Zir0b Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 We should probably see watches go up for most of the area by tonight unless something drastic happens with the 12z euro ensembles/18z suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 We are all right in the slot. I like where we all are this far out seeing the confluence and the block this should get everyone here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seth.P Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 We should probably see watches go up for most of the area by tonight unless something drastic happens with the 12z euro ensembles/18z suite Winter storm? This should not be a blizzard, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Winter storm? This should not be a blizzard, right? no, winds shouldn't reach the criteria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 If a foot is predicted and 6 inches is on the ground Monday morning with more to come, they'd announce it Monday at 5AM that schools are closed I do not think the MTA will close again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 no, winds shouldn't reach the criteria Agreed. Although I do think there will be winds gusts over 30mph since there is a 1025 high to north And 995 low to south. That's a pretty tight pressure gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The runs initialized about 60 hours before precip starts - I'd expect to see watches either with the 4 pm packages. which will be about 52 hours before the storm starts around here, given pretty good model consensus on a 6" or more snowfall for most. Unless they're feeling a bit gunshy and want to see one more model suite, tonight. Watches at 4 am would be about 40 hours before the storm starts, which is still reasonable vs. their criteria, below. Watch - A watch is generally issued in the 24 to 72 hour forecast time frame when the risk of a hazardous winter weather event has increased (50 to 80% certainty that warning thresholds will be met). It is intended to provide enough lead time so those who need to set their plans in motion can do so. A watch is issued using the WSW Winter Weather Message product and will appear as a headline in some text products such as the Zone Forecast. It will change the color, as shown in the table below, of the counties on the NWS front page map according to what type of watch has been issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 If a foot is predicted and 6 inches is on the ground Monday morning with more to come, they'd announce it Monday at 5AM that schools are closed I do not think the MTA will close again. MTA only closed because of the NWS 24-36. A foot could happen, but that's not a crippler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 We are all right in the slot. I like where we all are this far out seeing the confluence and the block this should get everyone here. Agree, I always want to be in the bullseye. The people who say they don't want to be in the bullseye X hours before the event are the same morons who say they don't like getting a pair of aces in hold-em, because "anything can happen." Sure anything can happen, but who doesn't want the highest probability possible of getting what you want (snow or winning a huge hand in poker)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Interesting. I don't think it was Valentines Day 2014 though, do you recall when it was? Edit: maybe a week later on the 21st? I recorded rain that day up here. It was actually February 13. That was a big dump for everyone, but went over to rain most places. We had 13" here and a round 2 bonus inch the next morning on top of ZR with a 20" snow depth. As I recall, I think Orange County was one of the places that went to rain for a time but more than made up for the injustice of raining while we were frozen by going back to all snow sooner and with much more snow during round 2. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42860-2132014-major-coastal-storm-observations-part-2/?p=2790738 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42860-2132014-major-coastal-storm-observations-part-2/?p=2791989 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42860-2132014-major-coastal-storm-observations-part-2/?p=2793602 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Schools closed on Monday?The buses would have to stop running.Edit: If schools did close, it would be announced 5AM Monday morning instead of 3 PM the day before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Agree, I always want to be in the bullseye. The people who say they don't want to be in the bullseye X hours before the event are the same morons who say they don't like getting a pair of aces in hold-em, because "anything can happen." Sure anything can happen, but who doesn't want the highest probability possible of getting what you want (snow or winning a huge hand in poker)? Ugh Aces, you either win a small hand or lose a big one. As far as the Monday storm Its nice to see a little agreement with the models. GFS GGEM and Euro are all roughly the same. give or take... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seth.P Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Schools closed on Monday? Highly doubtful; most I can POSSIBLY see is MTA delays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'm sticking with my belief that this will run 50-75 miles further north than currently depicted because these things always love to bump north the closer we get. I see a lot of taint but potentially a good front end dump. Worst case is this ends up a 100+ miles further north and it's mainly ice/rain which is a distinct possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 But the differences at H5 can not be ignored. It was much more amped up, especially post hour 48. I do see what you mean and all comparing 60hrs to 00z at 72 hrs, but this was over exaggerated. It didnt even register on the 500mb change map By hr 84 you can see its registering deeper trough tho Hope we can lock this in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'm sticking with my belief that this will run 50-75 miles further north than currently depicted because these things always love to bump north the closer we get. I see a lot of taint but potentially a good front end dump. Worst case is this ends up a 100+ miles further north and it's mainly ice/rain which is a distinct possibility. Its always a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Good to see the Euro hold...wish we were 48 hours out though, nothing set in stone yet, but I think the UKMET solution is off the table. Precip moves in before hour 54 on the Euro. Right around 1pm Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Precip moves in before hour 54 on the Euro. Right around 1pm Sunday. Looks like a few hours of light snow though for a little while. Heaviest comes overnight it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'm sticking with my belief that this will run 50-75 miles further north than currently depicted because these things always love to bump north the closer we get. I see a lot of taint but potentially a good front end dump. Worst case is this ends up a 100+ miles further north and it's mainly ice/rain which is a distinct possibility. I'm in the opposite camp. I've seen many times before where the PV pushes this south by 300 miles. There was one storm that had us in the bullseye during an arctic outbreak and the storm was suppressed all the way to Virginia and North Carolina. Don't underestimate the polar vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Precip moves in before hour 54 on the Euro. Right around 1pm Sunday. Wow, you're right. The initial overrunning stretches all the way back to the Central US! Impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Thats exactly what we wanted to see on the Euro. Although like the other models it has definitely trended more amped up it gives us some margin for a further north shift. Hopefully we can lock in right around this solution with the north trend slowing/stopping the next few model suites. Pretty good model consensus at this point, all we can ask for. I also figured the models would start to increase the initial overrunning precip. EURO seems to have clued into that. They never seem to latch on to the CAD signature until we get closer to the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Thats exactly what we wanted to see on the Euro. Although like the other models it has definitely trended more amped up it gives us some margin for a further north shift. Hopefully we can lock in right around this solution with the north trend slowing/stopping the next few model suites. Pretty good model consensus at this point, all we can ask for. I also figured the models would start to increase the initial overrunning precip. EURO seems to have clued into that. They never seem to latch on to the CAD signature until we get closer to the storm. Will you be in Hoboken for this one? I'm taking the cautious approach here but looking like a better shot of a 6+ storm.. 48+ hours out still.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 SREF def ticked SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Will you be in Hoboken for this one? I'm taking the cautious approach here but looking like a better shot of a 6+ storm.. 48+ hours out still.. I need to update my location as I just moved into Manhattan. But as it is I will be in Hoboken Sunday night for a SuperBowl party. So technically, yes. Haha I think 6 is a pretty solid bet right now. Even in the event that it gets too amped for us, the initial overrunning and front end dump should be pretty good for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 We should probably see watches go up for most of the area by tonight unless something drastic happens with the 12z euro ensembles/18z suite bit early, I'd say tomorrow early am package, unless this truly starts mid-day Sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 Euro Ensembles just beautiful Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Euro Ensembles just beautiful Rossi Details plz?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Details plz?! They match the operational. 5"-10"+ areawide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 SREF def ticked SE That would be incorrect. Total QPF looks almost identical to the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 That would be incorrect. Total QPF looks almost identical to the previous run. Correct. .75"-1" for everyone. And they also got colder. No threat of mix at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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