danstorm Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Thermal gradient city! Two words for this storm - Isentropic Lift. No yanksfan, this isn't referring to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It almost dove right to the Gulf of Mexico this run, but yes people will once again toss it because it doesn't have the most snow. Lol ur just being bitter from the last storm dude come on!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Thermal gradient city! Two words for this storm - Isentropic Lift. No yanksfan, this isn't referring to you. Yes somewhere here is going to get smoked from this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Thermal gradient city! Two words for this storm - Isentropic Lift. No yanksfan, this isn't referring to you. yeah look at the temps in N CT versus S NJ under 10 to 42 over 200 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 We will still get a good front end dump...but the north trend in concerning What is the amount of the dump from Monmouth to nyc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It almost dove right to the Gulf of Mexico this run, but yes people will once again toss it because it doesn't have the most snow. Of course they will. The trends are quite clear but a good front end dump seems very likely despite what happen after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Ice, baby, ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Dude, seriously? Theyve all been trending more north and more amped for a while now. You gotta learn to ignore him - eternal optimist even when there is nothing to be optimistic about ... the storm could show 1-3 on every model and hed still say there is a chance for 6-10... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It almost dove right to the Gulf of Mexico this run, but yes people will once again toss it because it doesn't have the most snow. you got it --- it's insane.. if NAM/GFS showed what everyone wanted, not one person would discount them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 if these little north bumps don't stop we're a few model runs away from getting mostly raingetting close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 You gotta learn to ignore him... the storm could show 1-3 on every model and hed still say there is a chance for 6-10... Buz off. Its only one run. The euro and euro ensembles were great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 getting close Mostly rain is going to be difficult with this setup ... but you can't deny the north bumpies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Also there should be enough confluence up north to keep us all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Buz off. Its only one run. The euro and euro ensembles were great. Actually a large percentage of the individuals showed the mixing line into NYC but we won't talk about that. I don't usually consider low res ensemble members for temperature profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The 18z run of the GFS has more precipitation to the north than the 12z run. Some quick numbers: ALB: 0.57" vs. 0.34" at 12z HPN: 0.76" vs. 0.66" at 12z MMU: 0.87" vs. 0.76" at 12z NYC: 0.80" vs 0.67" at 12z POU: 0.63" vs. 0.36" at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 Also there should be enough confluence up north to keep us all snow.[/quot GEFS will probably keep us all snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Most areas are probably good for 4-8" on the front end before any mixing occurs and right now I think that's a good call, especially for the coast. That was what I spread around the office today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'm concerned about icing issues given some very cold low level air that will not give up easily. Could end up being a snow to ice event for many on here. Give this is under 3 days you're unlikely to see any major adjustments from this point on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 getting close mostly rain in NYC? Would doubt that unless it went another 100 miles north-you'd have to get the Low pressure to almost run the I80 corridor. I'd think a flip to ZR or IP is more of a concern that plain rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The 18z off run trends, let's not realize how the model suites dramatically shifted less than 24 hours before the blizzard bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Yeah this isn't going to end up mostly rain, unless maybe you live in Ocean County or points south. But sleet or freezing rain could definitly be a possibility before the coastal takes over and flips winds from the South to the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The 18z RGEM out of range continues to look amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Yeah this isn't going to end up mostly rain, unless maybe you live in Ocean County or points south. But sleet or freezing rain could definitly be a possibility before the coastal takes over and flips winds from the South to the Northeast. I don't see south winds here, not at the surface. That WOULD flip us over the rain. The warming is aloft, where winds will have a southerly component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 i've never seen a SWFE come back south inside 84 hours after the models started bringing mixing into the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Verbatim on NAM/GFS...mixing in the city shouldn't last that long...a few hours most before it flips back to snow. Snow - Sleet - Snow and prob 4" on the low side and 10" on the high Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 i've never seen a SWFE come back south inside 84 hours after the models started bringing mixing into the area Totally agree, there are few more bumps north in the cards, I've given up here in Philly except for maybe a period of heavy snow on the onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I don't see south winds here, not at the surface. That WOULD flip us over the rain. The warming is aloft, where winds will have a southerly component. I was referring to 850mb winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Also there should be enough confluence up north to keep us all snow. I thought that as well, but every run all snow is looking less likely. Doesn't mean we don't get dumped on first, just looks like at some point we will taint which is heartbreaking considering the coldest air of the season is literally right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 This could be the furthest north it goes. There some pro mets saying it may start to trend slowy south by tomorrow. We shall see. Do the models take the snow cover to account? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Lol at people thinking this was mainly a D.C. and south storm yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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