PB GFI Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 We are still 72hrs away from the event. This can/will change. That opinion was based solely on what that run of the model was saying , in no way does one make a forecast 72 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 However I do like that the AO will be negative along with a neutral NAO as that would favor more snow versus rain around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Overunning to miller b now Someone is going to get demolished Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Meteorologically speaking, I honestly think the GGEM makes the most sense. Precipitation-wise, I agree. I'll admit I'm a tad worried about the north trend since while we do have confluence, the shortwave keeps trending more amped, generally speaking, so it can gain some latitude before hitting the confluence. Regardless though a lot of us would be in for several inches + before a changeover anyway in that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Overunning to miller b now I'm fairly certain that's always been the case, it's not particularly clear on some of the models because the transfer happens quickly and I think a lot of people assume it was the origional surface low. The Euro is probably the only model left that trully had one surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Someone is going to get demolished[/quote quote] Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Good example was last Valentines Day. It never got above freezing here and we had ZR while the rest of the region had plain rain. Admittedly that was flukeish and I never did figure out why, but I recall at the time the denial that it could even be possible from some mainlander posters in OC. Latitude and those hills protect you from light S winds . NE winds come off New England so CAD sometimes sinks to the N shore in marginal sits . I've seen 6 inches fall in laurel hollow while 2 fell in long beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Someone is going to get demolished It's looking like NNJ, LHV, SE CT points East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 There is an incredible amount of thermal packing with this setup, so with the high to the north and the storm pushing in, you're going to get even more mid-level frontogenesis than normal. Frontogenesis could honestly be through the roof, so I'm not surprised the GGEM is spitting out such high precip amounts. This reminds me of a great event back in the 90's or early 2000's that came in on a Sunday night and exceeded expectations. I just can't remember the exact date, but the NWS had to upgrade their amounts once the storm got underway. That one was a touch warmer with very heavy wet snow that snapped a bunch of branches across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Latitude and those hills protect you from light S winds . NE winds come off New England so CAD sometimes sinks to the N shore in marginal sits . I've seen 6 inches fall in laurel hollow while 2 fell in long beach. Definitely, but last February was a true oddity. It was raining in the southern half of Connecticut, it was raining in Orange County, NNJ, etc. Only a 15 or 20 mile stretch along the north shore never got above freezing. I am not claiming that is common; it was bizarre. Almost as bizarre as arguing about thermal profiles at hour 75 on the NAM But if the take away is that looking at soundings is a good thing, then I have made a small difference. Some of the pretty colored maps make little sense (like wxbell snow maps). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 This reminds me of a great event back in the 90's or early 2000's that came in on a Sunday night and exceeded expectations. I just can't remember the exact date, but the NWS had to upgrade their amounts once the storm got underway. That one was a touch warmer with very heavy wet snow that snapped a bunch of branches across the region. That sounds like 3/14/99, that was a Sunday night but that was a much different setup than this, more or less a Miller A that made its own cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Good example was last Valentines Day. It never got above freezing here and we had ZR while the rest of the region had plain rain. Admittedly that was flukeish and I never did figure out why, but I recall at the time the denial that it could even be possible from some mainlander posters in OC. Interesting. I don't think it was Valentines Day 2014 though, do you recall when it was? Edit: maybe a week later on the 21st? I recorded rain that day up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 2/13/14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The GFF Ensembles look a hair colder but I don't have access to the individual members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 2/13/14 Gotcha, IMBY I never went to plain rain that day, high for the day was 31 but I did have freezing rain for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 There is an incredible amount of thermal packing with this setup, so with the high to the north and the storm pushing in, you're going to get even more mid-level frontogenesis than normal. Frontogenesis could honestly be through the roof, so I'm not surprised the GGEM is spitting out such high precip amounts. Thats why I am re thinking only 10 to 1. The forcing on the front end should create enough upward motion combined with cold 850s for the first half of the storm that ratios will turn out well. As the mid levels erode , you get back to 10 to 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 NAVGEM more amped than the GFS...not something you want to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 As you can see, the mix line gets VERY CLOSE. Maybe it never makes it to the city but it's not far away. Thats certainly a brief mix at TTN but again, just brief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 There is an incredible amount of thermal packing with this setup, so with the high to the north and the storm pushing in, you're going to get even more mid-level frontogenesis than normal. Frontogenesis could honestly be through the roof, so I'm not surprised the GGEM is spitting out such high precip amounts.Yes. Exactly.Edit: This is also creates heart breaking cut-offs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seth.P Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 All I am going to state is 72 hours out...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 All I am going to state is 72 hours out...... Can't ignore trends or the fact that almost every model is in some sort of agreement tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seth.P Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Can't ignor trends or the fact that almost every model is in some sort of agreement tho True, I suppose I am still wrestling with last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 True, I suppose I am still wrestling with last week. We all are lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Very early on the EURO but trends look good. The shortwave looks a tad weaker and a bit east & the ULL in Canada is a pinch farther south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The Euro is coming in stronger and more amped up. Looking like the GGEM at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Very early on the EURO but trends look good. The shortwave looks a tad weaker and a bit east & the ULL in Canada is a pinch farther south I disagree with this.. It's def more amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The energy is much more consolidated this run, overall a stronger more amped up look. Very GGEM esque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'll finish the PBP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Snow knocking on the door by the second half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The differences regarding the amplitude of the trough are significant at 60hrs. Much sharper and more amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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