weatherfreeeeak Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This run hammers NYC with snow. Close call but still did it. Over 1.50 QPF for NYC. Jeez.All snow tho? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Thats 18z GFS on wed, more than 48hrs ago and 9 runs ago Yep...I thought today was the 29th but yesterday was...so it only gives my original point more validity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GGEM 12+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Yep...I thought today was the 29th but yesterday was...so it only gives my original point more validity. Alright lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 All snow tho? Close call with 850s near NYC but surface stays cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This run hammers NYC with snow. Close call but still did it. Over 1.50 QPF for NYC. Jeez. This run hammers NYC with snow. Close call but still did it. Over 1.50 QPF for NYC. Jeez. Ant, NYC is big....and SI is part of NYC. It could stay snow in the Bronx and mix in SI and Brooklyn, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GGEM is almost all snow at KNYC the 0 line gets stuck just S of the Driscoll bridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The UKMET still wants to send this to the north pole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GGEM 12+ Jeez that's 15" plus north jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GGEM 12+ Jeez that's 15" plus north jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The UKMET still wants to send this to the north pole I was just gonna say it was north but that was way funnier lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Ant, NYC is big....and SI is part of NYC. It could stay snow in the Bronx and mix in SI and Brooklyn, no? Possible. This storm is going to have a tight gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowblind Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 So central nj would be a mix like i said earlier. Based on this it would be 4-6 then cement time correct me if im wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GGEM is almost all snow at KNYC the 0 line gets stuck just S of the Driscoll bridge. GGEM is almost all snow at KNYC the 0 line gets stuck just S of the Driscoll bridge. Too close. You can see the Driscoll from Raritan Bay just off SI. I believe LCosgrove mentioned Perth Amboy as the line, just north of the bridge. My experience is that if it gets that far, it goes further and the city gets it too. Anecdotal I know, but anecdotal is still worth something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 All the models got the same data tonight...there's less uncertainty and ambiguity because the heavily unmonitored ocean does not play that much of a role...so a bunch of similar solutions with the rain / snow line near 40.5 N would not be unexpected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The UKMET still wants to send this to the north poleI'm guessing the Euro trends north then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GGEM 12+ Looks like albany ny is now in the snow game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 1/31 00z Summary. Sun (2/2) - on (2/3) Storm NYC : QPF (precip) SREF: 1.00+ (snow to mix/rain 3"- 5") NAM: 1.25+ (snow to mix - rain 3"-4") GFS: 1.25 - 1.50 (snow to mix 3"-6") GGEM: 1.50 (snow mix 8 - 12") UKMET: 1.25 - 1.50 (snow to rain 3" - 6") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm guessing the Euro trends north then. Ukie was way north at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm guessing the Euro trends north then. The Euro has not been following the UKMET at all with this event for whatever reason, they've been on almost opposite ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Ukie was way north at 12z. Can't seem to buy a storm in Central NJ that's all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Taken literally you can argue the Canadian would have a nasty back end CCB type feature here, probably not logical but thats sort of what it shows on the crappy graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Close call with 850s near NYC but surface stays cold. i think u are confusing 850 with 32 surface temp. 850s are off shore below li? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Ukie was way north at 12z. So tomorrow, this may be a burlington vt storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GEFS has the surface line below NYC throughtout the event. 850S look alright from NYC northward. Iffy below the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 So tomorrow, this may be a burlington vt storm Doubtful, Possible but doubtful, wouldn't consider the ukmet to be a leader... Highly unlikely the GFS euro GGEM and other cave to the ukmet... It's just too random of a solution comparative to the others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 GEFS has the surface line below NYC throughtout the event. 850S look alright from NYC northward. Iffy below the area.[/quote 850 is in Ocean Cty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This type of situation, the mid latitude cyclone will not cut north...or likely even trend any further north...if you can deem today's de minimis shift a "trend". I've elucidated as to why in several previous posts; but JM's exuberance about the so called "north trend" does need to be countered just a bit... Again, hopefully I'm wrong and this is the SWFE to counter the general trend WRT these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 So tomorrow, this may be a burlington vt storm You talk about hyperbole. I don't have the energy to save and upload the images from 12z and compare them to here at 0z...but saying there has been some quantum leap north is quite simply untrue...it has edged north...but well within the range one would expect within 2 runs of a model...so lets not make the adjustment into something it is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Possible. This storm is going to have a tight gradient. The mechanism to drive the heavy precip is the tight thermal gradient, so I agree that conditions might change over a short distance. Pay more attention to the 850mb low track than the surface low track-if the 850 low goes over or north of you, it won't stay snow, regardless of the surface cold air and low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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