembles agree with op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEC Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The Binghamton office has us under a Winter Storm Watch now for the possibility of seven or more inches of snow on Monday. (Seems they always lowball that predicted amount early on). The watch covers northeast Pennsylvania and most of central New York except northern Oneida County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The rain / snow line on like the 6z NAM looks 5 or 10 miles south of the 0z run...so this obsession with a "north" trend on the basis of one model suite seems to have been halted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 In fairness to JM1220, who must have made 40 posts in this thread saying the snowstorm will not come to fruition in the NYC / Long Island area...he at one time lived in Long Beach...which is about 5 miles or so south east of Kennedy Airport and is the worst location for snow in either NYC or Long Island as events that are snow most everywhere else are often rain or mixed in Long Beach. Let me say that when this sort of thing happens time and again to a weather enthusiast, it can unduly influence their judgements just a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The rain / snow line on like the 6z NAM looks 5 or 10 miles south of the 0z run...so this obsession with a "north" trend on the basis of one model suite seems to have been halted. It looks like the 850 gets to li sound for a time on the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 06Z RGEM has about 6 inches of snow for NYC by 12Z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The rain / snow line on like the 6z NAM looks 5 or 10 miles south of the 0z run...so this obsession with a "north" trend on the basis of one model suite seems to have been halted. To further illustrate this, the peak 850 mb temperature in NYC was +3.1°C on the 0z run and +1.3°C on the 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Nws just issued winter storm watches for the entire area!! For my aera witch is western Long island just south of the lie they say 5-10" of snow& sleet with a little ice from frz rain!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 6z gfs is north again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The computers should do a good deal better with this one as opposed to Monday's...on Monday, cyclogenesis had not really occurred until right at the onset of the snow...making it more difficult to pin down precip coverage and exact movement...here...you have a well developed mid latitude cyclone barreling eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 6z gfs is north again The low looks to exit around the same area to me...far southern nj/de area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The low looks to exit around the same area to me...far southern nj/de area Compare the 850 line from the 6z run to the 0z run, it moved north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Compare the 850 line from the 6z run to the 0z run, it moved north Yea I saw that. Something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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