UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Hr 69 snow extends from eastern PA all the way back to Eastern Nebraska, storm is still 100+ miles north of 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Hr 69 snow extends from eastern PA all the way back to Eastern Nebraska, storm is still 100+ miles north of 18z Sounds like a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Hr 72 ligt snow all of PA, Jersey and NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It's a miller B. Great run but completely worthless because it's way out of range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Sounds like a big storm. So far much improved.. It is the nam tho wayyyyy out of range, just giving the PBP fornthose that are interested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It's a miller B. Great run but completely worthless because it's way out of range. What site are you using? My runs are so slow to load Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 What site are you using? My runs are so slow to loadStorm Vista is much faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Great run, still encouraging to see this far out even if it IS the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It's a miller B. Great run but completely worthless because it's way out of range. Worthless also because it's the NAM. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I don't think we'd lose anything at all by completely ignoring the NAM from now on. It might be somewhat useful in the 12 hour range, but even that I'm doubtful of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I don't think we'd lose anything at all by completely ignoring the NAM from now on. It might be somewhat useful in the 12 hour range, but even that I'm doubtful of GFS should be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 If the NAM were not like this, it would not be good. But the fact that it is, doesn't necessarily elevate our chances. But I'm liking what I see so far tonight. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Nam is excellent in the -3 hours range....lol. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 If the NAM were not like this, it would not be good. But the fact that it is, doesn't necessarily elevate our chances. But I'm liking what I see so far tonight. WX/PT Agree, would rather see the NAM show a crazy amped solution than be suppressed...that would not be a good sign. But honestly, would not mean much either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The Nam needs to be retired seriously. I wouldn't care if it showed 5 feet of snow 24 hrs out it's a wasted model literally wasted too much drinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The Nam needs to be retired seriously. Its just about ran the life cycle of a forecast model, historically most NCEP models have made it about 20 years, the NAM is at year 21 now, it got upgraded in 05 or 06 when it became the NAM but thats a long time when talking about forecast advances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 NAM shows big hit for NYC? ... Call the governor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 You know you've jumped the shark when you put any credence in the 84 hr NAM. Is there any time the NAM isn't too amped? Come on people, be better than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Its just about ran the life cycle of a forecast model, historically most NCEP models have made it about 20 years, the NAM is at year 21 now, it got upgraded in 05 or 06 when it became the NAM but thats a long time when talking about forecast advances. Do they have anything in the works to replace it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 You know you've jumped the shark when you put any credence in the 84 hr NAM. Is there any time the NAM isn't too amped? Come on people, be better than this. The NAM is in a great spot, just off the coast, if it were over the benchmark or just SE in the MA I'd be worried but we've seen big improvements today, would not be surprised if the GFS comes NW along with the GGEM and Euro, we need to survive through the 12Z cycle tomorrow and I think we're good for something at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 You know you've jumped the shark when you put any credence in the 84 hr NAM. Is there any time the NAM isn't too amped? Come on people, be better than this. We simply posted what the nam showed... Relax...no one in here is taking it to the bank or saying its a lock, just posting what the model shows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Do they have anything in the works to replace it? No but we do. It's called the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 No but we do. It's called the RGEM Agreed 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 We simply posted what the nam showed... Relax...no one in here is taking it to the bank or saying its a lock, just posting what the model shows... Nam by the way...has a flight data ingest from today---atlantic side so go easy on bashing the old dog....upper levels tell the story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Nam by the way...has a flight data ingest from today---atlantic side so go easy on bashing the old dog....upper levels tell the story will the GFS have any flight data for the 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 will the GFS have any flight data for the 0z Yes ...the full monty the fly boys have been busy http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&nontasked=2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Yes ...the full monty You've now peaked my interest that much more for this gfs run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Yes ...the full monty Just curious. How many NCEP sites do you check out for these events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 WKD the flight data insights come from my friend Chris Hollis owner and webmaster of Tropical Atlantic http://tropicalatlantic.com/ we have been tracking canes for almost 15 years so I think I might have a few nice links my money rides here....as always http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/ens.html#us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Nam by the way...has a flight data ingest from today---atlantic side so go easy on bashing the old dog....upper levels tell the story Good intel man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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