PB GFI Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I don`t know anyone who would make a call outside 2 days after todays disaster for some . I would hold off on where , how much and just stick to what the pattern looks like and what the models are hinting at . We are 6 DAYS out , todays wound has not begun to scab over yet . I will wait a long time before I bite into anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 It may turn out in 5 days that having the superbowl in NJ last year was brilliant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 People in NJ got the shaft. People on Li or even Queens see this set-up and might be a bit excited. People in NJ look at this and probably say, I'll believe it when I'm shoveling it. You got that rite. There is still time in Feb and March to see if something decent might happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Gfs is a weenie run with alot of snow chances. 40Inch winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I don`t know anyone who would make a call outside 2 days after todays disaster for some . I would hold off on where , how much and just stick to what the pattern looks like and what the models are hinting at . We are 6 DAYS out , todays wound has not begun to scab over yet . I will wait a long time before I bite into anything True. If we just stick to model runs and forego the prognostications, it might be better for everyone. But I guarantee we'll get pulled back in again and again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 People in NJ got the shaft. People on Li or even Queens see this set-up and might be a bit excited. People in NJ look at this and probably say, I'll believe it when I'm shoveling it. i got the shaft and am looking forward to our next threats anyway. I've gone through the 5 stages of grief pretty quickly, "If you're going through hell - keep going" - Winston Churchill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 i got the shaft and am looking forward to our next threats anyway. I've gone through the 5 stages of grief pretty quickly, "If you're going through hell - keep going" - Winston Churchill Lol well i was thinking of the same name haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Gfs is a weenie run with alot of snow chances. 40Inch winter? From one weenie to another, the GFS, at the moment, makes for great fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 CNN weather guy said he believes GFS upgrade worked and is buying it from here on out, good luck...the next Miller A we get the Euro is gonna be thrown under the bus and everyone is gonna bust...well at least the mainstream media will, I trust the NWS to get it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 CNN weather guy said he believes GFS upgrade worked and is buying it from here on out, good luck...the next Miller A we get the Euro is gonna be thrown under the bus and everyone is gonna bust...well at least the mainstream media will, I trust the NWS to get it right. it's not the first bust or the last...it was a bust for this area but not Boston...it was a half bust but the bust part effected more people than the none bust area's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 it's not the first bust or the last...it was a bust for this area but not Boston...it was a half bust but the bust part effected more people than the none bust area's... I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I'll be looking at the models (just cause I'd be lying if I said I wouldn't), however, I simply will not take anything seriously unless we're inside 72 hours and there is support from at least 2 or 3 models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I'll be looking at the models (just cause I'd be lying if I said I wouldn't), however, I simply will not take anything seriously unless we're inside 72 hours and there is support from at least 2 or 3 models i guess its fair to say you dont live far from me xD Im near route 46 HI! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I'll be looking at the models (just cause I'd be lying if I said I wouldn't), however, I simply will not take anything seriously unless we're inside 72 hours and there is support from at least 2 or 3 models I'm not taking anything serious till I see radar soundings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 CNN weather guy said he believes GFS upgrade worked and is buying it from here on out, good luck...the next Miller A we get the Euro is gonna be thrown under the bus and everyone is gonna bust...well at least the mainstream media will, I trust the NWS to get it right. CNN weather guy said he believes GFS upgrade worked and is buying it from here on out, good luck...the next Miller A we get the Euro is gonna be thrown under the bus and everyone is gonna bust...well at least the mainstream media will, I trust the NWS to get it right. CNN weather guy said he believes GFS upgrade worked and is buying it from here on out, good luck...the next Miller A we get the Euro is gonna be thrown under the bus and everyone is gonna bust...well at least the mainstream media will, I trust the NWS to get it right. I was reading this in an article this morning, that mets are very impressed with the new GFS. Let's see. I can only go by what you folks tell me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I was reading this in an article this morning, that mets are very impressed with the new GFS. Let's see. I can only go by what you folks tell me. From sound of your comment. Did they upgrade the softwear. Correct me if im wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_f144_us.html find a way to slow it down a bit...... Upper Jet is Hot on the prog ATM -quick all season- http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_atlantic_129_200_wnd_ht.gif and your in business with a nice snowstorm for the Metro 72hrs window for a thread ---should keep the peace dm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Well, DT has just announced his divorce from the Euro. Sad. Seemed like such a happy couple, though their child, Nam, is quite the erratic nut job. Wonder who gets custody. seems quite appropriate that DT has an erratic nut job model for a child. