IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Rather than trying to respond to quite a few individual posts about the energy over the Southwest, if the energy ejects faster and is able to phase with our Northern stream vort it would (A) slow down the pattern and ( B ) probably cause the system to initially cut to the West, hit the block and then redevelop. The only operational global model that I've seen do this so far is the JMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I was gonna say, even with high ratios no one in here is at a foot on GFS 12z The ratios would be typical here for this storm, maybe even a little less than normal. You need the 850mb low to stay further south if you want the higher ratios. But then you lose moisture and someone on the North side really gets the shaft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I was gonna say, even with high ratios no one in here is at a foot on GFS 12z exactly and for the CNJ/NNJ/NYC area ratios are not going to be that impressive based o the surface track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The strongest lift should occur just north of the mix line, so if you want to take the NAM at face value it would be quite the hit for Northern NJ and the LHV. If you want to take it literally, 12z NAM is a north shore LI jackpot. Just a chance of a little sleet mix, but the soundings I've seen so far would be all snow. I really want to see a skuT for hour 75, but it looks like a very sharp gradient with MBY on the snowy side of it and over 1.25" QPF. The details will change of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 KNYC is .8 on the GFS. I would like to see what the upward motion looks like before I assume ratios. Blue do you have the LGA soundings ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Rather than trying to respond to quite a few individual posts about the energy over the Southwest, if the energy ejects faster and is able to phase with our Northern stream vort it would (A) slow down the pattern and ( B ) probably cause the system to initially cut to the West, hit the block and then redevelop. The only operational global model that I've seen do this so far is the JMA. The system does not try to start moving more N until it reaches the MA region, this may be a response to the system trying to pump as it reaches the coast, I'm not sure I buy that idea or not. I would feel pretty good right now as long as I was north of TTN. Any movement north with this is likely going to be late and not occur far enough west to really do much for coastal areas north of there other than maybe have a period of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Not even close to its range. Rossi What is its range? 24 hours when it showed me getting 40" this week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I just have this feeling that the cutter that redevelops is the evenutal outcome, too many Euro ensemble members show that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 What is it's range? 24 hours when it showed me getting 40" this week? There is no range!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 If you want to take it literally, 12z NAM is a north shore LI jackpot. Just a chance of a little sleet mix, but the soundings I've seen so far would be all snow. I really want to see a skuT for hour 75, but it looks like a very sharp gradient with MBY on the snowy side of it and over 1.25" QPF. The details will change of course. The 12z nam is not anywhere near Long Island jackpot... It switches over to heavy rain for hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 PDII was one of the coldest setups that we've ever had and even that had some mixing at times in the coastal plain. Just so people can reminisce. It started snowing when it was 14 degrees. http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KNYC/2003/2/16/DailyHistory.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I just have this feeling that the cutter that redevelops is the evenutal outcome, too many Euro ensemble members show that scenario. IF the pv is modeled correctly this doesn't cut. The upper air pattern is supportive of this storm sliding to our south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 6-8" areawide ( More down toward PHL & SE New England ) These maps are terrible to read. The colors are too close together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 These maps are terrible to read. The colors are too close together. try this one - but honestly no need for snowmaps right now - just to give you an idea.. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015013012&time=48&var=ASNOWI&hour=099 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 That map is more like 10-12" for NYC try this one - but honestly no need for snowmaps right now - just to give you an idea.. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015013012&time=48&var=ASNOWI&hour=099 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The 12z nam is not anywhere near Long Island jackpot... It switches over to heavy rain for hours I haven't seen the 12Z Nam to agree or disagree but I can tell you that I have seen it on more than a few occasions pour on the south shore of Long Island and snow like a bastard on the N Shore. There can be quite a difference from S to N. As both Bill and I are in almost the same location we speak from experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I haven't seen the 12Z Nam to agree or disagree but I can tell you that I have seen it on more than a few occasions pour on the south shore of Long Island and snow like a bastard on the N Shore. There can be quite a difference from S to N. As both Bill and I are in almost the same location we speak from experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 KNYC is .8 on the GFS. I would like to see what the upward motion looks like before I assume ratios. Blue do you have the LGA soundings ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 People just north of that mix line are going to get a huge thumping of snow we've seen it many times before. We've seen it to a smaller degree with the storm before the Tuesday snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The GGEM is going to be a big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 try this one - but honestly no need for snowmaps right now - just to give you an idea.. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015013012&time=48&var=ASNOWI&hour=099 Oh, I know. I'm just voicing my dislike for them. I prefer the clown maps. Much easier to read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 No joke, the GGEM is probably 150 miles north of 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 No joke, the GGEM is probably 150 miles north of 00z. can you share what areas of this subforum get hit - wasnt famiiar with its 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 994mb that exits off the Delmarva. The mixing line gets very close to the city, What a nuke for anyone just North of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 994mb that exits off the Delmarva. The mixing line gets very close to the city, What a nuke for anyone just North of that. Nam isn't so useless after all lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The City probably taints for 3-6hrs before the winds flip around. It's a massive hit for the NW burbs. 12"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The GGEM is a monster for NYC and doesn't taint. It's all snow. It's 0 line at 72 is f in south of toms river. It's 1.5 at KNYC and a huge hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 ggem is at least 12+ for the majority of the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 These maps are terrible to read. The colors are too close together. It would sure be a treat if NYC could log the first snow events of 6 inches or more only a week apart since 2005 and 1994. http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/sixplussnow.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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