SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 when was the last night you saw a snowfall distribution map that looked like that. Stuff that comes in due west through PA has a tendency to dry out once it downslopes over the mountains.... Somewhat rare but it does happen, usually in southwest flow events or overrunning storms, this is not a true SWFE really, Generally your track is more north or south of this, thats a somewhat unusual track we have on the models now. So no one is worried this might end up as a bunch of slop for NYC? The storm has jumped north 200 miles since yesterday. DC and possibly Philly is out of the game at this point and we may not be done trending. Of course, the north trend may be overdone too so today's runs will be crucial I'm not sure it can get much further north, I sort of agree with the HPC discussion that it may drop south slightly, the fast moving nature to the pattern and the fact an elongated PV is up there in Canada makes it hard to get much further north than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Somewhat rare but it does happen, usually in southwest flow events or overrunning storms, this is not a true SWFE really, Generally your track is more north or south of this, thats a somewhat unusual track we have on the models now. I'm not sure it can get much further north, I sort of agree with the HPC discussion that it may drop south slightly, the fast moving nature to the pattern and the fact an elongated PV is up there in Canada makes it hard to get much further north than this. 6z GEFS are colder than the OP . With these mid levels expect to go 10 to 1. We have warmed since yesterday and the soundings are not as favorable for snow growth. In its place is more precip so this tends to even out. 850s still minus 4 and that should get it done . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 ...MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS REACHING THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 01/1200Z... ...SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE IN THE PERIOD... FINAL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF FORECAST CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE A BAND OF HEIGHT FALLS DIPPING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY MORNING WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN THE FORECAST GIVEN THE THREAT FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION FROM THE CENTER OF THE CONUS EASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...THE QUICKER AND MORE AMPLIFIED 00Z/12Z UKMET SUPPORT SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT THAT IS MORE DEFINED AND NORTH OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. THIS RESULTS IN A NORTHWARD DISPLACED PRECIPITATION AXIS ON DAY 2. AS TIME MOVES FORWARD...TIMING DIFFERENCES PREVAIL WITH THE 00Z UKMET CONTINUING TO BE QUICKER RESULTING IN THE SURFACE WAVE BEING OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 02/1200Z. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z NAM/CMC BEING SLOWER RESULT IN TIMING ISSUES. THE MODELS DO CONTINUE TO WAFFLE AS EVIDENT BY THE 00Z GFS WHICH SHIFTED ITS LOW TRACK BY A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES ON MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF DID FOLLOW THIS MOVE NORTHWARD WHICH COULD BE THE LATEST TREND TO AT LEAST CONSIDER. A SNEAKING SUSPICION SAYS THE 12Z GUIDANCE WILL COME BACK SOUTH BUT FEEL THE FORECAST AT LEAST SHOULD CONSIDER WHAT THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF DEPICT. WILL PRESENT A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF BUT MAINTAINING THE AFOREMENTIONED BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd I hope they come further south at 12Z - NAM & GFS put us on the southern fringe now after being on the northern fringe yesterday AM.. that's the NYC area though - always need the perfect track. my thoughts, they tick slightly north or remain the same. I think the models may have been overestimating the cold air in the long-range and mishandling the pV placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 when was the last night you saw a snowfall distribution map that looked like that. Stuff that comes in due west through PA has a tendency to dry out once it downslopes over the mountains.... When the low tracks NE from the Texas Panhandle we usually don't have to worry about drying out since Gulf moisture is tapped. The only West to east snow map with a low tacking that track was February 2007. this storm is being modeled as a colder version of that since the PV isn't dropping into GL like 07 and forcing heights too far north for ice here. But a colder version of 07 being modeled would have a stipe of snow from Indiana across PA to the coast like is being forecast . Both Februaries were weakening El Ninos with a moist STJ. Models showing further south and colder version of 2007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 When the low tracks NE from the Texas Panhandle we usually don't have to worry about drying out since Gulf moisture is tapped. The only West to east snow map with a low tacking that track was February 2007. this storm is being modeled as a colder version of that since the PV isn't dropping into GL like 07 and forcing heights too far north for ice here. But a colder version of 07 being modeled would have a stipe of snow from Indiana across PA to the coast like is being forecast . Both Februaries were weakening El Ninos with a moist STJ. Models showing further south and colder