PB GFI Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I don't think we should disregard anything at this point. We do so at our snowpack's peril. Yes you should. Have to stop with this model. It looks like no other guidance. It does not fit the pattern. It's wrong. It's amped. You have confluence and a neg nao. This is not hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 NAM is a foot plus north and west of the city, probably anyone that lives west of the GSP and Northwest of the Thuruway @ hr 66 Temps in the teens w/ heavy snow falling.. Verbatim that would yield some impressive totals for the NW crew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Look at that temp gradient, 8-10 degrees in N CT and low 40's S NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The GGEM/ECMWF/NAM/GFS are all in agreement of a Frozen QPF Jackpot right over NNJ and spreading northeast towards Westchester and SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 For us newbies, anyone have current snowfall tot map pls? No, I'd rather not post the WxBell weenie maps since they are only run on a flat 10:1 ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 but when the nam shows an identical track as the GGEM, euro, and GFS... You take notice..eslecially since the nam has amped up like the GGEM and euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 1.00-1.50" QPF Sharp cut off in snow accumultions right over the city. Could be 6" in the Bronx and nothing in Coney Island. the 3 hr increments im looking at certainly looked like more than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 1.00-1.50" QPF Sharp cut off in snow accumultions right over the city. Could be 6" in the Bronx and nothing in Coney Island. love these sharp cutoffs NAM cant be completely ignored - has some UKIE support.. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 And the NAM bashing continues because it doesn't show the most snow for the coast. It's just a slightly warmer version of both the GFS and the GGEM. No, we bash the NAM because it is a joke of a model. When it showed 36" for me last Monday, I tossed. Toddler fingerpaint. Onto the real models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 If I had a dollar every time the NAM kept me interested in a storm that eventually ended up offshore, I would be a rich man. It almost always is the most amped/furthest north and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 And the NAM bashing continues because it doesn't show the most snow for the coast. It's just a slightly warmer version of both the GFS and the GGEM. Probably because it's continuously wrong on pretty much every storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 This will be a widespread snowstorm from 195 N . NYC and LI included. Hoping your right PBI - think NNJ is getting close to a lock, still worried about NYC metro.. would like to see NAM/UKIE shift back South when it gets closer to "gametime" no pun intended... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Boom... 18z NAM @ 66 Thing of beauty.. For you, not for the rest of this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Yes you should. Have to stop with this model. It looks like no other guidance. It does not fit the pattern. It's wrong. It's amped. You have confluence and a neg nao. This is not hard. Well, you may be right. Or this thing may continue its jog north. After last week I refuse to discount anything until the storm is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Probably because it's continuously wrong on pretty much every storm? So let's toss the other models too since they show an identical track just slightly colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The GGEM did almost the same thing. The only difference was that the secondary popped further North so it screwed the mid-levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Wow 2 for my low on tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 now even mets are bashing the model...ur desperation for a snow event is bleeding bright colors rn I'm not desperate for anything. I'm not saying that the NAM is correct, but when it resembles other guidance it should at least be considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 For you, not for the rest of this forum. Actually it was boom for about 60% of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Hoping your right PBI - think NNJ is getting close to a lock, still worried about NYC metro.. would like to see NAM/UKIE shift back South when it gets closer to "gametime" no pun intended...GFS, GGEM ans EURO show 8+ for the city and the GFS and Euro didn't really become warmer than their previous runs so I'm not so worried right now but there's definitely a chance we taint a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 If a foot is predicted and 6 inches is on the ground Monday morning with more to come, they'd announce it Monday at 5AM that schools are closed I do not think the MTA will close again. With a snowstorm, the underground portion of the transit system should not be closed. The costs of doing so vastly outweigh any actual or perceived benefits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 So let's toss the other models too since they show an identical track just slightly colder They aren't identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'm not desperate for anything. I'm not saying that the NAM is correct, but when it resembles other guidance it should at least be considered. What does it resemble? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 No, we bash the NAM because it is a joke of a model. When it showed 36" for me last Monday, I tossed. Toddler fingerpaint. Onto the real models. This. If there was a blend at 12z that flipped KNYC mid way I would say ok . It could be right. But when you look at the body of guidance at 12z it's an outlier. The other models see the confluence. They see the bridge over the top. If every model showed rain at 12z and only the NAM painted a snow bomb at KNYC and people bought it they would get crucified It's not the solution it s the lack of support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beez Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 surprised mount holly went with all snow for eastern monmouth in there updated zone forecast. seems like even the colder models are at least showing some degree of mixing for the shore. guess theyre going with the coldest solutions and then some. hope theyre right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The Euro at 18z Monday might actually be less amped up than the NAM valid the same period. People just assume that the NAM is wrong because it's the NAM but I for one can remember a handful of events where it did quite well, and most of them were similar setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 This. If there was a blend at 12z that flipped KNYC mid way I would say ok . It could be right. But when you look at the body of guidance at 12z it's an outlier. The other models see the confluence. They see the bridge over the top. If every model showed rain at 12z and only the NAM painted a snow bomb at KNYC and people bought it they would get crucified It's not the solution it s the lack of support. Thank you for taking the time to explain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Wow, what a run for the northern 1/2 of NJ, and especially from Rt.78 north. Looks like 12" plus from about Rt.78 north.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 BOX going to issue watches shortly for their forecast area per their latest AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The matter of the fact is, the NAM shouldn't be trusted at ANY range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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