UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 100 miles north ? the rain snow line is in south jersey on the 0Z .... The best snows will be just on the other side of that r/s line, jerseys about 130 miles long, so 100 miles north would put nyc and points north/west/and east in best snows... I understand for those in CNJ that means mixing possibly or going to rain but for my area to see best snows it's gotta come north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 shows me with a foot of snow and i get .5 of precip. not happeningRatios.Some folks in the north could wind up with a decent storm out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 shows me with a foot of snow and i get .5 of precip. not happening With 15-20:1 ratios, depending on banding... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 With 15-20:1 ratios, depending on banding... That is being generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Suppression is not an issue I'd be more worried about mixing but there's some protection against that. This will not be a big storm unless the entire setup changes. A foot might be the localized max if snow ratios are utilized but 4-8" more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 shows me with a foot of snow and i get .5 of precip. not happening Not sure what your looking at but the 12" marker starts at extremely dark red and yellow... No one in this area is the yellow 12" marker, this map shows roughly 10" max for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Ratios. Some folks in the north could wind up with a decent storm out of this. ive heard time and time again about ratios. we rarely get higher than 12-1 in these parts. i wouldnt count on high ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Why does this storm eerily remind me of the big March 2014 bust storms, where the PV was too strong and suppressed the storm after showing significant amounts a few days earlier.. It was long over by this point, we're about 72 hours out, those storms were lost at 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 That is being generous. Have you seen the 850s? And the surface will be between 6-15f depending on location. I would go as far to say 15:1 will be a minimum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 ive heard time and time again about ratios. we rarely get higher than 12-1 in these parts. i wouldnt count on high ratios Again go look at 850s and surface temps for this storm.. They are PERFECT for snow growth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Suppression is not an issue I'd be more worried about mixing but there's some protection against that. This will not be a big storm unless the entire setup changes. A foot might be the localized max if snow ratios are utilized but 4-8" more likely. The incoming high and low over SE Canada protect us I think from anything much further north....if not for that this could have transitioned to a somewhat classic SWFE thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickrd Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 that map is way over done That map is total on ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It was long over by this point, we're about 72 hours out, those storms were lost at 96 hours. I don't know, I recall being at about hr72 when those storms suddenly crashed and burned... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It is now looking like this model is trending north towards an earlier solution of snow to ice to rain. This is going to be another tought forecast. As the national weather service discussion said we will not know until Friday afternoon run at the earliest. I am surprised the the QPF was so low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Have you seen the 850s? And the surface will be between 6-15f depending on location. I would go as far to say 15:1 will be a minimum That would be the max. I have been burned in past by the 20 & 30 ratio formulas. Heck of a storm at 10 to 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 ive heard time and time again about ratios. we rarely get higher than 12-1 in these parts. i wouldnt count on high ratiosWell wait and see then if you won't believe it. 850 temps are pretty much perfect for snow growth, granted omega isn't too great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 That would be the max. I have been burned in past by the 20 & 30 ratio formulas. Heck of a storm at 10 to 1 I agree let's stay level and expect little, hope for the best, and we could see some surprises Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It is now looking like this model is trending north towards an earlier solution of snow to ice to rain. This is going to be another tought forecast. As the national weather service discussion said we will not know until Friday afternoon run at the earliest. I am surprised the the QPF was so low. As of now most the area is safe and north of the R/S line however this storm IS trending Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The incoming high and low over SE Canada protect us I think from anything much further north....if not for that this could have transitioned to a somewhat classic SWFE thing. Any chance those weaken a bit and allows the system to head further north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 that map is way over done I would think it was obvious i was posting it as a point of reference to the north trend on tonights models, not for the specifics of snow totals 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Any chance those weaken a bit and allows the system to head further north?Chances are very slim. The PV may relax slightly, but nothing enough to allow for mixing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It doesn't seem like it would head much further north unless there's a big phase. P.S. New England is so greedy they just had 2-3' of snow and want more SMH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It doesn't seem like it would head much further north unless there's a big phase. P.S. New England is so greedy they just had 2-3' of snow and want more SMH. We're all greedy. If we got that, which some of us did, we would want another huge hit also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Rgem through its 48hr run seems to like the northern solution of the nam and GFS as well, all three look very similar in terms of low placement and precip shield in the Midwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It doesn't seem like it would head much further north unless there's a big phase. P.S. New England is so greedy they just had 2-3' of snow and want more SMH. And if it was you it would be the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 And if it was you it would be the same Not if I had 2-3' of snow. That's a ton of snow anymore snow on top of that is a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Noted Canadian south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The GGEM was better but not there yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GGEM is a DC special. Looks similar to the 00z run it had before the 3/4/14 debacle equivalent to tonight, FWIW.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GGEM is a DC special. Looks similar to the 00z run it had before the 3/4/14 debacle equivalent to tonight, FWIW.... Assuming this includes tonight/tomorrows clipper in the 93 hour totals. Appears NYC is boredering 0.15 -0.25 with more south into cnj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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