Kaner587 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 This really to me looks to me like a 2/7/03 repeat and it's actually the #2 match at 500mb on CIPS. The pattern to me doesn't support much bigger than 4-8 or 6-10 with it Agreed but with the high ratios something like 2/7/03 (4-8inches?) would have been 6-10 or 8-12. We definitely have a qpf maximum but with ratios as high as 20:1 with tenps in teens that ceiling could vary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 This really to me looks to me like a 2/7/03 repeat and it's actually the #2 match at 500mb on CIPS. The pattern to me doesn't support much bigger than 4-8 or 6-10 with it that's a great analog for now...two more storms followed and one was PD2 10 days later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 This really to me looks to me like a 2/7/03 repeat and it's actually the #2 match at 500mb on CIPS. The pattern to me doesn't support much bigger than 4-8 or 6-10 with it The image of that storm appears to be fading; no one ever discusses it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I vividly remember the 2/7/03 storm. Was your prototypical 4-8incher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I vividly remember the 2/7/03 storm. Was your prototypical 4-8incher It was a monster near and south of Boston, a mega band formed and places saw over 12 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The image of that storm appears to be fading; no one ever discusses it... All the 4-8 and 6-10 inch events sort of blend into one, 12/5/02, 2/7/03, 2/3/96, 2/16/96, 3/2/96, 1/12/11, too hard to distinguish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 All the 4-8 and 6-10 inch events sort of blend into one, 12/5/02, 2/7/03, 2/3/96, 2/16/96, 3/2/96, 1/12/11, too hard to distinguish. The fact that you remember those dates is wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 a few other early Feb. 4-8" events... 2/3/1996...7.5" 2/2/1955...3.8" 2/3/2009...4.3" 2/6/1972...4.7" 2/6/1967...2.7" 2/7/1979...5.0" 2/7/1986...4.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 This really to me looks to me like a 2/7/03 repeat and it's actually the #2 match at 500mb on CIPS. The pattern to me doesn't support much bigger than 4-8 or 6-10 with it http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2003/07-Feb-03.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 that's a great analog for now...two more storms followed and one was PD2 10 days later... Wouldn't that be nice. Did PD2 have a -NAO I always thought it was more of a transient block or was it the PV displaced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 All the 4-8 and 6-10 inch events sort of blend into one, 12/5/02, 2/7/03, 2/3/96, 2/16/96, 3/2/96, 1/12/11, too hard to distinguish. 1/12/11 was the biggest storm of the very snowy 10-11 Winter here in Dobbs Ferry....14.5" fell, making it slightly bigger than both Boxing Day and the 1/27 thundersleet system. New England got absolutely buried, and Westchester was on the edge of the band that nuked Connecticut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 All the 4-8 and 6-10 inch events sort of blend into one, 12/5/02, 2/7/03, 2/3/96, 2/16/96, 3/2/96, 1/12/11, too hard to distinguish. 16" here on 1/12/11. Easy enough for me to remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 21z sref mean is pretty amped @ 87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coltsfan1217 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Bernie Rayno at Accuweather seems to think this storm has opportunity to come up the coast and bomb out if the trough digs deeper and goes negative. Don't know if that will happen, but if it did, NE would get pounded again, and the DC-NY would get a nice hit too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 1/12/11 was the biggest storm of the very snowy 10-11 Winter here in Dobbs Ferry....14.5" fell, making it slightly bigger than both Boxing Day and the 1/27 thundersleet system. New England got absolutely buried, and Westchester was on the edge of the band that nuked Connecticut. Right up there with Boxing Day that epic winter... Had 24" in Ridgefield, 12 of which fell in 3.5 hrs... Had 5/hr (heaviest synoptic snow I've ever seen) in that nuke of a band you reference. Amazing storm. Top 5 all time for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 1/12/11 was a decent storm in Nassau County but nothing like what Suffolk County and SNE received. I had maybe 9 or 10" from that-the heavy banding shut the snow off west of the Sagtikos for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 DGEX for entertainment purposes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 00z nam is more amped, way out of range but good to see, really tightens the energy at the 4 corners, 18z energy was much less organised that early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 heavy heavy snow with temperatures in the single digits. sure, why not? DGEX for entertainment purposes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Pv is gonna be further north on this run which is what we need Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 OT, but NESIS on 1/12/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Bernie Rayno at Accuweather seems to think this storm has opportunity to come up the coast and bomb out if the trough digs deeper and goes negative. Don't know if that will happen, but if it did, NE would get pounded again, and the DC-NY would get a nice hit too. That's what I was asking before. Just need the trough to sharpen so that more energy from the northern stream phases. If it transfers early enough south of Delmarva and the trough goes negative I think we have a Hecs. won't take much from the looks of things at the 300mb level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 OT, but NESIS on 1/12/11 Was this the storm that had an epic deform band over CT, I remember someone on the weather channel mentioning how they never saw "dark blue" radar show up before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Distinct difference in the 00z nam compared to 18z.. Through hr 39 heavy snow in northern Kansas and southern Nebraska, 18z had strung out rain showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Was this the storm that had an epic deform band over CT, I remember someone on the weather channel mentioning how they never saw "dark blue" radar show up before. Indeed, heaviest synoptic snow I've ever seen. That band was at least 5"/hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Hr 48 northern precip shield is much more organised, heavy snow for northern IL, storm is already 100+ miles north of 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/DATA/RT/na-ir4-flash.html TexMex speaks for itself...ya think??? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/pcpn-na.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 18z 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Hr 54 massive northern precip Shield, all snow, extends all the way north as far as southern Michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Hr 63 light snow starts in western PA and South western NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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