version of 2007 20070212-20070215-5.63.jpg 2/8/94 may have had a similar area of snow but that was totally overrunning induced with no surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 2/8/94 may have had a similar area of snow but that was totally overrunning induced with no surface low. Yeah, this could help our friends in the northern and western areas since they will be closer to the true Arctic air. They could see the same totals as closer to us with less precip since the ratios will be higher if this track verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Yeah, this could help our friends in the northern and western areas since they will be closer to the true Arctic air. They could see the same totals as closer to us with less precip since the ratios will be higher if this track verifies. Finger crossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Just saw the srefs moved north with the surface low. Congrats NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Just saw the srefs moved north with the surface low. Congrats NYC Not bad probabilities this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Sref have over .50 for the majority of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Sref have over .50 for the majority of the area. 0c 850 line also bisects nyc. Doesnt mean anything though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Sref have over .50 for the majority of the area. I already feel more confident with this storm, unfortunately the northward trend isn't good for areas south of nyc, but whoever sets up on the north side of the r/s line is gonna cash in if these tracks verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I fully expect that after this clipper pulls out the 12z runs will have a much better sample, and start to zero in on a possible solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 0c 850 line also bisects nyc. Doesnt mean anything though. Lets hope it doesnt go any further north. Media starting to warn people about Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Lets hope it doesnt go any further north. Media starting to warn people about Monday. Well now it's def gonna miss is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 A majority of the 6z gfs individual ensemble members look great for nyc....benchmark track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 A majority of the 6z gfs individual ensemble members look great for nyc....benchmark track Haven't looked yet, where's rain/snow line set up, I'm guessing somewhere just south of NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU4Real Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Mt. Holly playing it conservative with their 1st guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Mt. Holly playing it conservative with their 1st guess. Lmao.. It's funny how those maps ALWAYS contradict their HWO and their point and click forecasts lol.. I would be conservative if I was them tho too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Mt. Holly playing it conservative with their 1st guess. That's through 7AM Monday btw. Presumably it would still be snowing in most of the area at that point baring any changes to rain down around phllly that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The 12z runs will be big. Does it hold course, slip south or slip north? Given the pattern I'd expect hold course or slight adjustment south, which still sets up great for NYC metro ... Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I think the mix line gets very close to the South shore of LI, coastal NNJ and NYC. PDII was one of the coldest setups that we've ever had and even that had some mixing at times in the coastal plain. It's almost impossible when you have that initial push of WAA before whatever secondary takes over. That's if the miller B idea is correct If you have one surface low that tracks south of the area then it should be all snow and a lot of it. While the 00z EPS members were still very split between the two ideas, the lean was towards a 00z OP solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 No wotrd frm our friendly NAM yet? suprised havent heard a peep, ususally out by now ( and we are inching towards its range) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 No wotrd frm our friendly NAM yet? suprised havent heard a peep, ususally out by now ( and we are inching towards its range) Not even close to its range. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 So far looks very similar to 6z run out through hour 51...negligible changes...maybe a hair north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 north again -- saw that one coming this AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 No wotrd frm our friendly NAM yet? suprised havent heard a peep, ususally out by now ( and we are inching towards its range) very amped and north...snow to rain for NYC south, great for that orangecounty guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 NAM coming in about 50 miles north....might be some precip issues on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 NAM coming in about 50 miles north....might be some precip issues on this one. NAM has rain NYC South!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 very amped and north...snow to rain for NYC south, great for that orangecounty guy Would not be rain on this one....ice/sleet most likely with the surface cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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