snow1 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm willing to bet some of these models are under estimating the cold and will tick south RGEM going well further south might be a hint? Do we have proof it's south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I really hope nyc cashes in for once I'm happy to be out of Rahway our weather there mirrors nyc a lot now I'm up at 600 ft right on the border of morris county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The 00Z GFS soundings at LGA are all snow...verbatim...that setup would not verify as all snow in reality though, my guess is 11-13Z would probably go SNPL or PL as the 840-880mb layer us just below 0C and SW winds of 50 kts...generally models will understimate WAA by 1-2C there. Close call but I like the cold here. Where are you seeing strong SW winds? This is not a retreating high with major warm push type of setup. More of a Hybrid Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Do we have proof it's south? I thought the RGEM did tick slightly south in the 36-48 hour range, it appeared to me to be slightly less amped than the NAM at 48 which is somewhat rare as its usually more amped than the NAM at that range...it acts at 36-48 like the NAM does beyond 60-66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Close call but I like the cold here. Where are you seeing strong SW winds? This is not a retreating high with major warm push type of setup. More of a Hybrid Sent from my iPhone SW at 850, not the surface, if you see screaming WSW or SW flow in the 700-850 layer you usually need to add 1-2C, sometimes as much as 3C in very strong systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 You are fine Seen many storms here where we are ripping heavy snow while nyc is reporting taint or rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm willing to bet some of these models are under estimating the cold and will tick south RGEM going well further south might be a hint?I actually believe they are and will trend south at some point tomorrow. I really think the NYC area stays mostly snow and gets a good amount of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Didn't the rgem do well with the blizzard one where the heavy snow would set up?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Meteorologist Joe Cioffi Gfs keeps NYC all snow or at worst changes to mix for a few hours and then back to snow. It gives 4 to 6 inches by 7am. Lots of precip out of this . Plus once the cold air collapses it would change back in a hurry. This is not going to be easy. Gfs has precip all day Monday.7am Monday morning nyc is 28 Poughkeepsie is 15 Albany 5. Very cold air is ready to pounce back in. Going to be FASCINATING!I'm guessing winter storm watches go up in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Didn't the rgem do well with the blizzard one where the heavy snow would set up?? It was a bit too far east for Nassau and Suffolk county and also too slow but it was not horrible. It has not been nearly as good this winter as it was last year. Most notably it has had a warm bias on every event it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Didn't the rgem do well with the blizzard one where the heavy snow would set up?? It was onboard for heavier accumulations into western NJ, but for the few runs prior to the event, I believe it did so pretty well, showing the 6"+ amounts mainly for NYC east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Thank you for that. Now, a little social history. in my 52 years in the NYC metro, I have seen only a handful of serious ice events. We mostly rain, sleet or snow. Typically, we start as snow, go to sleet, then rain. Sometimes, a storm comes in warm and begins as rain. Temps crash and we go to snow. I have read that southern states are more prone to ZR storms. Mods feel free to delete if this is banter. This is a unique event though... the surface ridge to the north is quite cold and has a good snow pack to work with. As soon as the surface cyclone moves offshore the surface winds quickly flip out of the northeast and this extremely cold air from further north quickly sags southward. However the 850 and 700hPa low are displaced north and west, and still allow for WAA in those layers (leaving a relatively large layer of the atmosphere above freezing in the 00z NAM) This is a sleet/freezing rain profile from the 00z NAM Monday morning for NYC. If there is still significant precipitation at this time, this is a pretty worrisome sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This type of situation, the mid latitude cyclone will not cut north...or likely even trend any further north...if you can deem today's de minimis shift a "trend". I've elucidated as to why in several previous posts; but JM's exuberance about the so called "north trend" does need to be countered just a bit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I really hope nyc cashes in for once I'm happy to be out of Rahway our weather there mirrors nyc a lot now I'm up at 600 ft right on the border of morris county I really hope nyc cashes in for once I'm happy to be out of Rahway our weather there mirrors nyc a lot now I'm up at 600 ft right on the border of morris county Rahway had 32 inches Boxing Day....I'm in Colonia next dorr. Rahway is Upton. Colonia is Mt Holly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Joe Cioffi thinks ratios may be 12 to 1 and then perhaps 15 to 1 on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I wouldn't be surprised if NYC gets 6" before any mixing as of now...It would be sleet and freezing drizzle if it changes over... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This type of situation, the mid latitude cyclone will not cut north...or likely even trend any further north...if you can deem today's de minimis shift a "trend". I've elucidated as to why in several previous pots; but JM's exuberance about the so called "north trend" does need to be countered just a bit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I wouldn't be surprised if NYC gets 6" before any mixing as of now...It would be sleet and freezing drizzle if it changes over...And even it did mix it's likely very brief with a change quickly back to snow and higher ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Yeah but that's the GFS from 4 runs ago (30 hours) and its all over the place...I'm sort of keying in on the average track the models have ferreted out today.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Rahway had 32 inches Boxing Day....I'm in Colonia next dorr. Rahway is Upton. Colonia is Mt Holly... Yeah I'm in west orange at the top of the hill now at 560 feet much better than rahway at 90 feet basically 20 miles due north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Yeah but that's the GFS from 4 runs ago (30 hours) and its all over the place...I'm sort of keying in on the average track the models have ferreted out today.. Thats 18z GFS on wed, more than 48hrs ago and 9 runs ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Joe Cioffi thinks ratios may be 12 to 1 and then perhaps 15 to 1 on Monday. Its a cold air mass at every level until the punch at 850 at hour 60 for 3 hours. KNYC could get 8 inches of snow on the front. Sleet for 3 hours then accumulate on the back. The warmest KNYC gets is 29. Keep in mind 20 to 30 miles south at 850 is all that is needed to keep everyone from Monmouth county N all snow . We have 2 days to pull that off. We just saw a SLP jump east 75 miles in 3 hours on Monday and wreck a lot of people west of the Hudson. With blocking and confluence the shift back south is not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Thats 18z GFS on wed, more than 30hrs ago Yes, that is what I wrote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Yes, that is what I wrote. U said that it was the GFS from 4 runs ago.. It was not.. It was 9 runs ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This is a unique event though... the surface ridge to the north is quite cold and has a good snow pack to work with. As soon as the surface cyclone moves offshore the surface winds quickly flip out of the northeast and this extremely cold air from further north quickly sags southward. However the 850 and 700hPa low are displaced north and west, and still allow for WAA in those layers (leaving a relatively large layer of the atmosphere above freezing in the 00z NAM) This is a sleet/freezing rain profile from the 00z NAM Monday morning for NYC. If there is still significant precipitation at this time, this is a pretty worrisome sounding. Well, that would be very serious then. The one big one here was Jan 94, and it was terrible. couldn't chop out the ice off the driveway for a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 1/31 00z Summary. Sun (2/2) - on (2/3) Storm NYC : QPF (precip) SREF: 1.00+ (snow to mix/rain 3"- 5") NAM: 1.25+ (snow to mix - rain 3"-4") GFS: 1.25 - 1.50 (snow to mix 3"-6") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GGEM?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GGEM is slightly more north and slightly warmer. Looks like snow to mix to snow for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GGEM is slightly more north and slightly warmer. Looks like snow to mix to snow for NYC. Rarely do we ever see in nyc snow to mix back to snow we usually see snow to mix then rain then the precip shuts off. Hope the models are underestimating the high to the north and the cad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Rarely do we ever see in nyc snow to mix back to snow we usually see snow to mix then rain then the precip shuts off. Hope the models are underestimating the high to the north and the cad This run hammers NYC with snow. Close call but still did it. Over 1.50 QPF for NYC. Jeez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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