David-LI Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The matter of the fact is, the NAM shouldn't be trusted at ANY range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 BOX going to issue watches shortly for their forecast area per their latest AFD Upton should do the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 NAM is furthest north with the initial low track in the Ohio Valley. It's not even close. GFS and GGEM which did best with the last storm are quite a bit south with that initial low, significantly if I don't say so and they don't show indications of trying to drive it up northeast initially like the NAM does. GGEM and GFS are practically over North/Central Kentucky/WV. That's some model consensus if that's what someone is looking for. NAVGEM is pretty much there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 What does it resemble? UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Very reasonable map for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Some of you really have no idea what you're talking about, and if I was able to post paid Euro maps I might be able to show you how similar the NAM and Euro look at H5. The GGEM also runs the surface low into SW PA before transfering to the coast. The only difference is that the GGEM is much further south with the transfer. If I continue to get bashed for simply posting what a model shows that will be the end of the play by play. The NAM is a huge hit for the interior. It is what it is. Doesn't make it right but that's what it shows. don't always agree with you but you are correct - slightly warmer than the Euro, yes, but similar at H5 - I have the pro maps too... also similar to the UKIE I too an not defending the NAM at all but I said clearly it can not be completely discounted - the bickering though by those who dont want us to even discuss it, is insane.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Very reasonable map for the time being. 100% agree, very reasonable at the moment.. can be scaled back or upped if needed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowblind Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 So central nj is looking like a mix or rain, is that right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Almost everyone agrees that the NAM is not a good model this far out. If you disagree ,show me when it is has been a good model at this far out . Who has not been screwed by the NAM ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Upton agrees on the brief mixing into Southern portions of this area. Any mixing that occured would probably be short lived. It's not going to kill you if you flip to sleet for a few hours, the initial thump will be very impressive everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Even being a bit inland where I am, I'm still nervous about the NAM's solution. Taint all the way up to the Lehigh Valley in PA? Thankfully it's the NAM in the (relatively) long range so I'm hoping this run proves to be a northern outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 So central nj is looking like a mix or rain, is that right?WrongThe line is at Tom's River Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 100% agree, very reasonable at the moment.. can be scaled back or upped if needed Assuming more to the North is due to ratios and not b/c of mixing in NYC. The only model showing mixing is the NAM. Either way, this kind of covers them for why amounts are higher to the North Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 UKIEUkie gives nyc alot of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 WSW are flyig everywhere.Upton should issue them soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Given all the guidance so far, including the NAM which has generated a lot of debate, I think it's reasonable to suggest that a large part of the region has the potential to receive a 6" or greater snowfall Sunday night and Monday. Details remain uncertain and when those details become clearer, one can refine amounts, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesny Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 OT, but Upton has a low of 1 in Whitestone, Queens. Think this is definitely doable w/ snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The Euro at 18z Monday might actually be less amped up than the NAM valid the same period. People just assume that the NAM is wrong because it's the NAM but I for one can remember a handful of events where it did quite well, and most of them were similar setups. Can you rattle off a few so we can compare the setups? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Its been forever since NYC has seen a snow event that went to sleet for a lengthy period or any period yet the event stayed frozen, this was a common problem in most winters, even 95-96 saw a lot of it, so we have been spoiled a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Lol at those defending the NAM. I can't believe you are taking the solution of the 54 hour 18z NAM seriously. For the last storm it showed over 24" of snow for CNJ. We ended up with 2-4". That was off by 20" under 12 hours out. It is obviously over amped and to far NW as that is it's horrible bias. If it's showing the same thing less that 12 hours out than maybe you can consider it, but even then then it's garbage. It's most accurate window is within 6 hours, which at that point it's more accurate to check the RAP or HRRR. The only decent NAM run with the Blizzard was the Tues 0z that confirmed that the GFS would win out over the Euro. But many times even the 6 hr can be off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Can you rattle off a few so we can compare the setups? Right off the bat Feb 6 2010 comes to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 WSW's up all the way down to the Mason/Dixon line.