wxman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 This. Just because the nam is posted doesn't mean we believe it. We post the jma too, but nobody really takes that seriously. I take the JMA more seriously than the NAM. More coups in the medium range, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 This thing has a good shot if it delivers of getting up pretty high on the NESIS scale with it's sprawling journey across a good chunk of the US and into the I-95 corridor. NESIS stands for Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale, so whatever happens in the Midwest doesn't matter. This won't be a very high NESIS storm anyways as the snowfall amounts won't be terribly high. Still a big event though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triniiphone Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 NWS Boston "MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST.AND HERE WE GO AGAIN WITH A STORM. GOING DOWN ALL THE GUIDANCE EVERKNOWN. LIKE A DRIFTER I AM LOST ABOUT THIS STORM. SO I`VE MADE UP MYMIND. I`M ENSEMBLE BLENDING THIS TIME. SO HERE WE GO AG" LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The 18z GFS is quicker with the shortwave diving south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 That shortwave is really amped up so far, early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 the thing with this kind of setup is that even if it warms up the front end thump ends up being impressive and a lot of times it turns to drizzle at the ends, it can keep accumulations down a little, but it usually ends up being a nice event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The GFS is really amped up. Snow almost to the Canadian border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Surface low is to St. Louis hr 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Confluence and 50/50 really helping us out here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Almost laughable how more amped up this run is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Light snow before kick off on the gfs now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Real light spotty activity before sunset, the real stuff doesn't move in until the game is near over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Confluence should save a lot of us, its like drivi nf a go kart through a brick wall, not easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 This is gonan look pretty good for NNJ I would believe. I live south of NYC by like 3 miles but like 15 miles west. Will the west help? (around NEWARK). Idk if I consider me NNJ or CNJ or NENJ (border of essex/union county) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Looks too amped. Mixing line to Ttn at 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 This is gonan look pretty good for NNJ I would believe. I live south of NYC by like 3 miles but like 15 miles west. Will the west help? (around NEWARK). Idk if I consider me NNJ or CNJ or NENJ (border of essex/union county) Definitely NOT Central Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Nyc has mixing issues on this run...nw does well and sne...not a good trend here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Looks too amped. Mixing line to Ttn at 06z Another world famous GFS 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Low goes over cape may... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Surface low to southwest PA. Secondary near Cape May. Still a great run for the area but picking up on the NAM's and GGEM's idea of a miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 There is going to be some 2-3"/hr. rates just north of the mix line (as depicted) on the 9/12z progs of the GFS in C/N NJ. Intense storm as it is trying to force warm/moist into bitter cold air in a compressed geography. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The difference in the mixing line between the GFS/NAM/GGEM are about 10 miles. Unfortunatly for southern sections you're right on the battleground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Nyc has mixing issues on this run...nw does well and sne...not a good trend here What trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The heavier precip ends up right over the mixing area which doesn't make sense, should have been just to the North of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 What trend More amped up northern stream the last few runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Really does have a great look to it. Banana high is almost textbook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 What trend Dude, seriously? Theyve all been trending more north and more amped for a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GFS is 4-6" for most of the area before mixing issues happen down South and less QPF for NW areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 More amped up northern stream the last few runs... It almost dove right to the Gulf of Mexico this run, but yes people will once again toss it because it doesn't have the most snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It almost dove right to the Gulf of Mexico this run, but yes people will once again toss it because it doesn't have the most snow. We will still get a good front end dump...but the north trend in concerning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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