NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Can we make up an EG rule and lock it in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 EuroWX snow map w/ ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 12+ with ratiosnormally I'd say for sitting in the same spot at this time tomorrow then we're golden but under the circumstances of this week let's wait until Saturday just to be sure. Wink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Man the euro is 8-12 along i80 all the way back to Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Sign me up....LARGE part of the country gets major snowstorm if the euro is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Man the euro is 8-12 along i80 all the way back to Iowa. Looks more like 12+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 My only worry...we're in the same position as the collapses of last March and at the same time too. Hopefully we don't see a collapse at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 My only worry...we're in the same position as the collapses of last March and at the same time too. Hopefully we don't see a collapse at 12z. Seems unlikely..every model trended north tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 My only worry...we're in the same position as the collapses of last March and at the same time too. Hopefully we don't see a collapse at 12z. Exact same position at that, paranoia led me to dig back into that event a few hours ago and CMC was the only model at 00z Thursday night showing a DC hit. LOL By 12z essentially what would be tomorrow every other model followed suit. But lets not get hung up on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 My only worry...we're in the same position as the collapses of last March and at the same time too. Hopefully we don't see a collapse at 12z. Just posted the same concern on FB - those March storms that looked so good until the last 12 hours or so - and then major suppression, due to the arctic cold - if I recall correctly from several inches to nada in at least two cases... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'm more worried that the 500mb shortwave is fairly strong to our NW, this could allow the 850mb low to get pretty far NW. A worst case scenario which is def in the cards is the 0z UKMET. I think it would be good for NYC & Philly if we see a slight trend S on the 6z 12z models tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'm more worried that the 500mb shortwave is fairly strong to our NW, this could allow the 850mb low to get pretty far NW. A worst case scenario which is def in the cards is the 0z UKMET. I think it would be good for NYC & Philly if we see a slight trend S on the 6z 12z models tomorrow. There is no chance of rain though right? I would think a northward trend would be good for more snow up here, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 ...MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS REACHING THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY01/1200Z......SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE IN THE PERIOD...FINAL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWFFORECAST CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGEA BAND OF HEIGHT FALLS DIPPING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRALPLAINS ON SUNDAY MORNING WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN THE FORECASTGIVEN THE THREAT FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION FROM THE CENTER OF THECONUS EASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. AS WAS THE CASEYESTERDAY...THE QUICKER AND MORE AMPLIFIED 00Z/12Z UKMET SUPPORTSURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT THAT IS MORE DEFINED AND NORTH OF THEMODEL ENVELOPE. THIS RESULTS IN A NORTHWARD DISPLACEDPRECIPITATION AXIS ON DAY 2. AS TIME MOVES FORWARD...TIMINGDIFFERENCES PREVAIL WITH THE 00Z UKMET CONTINUING TO BE QUICKERRESULTING IN THE SURFACE WAVE BEING OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NEWENGLAND BY 02/1200Z. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z NAM/CMC BEING SLOWERRESULT IN TIMING ISSUES. THE MODELS DO CONTINUE TO WAFFLE ASEVIDENT BY THE 00Z GFS WHICH SHIFTED ITS LOW TRACK BY A COUPLEHUNDRED MILES ON MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF DIDFOLLOW THIS MOVE NORTHWARD WHICH COULD BE THE LATEST TREND TO ATLEAST CONSIDER. A SNEAKING SUSPICION SAYS THE 12Z GUIDANCE WILLCOME BACK SOUTH BUT FEEL THE FORECAST AT LEAST SHOULD CONSIDERWHAT THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF DEPICT. WILL PRESENT A BLEND OF THE 00ZGFS/ECMWF BUT MAINTAINING THE AFOREMENTIONED BELOW AVERAGECONFIDENCE. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Exact same position at that, paranoia led me to dig back into that event a few hours ago and CMC was the only model at 00z Thursday night showing a DC hit. LOL By 12z essentially what would be tomorrow every other model followed suit. But lets not get hung up on that. Ggem has had a hot hand lately, can't toss it just the same as you can't toss the Ukie. There's about a 500 mile spread between the two. For now GFS and Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Guys please look at the mid level before you yell ratios on every run . A weaker solution and further placement of the SLP and your 850 s will be colder and your ratios are better. But it comes with a price of lighter QPF A further N placement and a wetter solution has more precip but is warmer aloft and 10 to 1 apply. You can have one but you can not have both. Stop yelling ratios for every scenario it implies that you are not looking At this closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 This is why people can't jump to conclusions. Everyone was screaming suppression on the 12z and now it went well north to almost mixing. I think the system is still going to shuffle around a bit but probably end up somewhere in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Absolutely nothing wrong with what the euro is showing, I am sure many would take that in a heartbeat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 All the 4-8 and 6-10 inch events sort of blend into one, 12/5/02, 2/7/03, 2/3/96, 2/16/96, 3/2/96, 1/12/11, too hard to distinguish. 