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Right off the bat Feb 6 2010 comes to mind. It hits events every once in awhile but its almost impossible to know which ones it will get correct, there really is no set type of storm it does better on than others. I would go heavy euro on this event, its a much simpler setup and most models are in close agreement which likely means the best model is going to be most accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 So central nj is looking like a mix or rain, is that right? FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THIS DRIVES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY MORNING. THE DIGGING SHORT WAVE IN THE OHIO VALLEY MAY BE SUCH TO ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK A BIT FARTHER NORTHWARD, AND THIS TRACK WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIER AXIS OF PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION TYPES. DESPITE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW, THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF A STORM AFFECTING OUR AREA. AN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL, POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT, IS ANTICIPATED FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF OUR CWA. WHERE THIS OCCURS ALONG WITH A MIXED PRECIPITATION/RAIN ZONES IS LESS CERTAIN ATTM, ALTHOUGH THE TREND IS POINTING TO OUR NORTHERN ZONES HAVING THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD RAPIDLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FROM WEST TO EAST NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK WHERE A TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT DEVELOPS. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND WAA SHOULD RESULT IN SOME WEST-EAST BANDS OF SOME HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. THE FARTHER NORTH ONE GOES, THE BETTER CHC OF ALL SNOW. THE PICTURE BECOMES LESS CERTAIN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA AS THE INJECTION OF WARMER AIR FOR A TIME SHOULD RESULT IN A ZONE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH EVEN AN AREA OF RAIN. WHERE THIS OCCURS CARRIES LOWER CONFIDENCE ATTM AS THE DIFFERENCE IN SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE DOOR OPEN FOR A SOME NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT. THE NAM/SREF IS MORE AMPLIFIED, HOWEVER THERE IS MORE SUPPORT FROM THE WELL CLUSTERED GFS AND ECMWF WITH EVEN STRONGER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS. DESPITE THE LOWER CONFIDENCE, BASED ON THE GFS/ECMWF WE ADDED MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION FROM AROUND THE PHILADELPHIA METRO SOUTHWARD WITH EVEN SOME RAIN ACROSS THE DELMARVA. WE DID NOT GO AS FAR NORTH THOUGH WITH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION LIKE THE NAM WOULD SUGGEST. ANY RAIN AND MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR WRAPS INTO THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. SINCE WE ARE NOT REAL CONFIDENT ON WHERE THE MIXED PRECIPITATION ZONE MAY OCCUR, WE ELECTED TO HOLD OFF ON A WINTER STORM WATCH ATTM. OUR STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL MAP /THROUGH 7 PM MONDAY/ LEANED TOWARD THE WPC/WWD GUIDANCE AFTER EARLIER COLLABORATION, AND IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS MAP IS HIGHLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 WSW are flyig everywhere.Upton should issue them soon. Maybe hold until tonight if necessary. Is all of the engery onshore and sampled yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Its been forever since NYC has seen a snow event that went to sleet for a lengthy period or any period yet the event stayed frozen, this was a common problem in most winters, even 95-96 saw a lot of it, so we have been spoiled a bit. It seems to me the whole whether pattern has changed. The traditional rain-snow lines have become blurred to say the least, and it's no longer a rarity to have Monmouth cty get more snow the Sussex in a given storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Right off the bat Feb 6 2010 comes to mind. Interesting possibility. Killer confluence on that one though with a really strong High to the N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Guys, guys. It's Friday. Have a drink. This is the NAM we are talking about here. We are all going to get a good winter storm, enjoy how it plays out. The MUCH bigger story from a historical perspective is, after the storm on Tues morning, will NYC get below 0? 21 years and running so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I was in Philly for 2/6/2010, and I will take some of that up here thank you very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 This thing has a good shot if it delivers of getting up pretty high on the NESIS scale with it's sprawling journey across a good chunk of the US and into the I-95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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