Blizzardo Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I see 18-20 on that map!! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Nam isn't so useless after all lol It's significantly better than the NAM, would give Trenton north a foot of snow. I would gladly take that even if it taints a bit. Here's to hoping for a region wide hit, no reason to be bitter if someone else Jackpots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Has this event turned to a Monday event or a Sunday into Monday's event still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It's significantly better than the NAM, would give Trenton north a foot of snow. I would gladly take that even if it taints a bit. Here's to hoping for a region wide hit, no reason to be bitter if someone else Jackpots. Oh I have no doubt it's 100x better but the nam was the first to make the northern shift and everyone wanted to throw it away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The GGEM is a monster for NYC and doesn't taint. It's all snow. It's 0 line at 72 is f in south of toms river. It's 1.5 at KNYC and a huge hit. Do you not see the snow map which shows lower accumultions along the immediate coast? Maybe the city doesn't quite flip but it's very close. The mid-level warming makes it onto LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Just hoping this is trending too far north... UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Holy Cow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Taking it verbatim it's a great run unless you live on the southeast shore of LI which most people here don't, but I can not stress enough how close the mid-level warming gets. And there could be a sneaky warm layer in there that's not completley obvious since it would be brief and we can't see each individual hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I believe the GGEM handled last Monday's storm fairly well. Still I'll feel more confident if the EURO shows similar amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Just hoping this is trending too far north... UKMET The UKMET has been the most north model on this for the last 3-4 run cycles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 This is clearly trending north on most models. The GFS has held steady but its also usually south and east at this range. Im not sold on this being a mostly frozen event for NYC. At all. Hopefully I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The UKMET has been the most north model on this for the last 3-4 run cycles For one of the most reliable models that is concerning... no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Do you not see the snow map which shows lower accumultions along the immediate coast? Maybe the city doesn't quite flip but it's very close. The mid-level warming makes it onto LI. The 0 line at 850 is S of NYC the snow map is 12 to 14 in northern monmouth county the city and across the island. With 1.4 to 1.5 inches liquid falling does that look like 3 to 6 hours of a change over. DOES IT ?????? hour 78 on GGEM is a show for Nassau county. The 0 line is S and .75 falls in 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The precip type maps will sort it out. Here is the initial WAA precip just in time for the end of the Super Bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The 0 line at 850 is S of NYC the snow map is 12 to 14 in northern monmouth county the city and across the island. With 1.4 to 1.5 inches liquid falling does that look like 3 to 6 hours of a change over. DOES IT ?????? hour 78 on GGEM is a show for Nassau county. The 0 line is S and .75 falls in 6 hours It's not just about 850mb temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 For one of the most reliable models that is concerning... no?At OZ it had it near Cleveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The 0 line at 850 is S of NYC the snow map is 12 to 14 in northern monmouth county the city and across the island. With 1.4 to 1.5 inches liquid falling does that look like 3 to 6 hours of a change over. DOES IT ?????? hour 78 on GGEM is a show for Nassau county. The 0 line is S and .75 falls in 6 hours Never gets above the low 20's at JFK on this run of the GFS Monday morning with NE winds keeping the CAD going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The 12z nam is not anywhere near Long Island jackpot... It switches over to heavy rain for hours Not on the output that I looked at. Sounds like we aren't looking at the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Holy Cow! Look at the N shore of Nassau county that goes to my point. You guys don't understand the N shore of Long Island. You think its some warm spot. The GGEM puts down 15 there. Long Island jets NE they benefit from latitude at times Some of you don't get that. The 0 line is south of them here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GGEM probably too overamped...no way anybody is getting 20" from this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Never gets above the low 20's at JFK on this run of the GFS Monday morning with NE winds keeping the CAD going. Dude I just can't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Well that certainly makes the GGEM easier to see. It's a miller B. What a CAD signitature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 As you can see, the mix line gets VERY CLOSE. Maybe it never makes it to the city but it's not far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Dude I just can't. That HP is originating up in Alaska and the 50/50 allows it to stand its ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Not on the output that I looked at. Sounds like we aren't looking at the same thing. I posted the precip reflectivity for the nam in my earlier post.. Snow to rain back to snow for all of LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Well that certainly makes the GGEM easier to see. It's a miller B. What a CAD signitature.[/quote An absolute monster on the Canadian. I think the consensus is building for a significant storm and the south whiff trend is becoming less likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Well that certainly makes the GGEM easier to see. It's a miller B. What a CAD signitature.It's a great look, everyone cashes in nicely. Regarding the UKIE, you can see the isobars bending towards the coast, it probably has a similar look but is just futher NE with the LP system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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