jm1220 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 You talk about hyperbole. I don't have the energy to save and upload the images from 12z and compare them to here at 0z...but saying there has been some quantum leap north is quite simply untrue...it has edged north...but well within the range one would expect within 2 runs of a model...so lets not make the adjustment into something it is not. It won't be a Burlington, VT storm but I can definitely see the heaviest snow totals riding along I-90 from Buffalo to Boston, maybe down just into PA and including much of CT and RI, and Orange/Putnam in NY, maybe the Poconos and Sussex, NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 25 on the north shore and 35 on the south shore. Is that true . What model? Seems extreme It was from the 18z GFS / hour 66 map posted by Bluewave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It won't be a Burlington, VT storm but I can definitely see the heaviest snow totals riding along I-90 from Buffalo to Boston, maybe down just into PA and including much of CT and RI, and Orange/Putnam in NY, maybe the Poconos and Sussex, NJ. Will with all due respect disagree. This goes over southern nj the farthest north nyc is marginal but nearby nyc burbs in jersey will do great. Morris warren far western Essex western union will do great. Gotta smell the rain to see the heaviest snow. Nyc will be the battleground imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Another unwritten rule of SWFE's is that when you see the SNE forum getting pumped over it, it's probably bad for NYC. I think one of their mets wrote once that "the snow comes sooner, but so does the sleet". The front end snow usually comes in fast, but since the warm air aloft is usually under-modeled, the mixing comes fast too. The 3-6" I said earlier looks like a good first guess. If it's a warning for anything it could be freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 A hypothesis for the northern trend in the guidance today could be related to the stronger than expected moisture feed from the Pacific... this is resulting in strong diabatic outflow contributing to downstream ridge growth, pushing heights higher downstream of our system (which just recently made landfall in British Columbia). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 A hypothesis for the northern trend in the guidance today could be related to the stronger than expected moisture feed from the Pacific... this is resulting in strong diabatic outflow (due to ridge growth) which is pushing heights higher downstream of our system (which just recently made landfall in British Columbia). Good point. The forecast down here has gotten increasingly gloomy and rainy over the last day or two. I guess I'll have to do my part and blow a hairdryer up at the sky or something. It might buy an extra 5 minutes of S+ somewhere. How far away does the butterfly flapping its wings have to be to have a noticeable impact? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 strong support for upside QPF numbers ATM my take away is for Higher End snow totals PAC and Gulf moisture transport keeps this system juicy-imo rain/snow line will come into focus with obs and nowcast mode Sunday afternoon over analysis of op runs will not change your totals I like where we stand at this point http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Hoping to have some good euro pbp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Noaas totals seem a bit conservative for parts of NNJ and LHV but it's better to up them if needed then have a debacle like Monday night lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Noaas totals seem a bit conservative for parts of NNJ and LHV but it's better to up them if needed then have a debacle like Monday night lol Storms like these don't often exceed 12-14". It's booking east fast and won't snow heavily over one place for too long. And maybe they're being cautious after Monday's debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 You guys think western Long island like a mile south of the lie will turn to pure rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Storms like these don't often exceed 12-14". It's booking east fast and won't snow heavily over one place for too long. And maybe they're being cautious after Monday's debacle. Feb 94. Amarillo to south of AC have put down a foot of snow before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Storms like these don't often exceed 12-14". It's booking east fast and won't snow heavily over one place for too long. And maybe they're being cautious after Monday's debacle.My qpf output for my area between the globals is anywhere from 1.09" to 1.5"+ my surface temps will be in the low teens.. No way if that verifies would it result in anything less than 12+", and I disagree..this kinda storm is the bread and butter of the LHV and NNJ AND NEPA, in terms of heavy snowfalls. we often see 12+ storms with this very setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Feb 94. Amarillo to south of AC have put down a foot of snow before. Like I said, 12-14". This isn't a slow moving storm but it's definitely going to snow hard when the storm hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 My qpf output for my area between the globals is anywhere from 1.09" to 1.5"+ my surface temps will be in the low teens.. No way if that verifies would it result in anything less than 12+", and I disagree..this kinda storm is the bread and butter of the LHV and NNJ AND NEPA, in terms of heavy snowfalls. we often see 12+ storms with this very setup The rise in qpf tonight on virtually all models is crazy. 1" plus now seems to be the norm for most of our subforum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 My qpf output for my area between the globals is anywhere from 1.09" to 1.5"+ my surface temps will be in the low teens.. No way if that verifies would it result in anything less than 12+", and I disagree..this kinda storm is the bread and butter of the LHV and NNJ AND NEPA, in terms of heavy snowfalls. we often see 12+ storms with this very setup The rise in qpf tonight on virtually all models is crazy. 1" plus now seems to be the norm for most of our subforum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 My qpf output for my area between the globals is anywhere from 1.09" to 1.5"+ my surface temps will be in the low teens.. No way if that verifies would it result in anything less than 12+", and I disagree..this kinda storm is the bread and butter of the LHV and NNJ AND NEPA, in terms of heavy snowfalls. we often see 12+ storms with this very setup I agree, up where you are should be fine. But if you ask some in the SNE forum, QPF in these kind of storms is overdone sometimes. Models may print 20" out in VT/NH, but 65-80% of that actually falls because the storm is moving fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Like I said, 12-14". This isn't a slow moving storm but it's definitely going to snow hard when the storm hits. oh ur saying 12 to 14 max ? I didn't see that. My cap was 12. The GFS is 25mm in NYC the GGEM was 33. I thought 8 to 12 w some sleet. We on the same page ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I agree, up where you are should be fine. Unfortunately anytime the city is the R/S battleground is when we up here see our best snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I agree, up where you are should be fine. But if you ask some in the SNE forum, QPF in these kind of storms is overdone sometimes. Models may print 20" out in VT/NH, but 65-80% of that actually falls because the storm is moving fast. You think it's moving that fast tho? I mean it's not creeping but it looks to be atleast an 18hr event give or take. Few hours, seems like a reasonable amount of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 oh ur saying 12 to 14 max ? I didn't see that. My cap was 12. The GFS is 25mm in NYC the GGEM was 33. I thought 8 to 12 w some sleet. We on the same page ? I'd go with 3-6 in the city and Long Island at this stage, 6-9" just north/west, like White Plains, Morristown and Bridgeport and 9-12"+ from I-84 and north. The 850mb low track will be key, and where the sleet line makes it. The same mechanism making all the heavy precip is also lurching the warm air up. Like I said before, I'll aim my hotel's hairdryer up at the sky and hope it makes some kind of difference up by you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 You guys think western Long island like a mile south of the lie will turn to pure rain? No.... I do'nt--- r1 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015013100/gfs-ens_T2m_eus_11.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Euro so far is coming in stronger and further north of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I would do euro PBP but wxbell models are so damn slow you will probably see 12 weenie maps by the time I get to 72 hours lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 You think it's moving that fast tho? I mean it's not creeping but it looks to be atleast an 18hr event give or take. Few hours, seems like a reasonable amount of time The really heavy stuff in these usually lasts 8 hours or so. The rest is usually snow showers behind the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Hr 48 low is over southern Ohio, def north of 12z much stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Ice should become a MAJOR concern. Surface temps aren't going anywhere with deep snowcover and fresh cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Hour 60 hvy snow from Philly N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Hr 48 low is over southern Ohio, def north of 12z much stronger To me, the writing's just about on the wall with this. Up by you=very solid event which makes up for the bust on Monday, NYC and Long Island, hopefully decent few inches, 4 or 5" to sleet/ZR/rain near the coast, south of there, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 993 low as it hits Atlantic over southern Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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