IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Then once the coastal moves offshore winds flip back around and temps crash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Oh I have no doubt it's 100x better but the nam was the first to make the northern shift and everyone wanted to throw it away not everyone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Looks to be about an 18hr event give or take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 North NJ gets wacked good on the CMC.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 More of a classic miller B on the GGEM its pretty far north but starts interacting with the block and PV and goes east and develops offshore. There's no guarantee though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 As you can see, the mix line gets VERY CLOSE. Maybe it never makes it to the city but it's not far away. This should be a sign for you. When you see a warm bias model keep the 0 line into Monmouth county with confluence and a block with such and a cold air mass with high rates your mind should immediately say ok any heavy rate will easily win out even if you see a mid level bump. As it is this is likely to correct to an even more CAD signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Long duration storm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 not everyone... I was kinda hoping we would get this storm and the euro would be the only model to show it.. Lol.. So the king could regain his throne haha.. But this much concesnsus and trends towards a near perfect track and stronger storm for most is about as much as you can hope for after this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 There is an incredible amount of thermal packing with this setup, so with the high to the north and the storm pushing in, you're going to get even more mid-level frontogenesis than normal. Frontogenesis could honestly be through the roof, so I'm not surprised the GGEM is spitting out such high precip amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The GGEM looks identical to about 40% of the 00z EPS members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I posted the precip reflectivity for the nam in my earlier post.. Snow to rain back to snow for all of LI I looked at soundings and there is nothing in them to support the colors on that pretty map. In the NAM scenario, the north shore is all snow. South shore is close too for that matter. Try looking at soundings and show me where there is an above freezing layer in that run. There might be, because I haven't bee able to get my hands on a skuT for hour 75, but it doesn't look like it from the uppers I have seen. Even 925 is around -10C, i.e., very cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 And of course New England could have another huge storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 This should be a sign for you. When you see a warm bias model keep the 0 line into Monmouth county with confluence and a block with such and a cold air mass with high rates your mind should immediately say ok any heavy rate will easily win out even if you see a mid level bump. As it is this is likely to correct to an even more CAD signature. We are still 72hrs away from the event. This can/will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The GGEM looks identical to about 40% of the 00z EPS members. do those EPS members have the crazy amount of 15" like the GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Monday's temperatures are in the lower to mid 20s and I'm on eastern long island...now unless I'm wrong,which I'm 99% confident I'm Not,lol that would be snow,unless upper levels were warm and it would be ice. But it's not so it should be all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 We are still 72hrs away from the event. This can/will change. I'd say 60 as it starts midnight Sunday evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'd feel safer if I was farther north certainly north of the city. I wouldn't be surprised if SNE reaps the most from this storm while we get a lot of taint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 if these little north bumps don't stop we're a few model runs away from getting mostly rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'd feel safer if I was farther north certainly north of the city. I wouldn't be surprised if SNE reaps the most from this storm while we get a lot of taint. I wouldn't feel comfortable at all if I was south of 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Monday's temperatures are in the lower to mid 20s and I'm on eastern long island...now unless I'm wrong,which I'm 99% confident I'm Not,lol that would be snow,unless upper levels were warm and it would be ice. But it's not so it should be all snow You can't go by your current forecast temps. If the low track is close enough we are going to have an easterly component to the wind for a short period of time and that is going to warm the layers, and you will see the forecast temps be adjusted up accordingly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 if these little north bumps don't stop we're a few model runs away from getting mostly rain Exactly. The trend is clear. Need a model suite to stop it, but with the Ukie and RGEM(albeit at the end of its run) so far north Im not feeling particularly peachy for the city at least. Lets see what the Euro says in an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I was kinda hoping we would get this storm and the euro would be the only model to show it.. Lol.. So the king could regain his throne haha.. But this much concesnsus and trends towards a near perfect track and stronger storm for most is about as much as you can hope for after this weekend and yet, I'm still oddly unsettled about this - and not just because of the bust from Monday... something about the northern trend worries me for the immediate NYC area.. and we no longer will have the ratios... but perhaps more QPF to work with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 There is an incredible amount of thermal packing with this setup, so with the high to the north and the storm pushing in, you're going to get even more mid-level frontogenesis than normal. Frontogenesis could honestly be through the roof, so I'm not surprised the GGEM is spitting out such high precip amounts. Meteorologically speaking, I honestly think the GGEM makes the most sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Look at the N shore of Nassau county that goes to my point. You guys don't understand the N shore of Long Island. You think its some warm spot. The GGEM puts down 15 there. Long Island jets NE they benefit from latitude at times Some of you don't get that. The 0 line is south of them here. Good example was last Valentines Day. It never got above freezing here and we had ZR while the rest of the region had plain rain. Admittedly that was flukeish and I never did figure out why, but I recall at the time the denial that it could even be possible from some mainlander posters in OC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 if these little north bumps don't stop we're a few model runs away from getting mostly rain Never gonna happen, the pattern just not support anything much north of this, and because the confluence from the departing clipper does not really lift out til after 48-54 hours, this would not move north til fairly late which means we'd get slammed on the front end anyway, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 and yet, I'm still oddly unsettled about this - and not just because of the bust from Monday... something about the northern trend worries me for the immediate NYC area.. and we no longer will have the ratios... but perhaps more QPF to work with I'm biased cause I'm about 50 miles north of NYC so I won't pretend that I don't want the trend to stay north... History shows that when I get my best snows in the LHV the city usually mixes at some point.. Unfortunately... Which is why the "blizzard" was so exciting cause we were all in on the big stuff, or so we thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Overunning to miller b now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 That was the best model run of the year for the interior, outside of the one rouge Euro run last weekend and the 1/26 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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