UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 At least not until Sunday! Nah dude, I'm gonna trust the short terms and watch the radar... It was wayyyy to stressful watchin mid storm model runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Nah dude, I'm gonna trust the short terms and watch the radar... It was wayyyy to stressful watchin mid storm model runs I say the same thing now but I know, at lease for me, that won't happen. No way would I be able to ignore the mid-storm models of a possible impending snowstorm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I say the same thing now but I know, at lease for me, that won't happen. No way would I be able to ignore the mid-storm models of a possible impending snowstorm lol I guess I shoulda been more specific. I'll def look at high res, and short terms to see were banding may set in but prob not nam GFS or euro lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Jersey looks to be in good shape especially central jersey south on that 18z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 This threat is legit. If fridays clipper can merge with the PV and punch in an NAO block like the GFS, we are looking at a MECS. Arctic air, southern stream. It's game on. Very bullish on this storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 This threat is legit. If fridays clipper can merge with the PV and punch in an NAO block like the GFS, we are looking at a MECS. Arctic air, southern stream. It's game on. Very bullish on this storm.. We're have I heard that before hahah jk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 We're have I heard that before hahah jk Honestly I have a gut feeling we have not seen our biggest storm of the year. That being said, I'm just shot and have no desire to dissect a model right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 We're have I heard that before hahah jk FYI, i completetly blocked yesterday out of my mind. Not even thinking about it, and already tracking the next threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Honestly I have a gut feeling we have not seen our biggest storm of the year. That being said, I'm just shot and have no desire to dissect a model right now. I feel the exact same.. To be honest I'll be watching runs just to make sure it's still there lol.. Until Friday atleast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 FYI, i completetly blocked yesterday out of my mind. Not even thinking about it, and already tracking the next threat. ur a better man than me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I feel the exact same.. To be honest I'll be watching runs just to make sure it's still there lol.. Until Friday atleastHa. I'm not even looking at models, until, well until tomorrow. I digress I am a glutten for punishment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Ha. I'm not even looking at models, until, well until tomorrow. I digress I am a glutten for punishment. My life was like that State Farm commercial with the guy on the phone late at night with jake... My wife would wake up at 3am and here I am curled in a corner blogging and watching models lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 My life was like that State Farm commercial with the guy on the phone late at night with jake... My wife would wake up at 3am and here I am curled in a corner blogging and watching models lmaoLOL! That is EXACTLY the same situation with me hahaha. She would wake up and look over seeing the light from the phone or computer....pretending I'm kind of taking care of something but really waiting for the Euro Ensembles. Crazy crazy stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 LOL! That is EXACTLY the same situation with me hahaha. She would wake up and look over.....pretending I'm kind of taking care of something but really waiting for the Euro Ensembles. Crazy crazy stuff The only thing that kept me standing each day after 1 hr of sleep was the excitement....Im dead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The only thing that kept me standing each day after 1 hr of sleep was the excitement....Im deadIt's amazing what we're willing to endure. We're junkies ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 It's amazing what we're willing to endure. We're junkies ha. I don't think I'll be "staying up" for the king on this next storm hahah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Computer Guy Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 It's amazing what we're willing to endure. We're junkies ha. at least we're gambling with model runs and snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I'm waiting for this 00z GFS, then it's bed time... I'm hoping it comes North a bit to be honest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The only thing that kept me standing each day after 1 hr of sleep was the excitement....Im dead The ironic part is that I didn't sleep more than an hour or so Saturday and Sunday night.....and the only night that I DID get a bit of sleep was last night as the actual storm was happening lol. After realizing that the RAP and HRRR were not moving west at all with the band of snow in Long Island, the adrenaline burst that I seemed to have despite the lack of sleep just diminished and I gave up with this storm altogether. I had been telling my wife all along that I wasn't buying into the 20 or 30 inch forecasts, and that we'd probably get 12" if that.....but obviously I was holding out hope that there was something that I was just overlooking and that all of the other models were missing something.....so it was a bit difficult to not get a little more excited over it. All done now and on to the next storm, though I really, really will not trust what any model shows outside of 72 hours or less unless it has strong support from other models ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The ironic part is that I didn't sleep more than an hour or so Saturday and Sunday night.....and the only night that I DID get a bit of sleep was last night as the actual storm was happening lol. After realizing that the RAP and HRRR were not moving west at all with the band of snow in Long Island, the adrenaline burst that I seemed to have despite the lack of sleep just diminished and I gave up with this storm altogether. I had been telling my wife all along that I wasn't buying into the 20 or 30 inch forecasts, and that we'd probably get 12" if that.....but obviously I was holding out hope that there was something that I was just overlooking and that all of the other models were missing something.....so it was a bit difficult to not get a little more excited over it. All done now and on to the next storm, though I really, really will not trust what any model shows outside of 72 hours or less unless it has strong support from other models ! I couldn't shake the pure and utter disappointment coupled with hours of denial Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 From sound of your comment. Did they upgrade the softwear. Correct me if im wrong? I read they were impressed with the superior resolution. Now, keep in mind I have no idea what that actually means... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I'm learning stuff here as a hobby. Your in the same boat as me or Lil more advanced. Hehe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 This threat is legit. If fridays clipper can merge with the PV and punch in an NAO block like the GFS, we are looking at a MECS. Arctic air, southern stream. It's game on. Very bullish on this storm.. Fridays event may surprise too, it won't seem like much to many now that they've had a significant snow but I would not be surprised if someone got 2-3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I'm learning stuff here as a hobby. Your in the same boat as me or Lil more advanced. HeheResolution has to do with the grid spacing. For example, the hi res nam is 4km. This means that the dynamics are measured in 4km increments. The regular Nam, however, is a 12km resolution. This comes into play with dynamics and how they affect the outcome of storms. For example, if a system is being influenced by something smaller than 12km in terms of length or width, theoretically the NAM would miss it, where as the hi res NAM would theoretically be able to see it. The flip side of this higher resolution is that it allows for more error and also needs a much more powerful computer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Thank you for the explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Thank you for the explanation.Glad to be able to help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The clipper mostly stays to our North of the 00z GFS. Just light precip here. Meanwhile the Eastern lakes region and then towards Upstate NY and Western New England get it pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 My GFS is only out to hr 12 taking forever to load lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 It actually closes off at H5 right over us but the moisture stays to our north and west for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Uh oh, some major changes occurring on the GFS now on Saturday. The energy dropping through Montana is so much stronger and further SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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