IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The northern edge is about 40 miles south of 06z so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The SE ridge is stronger too so it's being forced North some but also South at the same time. Going for the sqeeze play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The SE ridge is stronger too so it's being forced North some but also South at the same time. Going for the sqeeze play.Going to show some heavier snows somewhere because of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 There is more confluence on the GFS and will south of the NAM. Looks great at 66 . All hail the new king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Beautiful hit for nyc. Looks similiar to 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillyBlizzard17 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Hr 66 has 850's south of Philly still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 At 72hrs the trough is quite amped up, almost a negative tilt. Looks quite similar to the NAM at H5. If this was a day or so behind the whole thing might have been sheared out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The northern edge is about 40 miles south of 06z so far. Northern edge is further South from a stronger pv but compare it to 06z the low itself is north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Look how tightly packed the 850mb temps are, I bet we some strong 700mb forcing with a heavy thump of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 Big Snows Trenton North!! .75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Let isentropic do the pbp please, just him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Low exits near oc maryland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 There is a warm layer in there. The 850mb low tracks right over NJ and the 0c line almost makes it to LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Heavy snow for KNYC. Mix to rain line is in AC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Strong block and 50/50 works magic on the 12z GFS. Those should be permanent features from Thanksgiving to St.Patrick's every year by law. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It was still colder at 850mb than 06z. SV has a feature that allows you to see the change at certain levels from previous runs and it was 1 to 2 C colder at 850mb. However it was still warmer than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Strong block and 50/50 works magic on the 12z GFS. Those should be permanent features from Thanksgiving to St.Patrick's day every year by law. It's colder than its 6z. If you want to see what a block does look at hour 72 where the 0 line gets to Toms River then boom the 850s collapse S past AC at hour 78. Those NE wind just CAD the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 There is more confluence on the GFS and will south of the NAM. Looks great at 66 . All hail the new king.not till it verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Snowmap shows near a foot for nyc and more towards LI and SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'm still not convinced that models are properly handling the energy over the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 12z GFS @ 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 great run for NYC area and epic for boston again... so jealous of their week but would easily take 6-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Still too early to uncork the champagne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'm still not convinced that models are properly handling the energy over the southwest. meaning they are still holding some back or kicking out too much? Ramifications? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'm still not convinced that models are properly handling the energy over the southwest. So what does that mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Snowmap shows near a foot for nyc and more towards LI and SNE Yeah because thermal profiles get dicey for awhile until after the low center moves offshore and winds flip around. This was very close to causing mixing problems for southern areas of this sub-forum. The 850mb low passes right over SNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Still too early to uncork the champagne. How about spiking the foootball? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 12z GFS @ 72 75 mile R/S line difference between the GFS and NAM then by hour 78 the GFS collapses that line S of AC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Snowmap shows near a foot for nyc and more towards LI and SNE 6-8" areawide ( More down toward PHL & SE New England ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 6-8" areawide I was gonna say, even with high ratios no one in here is at a foot on GFS 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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