Zir0b Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 We have pretty decent blocking this time at least... there's a bit of ridging going into greenland but it's east based. I wouldn't really call it decent blocking. Let's hope the current clipper bombing out is able to suppress heights enough for a good event here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 You have been doing this long enough. It's going to change again next run. Why do people live and die by each model run? You should see other forums. They are really worried about rain after seeing the nam lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 these events can shift north at the last minute without blocking First of all the NAM past 60 should always be ignored - with that anchoring banana high to the north - who do you think is going to win that battle ? The storm isn't strong enough to push it out of the way so you are goin to have alot of overrunning north of south jersey as temps fail to reach freezing monday so any mixing will be various forms of ice and only for a brief period as the storm can only get so far north and will have to slip south of the HP because it is blocked so it will change back to snow after a brief mix - of course this is all just speculation at this point many more model runs still too go....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 1 we have confluence through the lakes. 2 we have blocking compliments of today's clipper just look at 500 by hour 60 I believe this south . I would not expect this to " jump north " . I think NAM is too far N and is over amped considering what is going on in the N Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 First of all the NAM past 60 should always be ignored - with that anchoring banana high to the north - who do you think is going to win that battle ? The storm isn't strong enough to push it out of the way so you are goin to have alot of overrunning north of south jersey as temps fail to reach freezing monday so any mixing will be various forms of ice and only for a brief period as the storm can only get so far north and will have to slip south of the HP because it is blocked so it will change back to snow after a brief mix - of course this is all just speculation at this point many more model runs still too go....... I would agree with everything accept that the nam should be ignored.. NO model should be ignored, analysed and taken with a grain of salt perhaps but never ignored Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 1 we have confluence through the lakes. 2 we have blocking compliments of today's clipper just look at 500 by hour 60 I believe this south . I would not expect this to " jump north " . I think NAM is too far N and is over amped considering what is going on in the N Atlantic. What did you think of the 0z euro? If the 12z shifts 25 miles north it will look like the NAM for NYC. Not trying to be a debbie downer just looking out for what could go wrong in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It should be noted that the period of blocking that is forecast to be developing could shape a 500 mb pattern more conducive to a track somewhat farther to the south. Between hours 60 and 66, one sees the NAM try to "cut" the storm--turning it more to the north--before it heads almost due eastward after. This motion suggests that the NAM responds to growing blocking that is forecast. The issue concerns timing. If the forecast blocking is more robust than the NAM currently anticipates or it develops faster, the kind of northward motion that was seen between hours 60 and 66 might not occur at all. If not, then the storm could exit along the Delmarva or southern NJ. In short, there's still quite a bit of uncertainty present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Im still waiting for my 40 inches for monday oh you mean the 24-30 the EURO was MOST consistent on.. Ant - you're better than this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 What did you think of the 0z euro? If the 12z shifts 25 miles north it will look like the NAM for NYC. Not trying to be a debbie downer just looking out for what could go wrong in this setup. Both euro and GFS have trended north the last 4 runs...as well as the nam.. So ignoring the nam makes no sense right now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 1 we have confluence through the lakes. 2 we have blocking compliments of today's clipper just look at 500 by hour 60 I believe this south . I would not expect this to " jump north " . I think NAM is too far N and is over amped considering what is going on in the N Atlantic. rest of the 12z suite will tell the story--models have been going north since yesterday-granted it's the NAM but it continues the trend-need to see it stop or most of the subforum is looking at mixed slop or rain further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 First of all the NAM past 60 should always be ignored - with that anchoring banana high to the north - who do you think is going to win that battle ? The storm isn't strong enough to push it out of the way so you are goin to have alot of overrunning north of south jersey as temps fail to reach freezing monday so any mixing will be various forms of ice and only for a brief period as the storm can only get so far north and will have to slip south of the HP because it is blocked so it will change back to snow after a brief mix - of course this is all just speculation at this point many more model runs still too go....... very much agreed... this run should be a little bit further South with the H to North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The worst case sceario is that the surface low tracks too far northeast before redevelopment occurs, and even then it would be a heavy front end dump for everyone. We either want the surface low to track further West so that the redevelopment occurs further SW and we can get a stronger coastal in here or you want a Euro scenario where the main surface low tracks over the mid-atlantic. I don't see a situation where the surface low would make it into Upstate NY and flip everyone to rain, and even if that occured, the CAD signiature is strong and it would likely be ice rather than plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It should be noted that the period of blocking that is forecast to be developing could shape a 500 mb pattern more conducive to a track somewhat farther to the south. Between hours 60 and 66, one sees the NAM try to "cut" the storm--turning it more to the north--before it heads almost due eastward after. This motion suggests that the NAM responds to growing blocking that is forecast. The issue concerns timing. If the forecast blocking is more robust than the NAM currently anticipates or it develops faster, the kind of northward motion that was seen between hours 60 and 66 might not occur at all. If not, then the storm could exit along the Delmarva or southern NJ. In short, there's still quite a bit of uncertainty present. Any type of surface low to our southwest should hit the block and redevelop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 rest of the 12z suite will tell the story--models have been going north since yesterday-granted it's the NAM but it continues the trend-need to see it stop or most of the subforum is looking at mixed slop or rain further south. This hanging on every model run is just pure ignorance. A model can show any solution if you look at the pattern and say ok why is that right or wrong. Of course the NAM changes over. But it's /)$& wrong. Your pattern dictates the center is too far N. stop worrying about the " model suite " and use your head. If there is confluence and blocking where SHOULD the center go to PITT ? Or DC ? It's wrong. It doesn't fit the pattern. It's a joke to analyze it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 1/7/94 is pretty high up on the analog list. Ice around here. Big snow storm from the LHV and points North and East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 1/7/94 is pretty high up on the analog list. Ice around here. Big snow storm from the LHV and points North and East.On the very off chance the primary makes it into up state ny, then most areas will need to be very worried about an ice storm, at least for a part of the storm. There is a plethora of snow pack for the eastern half of this forum, the ground is frozen, and that HP means business. However, as has been stated, this run does not make sense nor does it fit the synoptic pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 1/7/94 is pretty high up on the analog list. Ice around here. Big snow storm from the LHV and points North and East. Heights were much higher at 500mb in the East a day or two before that storm, not really even close to what we have 42-48 hours out from this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Alright I've got the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 This hanging on every model run is just pure ignorance. A model can show any solution if you look at the pattern and say ok why is that right or wrong. Of course the NAM changes over. But it's /)$& wrong. Your pattern dictates the center is too far N. stop worrying about the " model suite " and use your head. If there is confluence and blocking where SHOULD the center go to PITT ? Or DC ? It's wrong. It doesn't fit the pattern. It's a joke to analyze it. Wouldn't say I'm hanging on every model run...multiple models/runs have shown a definitive trend north. Is it right/wrong? Who knows....but I think that's worth analyzing IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 This hanging on every model run is just pure ignorance. A model can show any solution if you look at the pattern and say ok why is that right or wrong. Of course the NAM changes over. But it's /)$& wrong. Your pattern dictates the center is too far N. stop worrying about the " model suite " and use your head. If there is confluence and blocking where SHOULD the center go to PITT ? Or DC ? It's wrong. It doesn't fit the pattern. It's a joke to analyze it. lol. Yep. How strong are peoples' short term memories. My guess, is not very good. I'd still ride the GFS and Euro ensemble mean, until tomorrow. The trend this year has also been to strongly favor locations south and east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Our shortwave is a tick West of 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 This hanging on every model run is just pure ignorance. A model can show any solution if you look at the pattern and say ok why is that right or wrong. Of course the NAM changes over. But it's /)$& wrong. Your pattern dictates the center is too far N. stop worrying about the " model suite " and use your head. If there is confluence and blocking where SHOULD the center go to PITT ? Or DC ? It's wrong. It doesn't fit the pattern. It's a joke to analyze it. Agree that no one should be jumping of a single model run, but there is no denying the overall trend since 12z yesterday on virtually all the models to bring this much further north. It looks to me that the exiting clipper is causing the PV over Quebec to temporarily elongate in an east-west manner which allows heights to increase here, and hence allows the system to track further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The energy over the southwest is also a bit more amped up. Very minor differences through the first 24hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It definitly looks like there is going to at least be some interaction between the energy over the southwest and our northern stream shortwave dropping through the Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 All the differences so far are very subtle. It's looking a lot like 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 12z RGEM.. Looks North ( Me likey ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The PV in SE Canada looks stronger, a bit more pressing between the SE ridge and the PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 In any event the surface low is in the identical position at 57hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 And with the PV being stronger you can see it pushing the northern edge of the now south at 60hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 This doesnt look like the nam at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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