UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 12z nam is a major hit for NNJ LHV, bring a mixing issues into the city and Long Island but it's close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Onto a respectable model ( gfs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Big hit NW burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 NAM coming in about 50 miles north....might be some precip issues on this one. You would think with such a strong 50/50 the track would end up further south than the NAM is showing. But I guess that we'll see when the GFS and Euro come in later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 No plain rain north of about TTN on this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Onto a respectable model ( gfs) please stop.. total weenie comment. if it showed a foot of snow in your back yard you would have said the same? unreal. been a shift north on EVERY model... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The NAM is over an inch liquid for everyone here. The mix line gets right to I-80 and the GWB. 850mb temps warm to -4C all the way up into the LHV but 700mb are a bit colder, espeically outside of NYC. Overall a good run for the interior but ratios would be much lower than what most people here are expecting. Maybe 6:1 or 8:1, especially for the coast. The 09z SREF members are in fairly good agreement on a similar scenario. It's unfortunate that the surface low is going to track a bit further NW and allow for a secondary to develop further south before coming north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Would not be rain on this one....ice/sleet most likely with the surface cold 6z NAM had rain into the southern boroughs....winds shift to the east. This run would probably bring rain into NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Onto a respectable model ( gfs) It's funny how quick you are to toss the NAM when it shows rain for your backyard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The 0z suite of GFS/Euro were just about ideal for NYC...I wouldn't even mind a tick south adjustment on 12z Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 If i get ~1" LE of which 60-70% is snow...and the rest ice/sleet fair enough....thats glacier building material. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 please stop.. total weenie comment. if it showed a foot of snow in your back yard you would have said the same? unreal. been a shift north on EVERY model... Im still waiting for my 40 inches for monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It's funny how quick you are to toss the NAM when it shows rain for your backyard Nyc gets a good thump on this run so its not a lost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 This would probably be 6-10" from about Rt.78/Rt.80 north...with some taint...not bad...Very intense front end thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Nyc gets a good thump on this run so its not a lost You have been doing this long enough. It's going to change again next run. Why do people live and die by each model run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 This is going to be a thread the needle situation. It will be nice to see LHV and points NW get in on the action, but that cold air to the north is dense and will tough to displace. The models usually have a difficult time with eroding cold air. Going to be interesting to see this evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Did any of you learn your lesson about the NAM from the last storm? I'm still waiting for my 30" that I never received, and the 5" rainstorm that it promised me last Spring and the 250" of snow that it owes me from over the years. The model is completley unreliable, even 24hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 You would think with such a strong 50/50 the track would end up further south than the NAM is showing. But I guess that we'll see when the GFS and Euro come in later on. Ian in the MA forum said it was an east based block, pretender 50/50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Someone will get rocked with that temp difference 50-100 miles north of NYC temps are in the single digits while in S NJ in the 40's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 NAM is usually the amped up model as always, what is with the humping (not hugging) of every single model run, where's the 500mb analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Someone will get rocked with that temp difference 50-100 miles north of NYC temps are in the single digits while in S NJ in the 40's The strongest lift should occur just north of the mix line, so if you want to take the NAM at face value it would be quite the hit for Northern NJ and the LHV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The strongest lift should occur just north of the mix line, so if you want to take the NAM at face value it would be quite the hit for Northern NJ and the LHV. Yup... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 NAM is usually the amped up model as always, what is with the humping (not hugging) of every single model run, where's the 500mb analysis Yea I kinda like that the NAM is still amped up which is it usually is towards the later part of its run... a tick south with this current 12z run would be great for the entire area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 these events can shift north at the last minute without blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The strongest lift should occur just north of the mix line, so if you want to take the NAM at face value it would be quite the hit for Northern NJ and the LHV. 12z nam is a major hit for NNJ LHV, bring a mixing issues into the city and Long Island but it's close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The strongest lift should occur just north of the mix line, so if you want to take the NAM at face value it would be quite the hit for Northern NJ and the LHV.Exactly, there will be an enhanced area of snow to the north of the mix line and south of where the sharp cutoff of precipitation is with the high to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 This is going to be a thread the needle situation. It will be nice to see LHV and points NW get in on the action, but that cold air to the north is dense and will tough to displace. The models usually have a difficult time with eroding cold air. Going to be interesting to see this evolve.Yes, I agree 100%. I don't see this storm taking this northerly a track with such a strong pool of cold air in place. The primary will likely shift South with subsequent runs as we get closer to the event. Likewise, the coastal will likely shift somewhat South and east, imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 that transient block we were supposed to have is looking kind of lame now...this almost is looking like one of those annoying SWFE SNE specials. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 these events can shift north at the last minute without blocking We have pretty decent blocking this time at least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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