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGod Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Maybe some Euro make up love this weekend? It's always the best. The Euro better show up with a box of chocolates, flowers and the 20 inches of snow they owe me this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_f144_us.html feb-1-2.gif find a way to slow it down a bit...... Upper Jet is Hot on the prog ATM -quick all season- http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_atlantic_129_200_wnd_ht.gif and your in business with a nice snowstorm for the Metro dm Yo T, get an avatar already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_f144_us.html feb-1-2.gif find a way to slow it down a bit...... Upper Jet is Hot on the prog ATM -quick all season- http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_atlantic_129_200_wnd_ht.gif and your in business with a nice snowstorm for the Metro 72hrs window for a thread ---should keep the peace dm Check out the 18z GEFS 500 mb at 120 . Does that quasi bridge work ? So early I have no way of knowing what the N Atlantic is going to look like in 72 hours . So I agree with you , we will need a block with this one . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I was reading this in an article this morning, that mets are very impressed with the new GFS. Let's see. I can only go by what you folks tell me. Its possible it's going to be good with Miller Bs, we'll have to see, but so far its been unimpressive with Miller As Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Check out the 18z GEFS 500 mb at 120 . Does that quasi bridge work ? So early I have no way of knowing what the N Atlantic is going to look like in 72 hours . So I agree with you , we will need a block with this one . http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015012718/gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_25.png 8-12" rough sketch per gefs ...so maybe just enough??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Euros warm with this storm, Canadians cold, and GFS is in between lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Euros warm with this storm, Canadians cold, and GFS is in between lolAt this point it means nothing, but if its still the case 12 hours before the Storm starts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 At this point it means nothing, but if its still the case 12 hours before the Storm starts... Would not surprise me, I just think we really need to stay sharp with these upcoming storms and not be biased ourselves cause of what happened yesterday... I have a feelig we could get bit in the a** again if the GFS shows storm and the euro says no, we toss the euro cause we're convinced it's not doing well this year and GFS fails lol Please don't think I'm being a downer I just can see all the "throw out the euro"--"it failed last time" blah blah posts I still like the euro for everything BUT miller B's Just my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 All I know is that something needs to be done with the inconsistency of these models.... However for this storm in particular only yet NAM and EURO were ever thrilled about it... All of the other models more or less continued to show a moderate snowstorm for the area, but the majority of us just kept discounting them because the EURO kept showing a bomb for 3 straight days. It never changed only until the 0z run last night. In fact it was even a bomb at 12z when the clipper was coming through the area. It obviously was a major bust for the NYC area but certainly not for Eastern LI and Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Would not surprise me, I just think we really need to stay sharp with these upcoming storms and not be biased ourselves cause of what happened yesterday... I have a feelig we could get bit in the a** again if the GFS shows storm and the euro says no, we toss the euro cause we're convinced it's not doing well this year and GFS fails lol Please don't think I'm being a downer I just can see all the "throw out the euro"--"it failed last time" blah blah posts I still like the euro for everything BUT miller B's Just my opinion I think we just have more experience now and can understand the bias of the Euro. It tends to like the capture and spin idea sooner than normally happens. We've seen that with several storms now. Miller Bs are incredibly tough forecasts, especially when they are as charged and dynamic as what we had yesterday. Anytime you are waiting for a storm to close off, it's not only nerve racking, but an hour either direction can alter the forecast significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I think we just have more experience now and can understand the bias of the Euro. It tends to like the capture and spin idea sooner than normally happens. We've seen that with several storms now. Miller Bs are incredibly tough forecasts, especially when they are as charged and dynamic as what we had yesterday. Anytime you are waiting for a storm to close off, it's not only nerve racking, but an hour either direction can alter the forecast significantly. Not to mention a red flag shoulda popped in all our minds when not a single short term model liked the western precip making past the Hudson...I've .never watched so many model runs mid storm.. Never again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Not to mention a red flag shoulda popped in all our minds when not a single short term model liked the western precip making past the Hudson...I've .never watched so many model runs mid storm.. Never again At least not until Sunday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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