12/5/2002 stands out because it was the *start* of the amazing '03, '04, '05 run (all three winters had 60"+ @ Upton). 1/12/2011 was a huge storm out here...much better than Boxing Day in these parts...about 18" fell. The other 4 are really nondescript...only 3 stand out from 1995-96...the 11 inch one before Christmas...the January blizzard...and the 12" storm on April 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015013006/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_13.png metro snowstorm on track thats 998mb before it hits the water images don't load ? Is it time to clear your cache? low track is up http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif disco DAYS 2 AND 3......CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREATLAKES/NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST...WHILE THE SOUTHWEST TROUGH HEADS SOUTHWARD INTO MEXICO...ENERGYAND MOISTURE EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPIVALLEY WILL COMBINE WITH A SHARPLY AMPLIFYING TROUGH MOVINGSOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SATURDAY NIGHT ANDBECOME A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNDAY.THE CONSOLIDATION OF THESE SYSTEMS APPEAR TO PRODUCE AN EXPANDINGAREA OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW WITH MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITIES OFGREATER THAN 4 INCHES OF SNOW FROM EASTERN NEB TO CENTRAL IL ONDAY 2... SATURDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A LOWPROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 8 INCHES CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERNIA/NORTHERN MO INTO CENTRAL IL. AS THIS STORM DEVELOPS...MUCHCOLDER AIR WILL BUILD NOT ONLY BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A LARGE ARCTICANTICYCLONE HEADS SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT COLDERAIR WILL ALSO BLEED EASTWARD AS PRESSURES RISE OVER SOUTHEASTERNCANADA AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PRONOUNCEDUPPER CONFLUENCE ZONE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILLHELP GENERATE A INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ZONE UPON WHICH THEDEVELOPING SURFACE WILL MOVE ALONG. ON DAY 3...SUN MORNING INTOMON MORNING...A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK FOR 4-INCHES OR MORE OF SNOWIS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL IL TO EASTERN PA...WITH ASLIGHT RISK FOR 8-INCHES EXTENDING FROM IND TO WESTERN MD/PA ANDEASTERN WV.THE PREVAILING SHIFT IN THE 00Z MODELS WAS FOR A MORE NORTHERLYTRACK WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE WPCFORECAST...PARTICULARLY FROM LATE DAY 2 ONWARD. HOWEVER FORECASTCONFIDENCE WAS TEMPERED BY THE RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES THEMODELS HAVE SHOWN ALONG THE WITH DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT THEMODELS MAY REVERSE TRENDS IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS.THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.PEREIRA gfs north trend holds ATM http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Minor tick north on 06z GFS compared to 00z. Really not much of a change. For those in central and southern NJ that makes a difference with regard to the r/s line but we're still far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 81hrs Nam....breaks some hearts---warm slug that's.... if you have the heart to trust it http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2015013006/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png 999mb prog should grab into plenty of cold--imo north track idea holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Pros starting to get wet...gfs/nam both .75+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Pros starting to get wet...gfs/nam both .75+ http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif?1422615778 trouble trouble that 12" Euro snow map looks solid this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif?1422615778 trouble trouble Trouble? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Trouble? Monday morning commute----- kind of trouble...sorry chief the boss isn't going to like giving out another snow day http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/# gfs precip accum thru feb 3 at 7:00pm http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Monday morning commute----- kind of trouble...sorry chief the boss isn't going to like giving out another snow day http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/# gfs precip accum thru feb 3 at 7:00pm gfsNE_prec_precacc_114.gif http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ Oh, THAT kind of trouble. I can live with that kind of trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 EuroWX snow map w/ ratios when was the last night you saw a snowfall distribution map that looked like that. Stuff that comes in due west through PA has a tendency to dry out once it downslopes over the mountains.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 So no one is worried this might end up as a bunch of slop for NYC? The storm has jumped north 200 miles since yesterday. DC and possibly Philly is out of the game at this point and we may not be done trending. Of course, the north trend may be overdone too so today's runs will be crucial Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_f072_us.html Moisture feed all the way back into the PAC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 when was the last night you saw a snowfall distribution map that looked like that. Stuff that comes in due west through PA has a tendency to dry out once it downslopes over the mountains.... For clippers yes... But this is not! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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