USCG RS Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I look at the ECMWF, GFS, NAM, GGEM, RGEM, GEM-LAM (great is short range for snow precision)...I don't really look at the UKMET much, I do look at the ARW & NNM (which nailed Monday's cutoff)....the HRRR & RAP in the short range)...and I once lived & died with the SUNY MM5...the best rain / snow line model ever...but it seems to have been discontinued. You can end up looking at too many...as was the case on Monday...the ensembles (mainly GFS) I check occasionaly...but it can get to be too much.Oh Prof Colle at SUNY SB loved that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 So far the nam appears further north than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 So far the nam appears further north than 18z Trend is to be further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 So far the nam appears further north than 18z initally it does than it appears to exit off the coast further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 So far the nam appears further north than 18z it looks slightly further north but temps seem about the same.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 it ends up leaving the coast further south but still with the same outcome as 18z...anyone from the city south and out onto long island flips to rain for some time...dont buy it but whatever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This has all of a sudden become a terrible setup for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 it ends up leaving the coast further south but still with the same outcome as 18z...anyone from the city south and out onto long island flips to rain for some time...dont buy it but whatever Rain? No way. Frozen maybe Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The trend is as clear as day: north. looks to exit off the delmarva as opposed to just south of long island at 18z...just stop with this crap pls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 NAM is definitely north with the mixing as most of NJ/NYC/LI mixes bigtime. You know it's a further north run when you see the most recent post is in the northwestern suburbs thread rather than this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Rain? No way. Frozen maybe Sent from my iPhone yea its close...its defenitly taint though...ppl need to stop with these crap its north post...if anything it ends up further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 First off , for all you NAM wishers it would be a crippling ice storm even into KNYC after about 6 inches of snow. However it may be missing the confluence at hour 48. So everything after that could just be noise. Wait until you see the rest of the guidance and where the SLP is in the Ohio valley , then you see where the center and mid level push should end up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 looks to exit off the delmarva as opposed to just south of long island at 18z...just stop with this crap pls I think you are talking about two different things, he is talking about the 850 line... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I think you are talking about two different things, he is talking about the 850 line... oh gotcha...yea that is further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I think you are talking about two different things, he is talking about the 850 line... Bingo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I think you are talking about two different things, he is talking about the 850 line... the difference in this run of the NAM vs the 18z is when it gets to just east of pittsburgh it hits a wall and is forced south east and then exits through southern NJ - anyone north of the raritan river in NJ is all frozen on this run the entire event with a mixing of sleet or a very brief change to sleet then back to snow as the low pushes off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I like the low placement with the nam as it collaborates with other models, however I absolutly DO NOT buy into NYC changing over, those levels will crash as the storm deepens and what may be slight turn over will go back to snow... Just my feeling based on similar set ups in the past, especially with a low hitting the Atlantic at Delmarva This. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 If the nam verifies than this is nothing but a nuisance for TTN south. Big if though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Surface was cold on the nam. Bad icestorm if verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The nam gave us 40 inches of snow 6 hours before the blizzard, the nam gave most of us 0 with the clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Still all snow north of Toms river PB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I think a run like this would be a big snowmaker for areas even around NYC. A few inches of heavy snow to a mix back to heavy snow and 3-4 more inches with crashing temps.....where it does mix maybe 5-8", where it doesn't 8-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 1/31 00z Summary. Sun (2/2) - on (2/3) Storm NYC : QPF (precip) SREF: 1.00+ (snow to mix/rain 3"- 5") NAM: 1.25+ (snow to mix - rain 3"-4") GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beez Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 the difference in this run of the NAM vs the 18z is when it gets to just east of pittsburgh it hits a wall and is forced south east and then exits through southern NJ - anyone north of the raritan river in NJ is all frozen on this run the entire event with a mixing of sleet or a very brief change to sleet then back to snow as the low pushes off the coast the 850 low tracks north of central nj. anyone south of the 850 low is going to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 regarding NJ there are a few natural boundaries where snow/rain lines like to set up - the raritan river being one and freehold being the other and the toms river being another also and of course in north jersey route 78 and route 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beez Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Still all snow north of Toms river PB? nope. maybe an inch of snow with a quick change to rain taking the nam literally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The surface will be very tricky because there's a lot of CAD in place due to very cold air in the low levels just north of the low. The low itself it having a very hard time climbing any further north because of the setup in place so there is a limit to how far north it gets. I'd rather see what the other models show as both the SREF and Nam are out of their range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The NAM 7am surface temp is -0.6 and 1.6 at 850MB winds are 09/10. So it would be a frozen mix at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Still all snow north of Toms river PB? He's a little bullish but don't forget, this is toddler fingerpaint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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