PB GFI Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Yes ...the full monty the fly boys have been busy http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&nontasked=2015 When does better PAC obs grab this ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 WKD the flight data insights come from my friend Chris Hollis owner and webmaster of Tropical Atlantic http://tropicalatlantic.com/ we have been tracking canes for almost 15 years so I think I might have a few nice links Just wondering because you post a lot of stuff I would guess most of us never bother with. Often gives a different perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Right off the bat the GFS is more amped, energy at the 4 corners is exploding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 When does better PAC obs grab this ? no flights over land... dont need a dropsonde on your house extra balloons RAOB --- perhaps gulf flight out at 0200Z tonight so that's the focus for the ingest 12z runs tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GFS is coming in more north through hr42... Looks to be around same track as nam through 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Well north per mid Atlantic portal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Hr 48 northern precip shield about 50-100 miles north of 18z, very similar to nam so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowislife1984 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 For this to be a bomb we need a triple phaser! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Hr 54 WELL NORTH OF 18z, this is gonna be a great run... Heavy snows through the middle of the county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Dude wxbell is so damn SLOW!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Good Call doorman on the GFS showing something similar to the Nam, almost identical track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 MECS or HECS ? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015013000&fh=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 that map is way over done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 interesting we could get close to twice the amount of snow Monday then Tuesday but I doubt they will be closing down the economy again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 MECS or HECS ? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015013000&fh=72 As of right now SECS.. We need this thing about 100 miles more north and to bomb out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 that map is way over doneyou have any evidence to suggest it is?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 that map is way over done no its really not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Why does this storm eerily remind me of the big March 2014 bust storms, where the PV was too strong and suppressed the storm after showing significant amounts a few days earlier.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 We just went from being worried about suppression to possible mixing issues if this amplifies any further...shortwave still not in a well sampled region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 As of right now SECS.. We need this thing about 100 miles more north and to bomb out 100 miles north ? the rain snow line is in south jersey on the 0Z .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 that map is way over done I don't think so.. 850s are nearly perfect for snow growth, temps will be in the single digits when snow starts, ratios will easily be 15/20:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 that map is way over done What makes you think that? It's pretty similar with past runs of the gfs,ggem and euro. It just shifted 50 miles north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 you have any evidence to suggest it is?? shows me with a foot of snow and i get .5 of precip. not happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 that map is way over done[/quote IWM maps factor in ratios using Kouchera method. For as much as you can use a snowmap for guidance they are usually very accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Why does this storm eerily remind me of the big March 2014 bust storms, where the PV was too strong and suppressed the storm after showing significant amounts a few days earlier.. instead of the pv trending further south and stronger its trending further north and weaker this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Looks like 6 to 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 You know you've jumped the shark when you put any credence in the 84 hr NAM. Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 that map is way over done Your result of a busted storm. Nothing will have any credibility till after it happens. Storms still far out, but we can only use the information available to us. That wasn't going to change from Tuesday to today.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 instead of the pv trending further south and stronger its trending further north and weaker this time 500mb looks similar, I swear I've seen this before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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