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Post-Super Bowl Storm chance discussion


rossi

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To me, the writing's just about on the wall with this. Up by you=very solid event which makes up for the bust on Monday, NYC and Long Island, hopefully decent few inches, 4 or 5" to sleet/ZR/rain near the coast, south of there,  :yikes:

 

So you don't buy the Euro?

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0.75" - 1" qpf, except slightly greater than 1" qpf from NYC east, NJ coast. Surface and 850's south and east of most/all. Don't have access to soundings but this looks like a cold solution and all snow. 

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Confluence is like a brick wall. Any northerly movement is halted and the storm is forced east and has to redevelop offshore. The presence of blocking and a 50/50 can not be emphasized enough when it comes to snowfall around here otherwise this storm would cut to buffalo/upstate NY. 

 

The amount of confluence isn't ideal though with this storm so the heaviest snows are further north and mixing does become a factor but we could see this tick SE tomorrow. 

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