IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Yes a lot slower this run...we need it to occurred faster for something more...still verbatim solid hit. Just want consistency at this point I was just looking at the 12z EPS individuals. A few of them are very strong miller B's and JMA esque. member 46 tracks a surface low to Ohio and then Pitt which then transfers to the NJ coast. At the time of the transfer the low is at 986mb and ends up 973mb near Cape Cod. Ends up producing a foot plus from the Plains all the way to Maine. There are 6-7 other members that produce a similar outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 ... Has the makings of a heart breaker for many people North of the city. Thanks for the heads up. If you can prevent even one toaster bath, it was all worth while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I was just looking at the 12z EPS individuals. A few of them are very strong miller B's and JMA esque. member 46 tracks a surface low to Ohio and then Pitt which then transfers to the NJ coast. At the time of the transfer the low is at 986mb and ends up 973mb near Cape Cod. Ends up producing a foot plus from the Plains all the way to Maine. There are 6-7 other members that produce a similar outcome. Would assume those members are ejecting the SW energy or is the strong solution the result of the Northern Stream energy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 4-6" immediate NYC area. Sharp cut off north of I-78. 6-8" for Central and Southern NJ. LHV <1". That low tracks really far south. Not really much of anything in the N & W burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith O Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I wouldn't be shocked if some areas received 12"+ but I think that falls in a relatively narrow band to the south of the NYC area. Has the makings of a heart breaker for many people North of the city. Seems every storm for the last 5 years has been higher amont S and E and lesser N and W. Getting used to the heartbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Anyone know what a "Cat 8 Snowfall" is? Are they just trying to see who is paying attention? I should post that on social media http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...980S LOW SPINNING NEAR NOVA SCOTIA WILL KEEP GUSTY NW FLOW LOCKED INON SAT...PRODUCING WIND CHILLS MAINLY AOB ZERO FOR MOST OF THE DAY.AS WINDS SLACKEN LATE...WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE SINGLEDIGITS. H85 WINDS IN THE GFS ARE AROUND 55-60KT AT 12Z SAT...SOTHERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVY EARLY WITH GUSTS IN THE 45-50MPH RANGE. SUBSIDENCE ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THE SYS SHOULD AID IN THEGUST POTENTIAL...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME CLEARING OUT THE SKIES.WEAK HI PRES RIDGE SAT NGT SO MUCH LIGHTER WINDS INTO SUN.MODELS LINING UP WITH THE NEXT SYS FOR SUN NGT AND MON. THE 12Z GFSAND ECMWF ARE VIRTUALLY THE SAME WRT THE TRACK AND INTENSITY. AT 18ZMON THE LOW CENTERS WERE APPROXIMATELY 60 MILES APART AND ABOUT 130MILES S OF THE BENCHMARK. MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERECLUSTERED ON THIS SOLN.EXTENSIVE AREA OF MID LVL MOISTURE WITH THE SYS...SO WITH HIGH SLR/SAT LEAST LGT-MDT ACCUMS POSSIBLE. BASED ON THE PROGRESSIVENATURE...IT LOOKS LIKE A 4-8 INCH POTENTIAL ATTM. THIS OF COURSE CANCHANGE...IN FACT A SRN TRACK COULD LEAVE THE CWA WITH JUST FLURRIES.AS AN ASIDE...THE 12Z MEX HAS CAT 8 SNOWFALL FOR ALL SITES.HI PRES MON NGT AND TUE. SUNNY ON TUE AS A RESULT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Looking at this on my phone so it's hard to see but it looks like the southern portion of the LHV is around 6 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Anyone know what a "Cat 8 Snowfall" is? Are they just trying to see who is paying attention? I should post that on social media http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Lol wtf? ..I'm telling you- you'll go into work tomorrow and people will be talking about the category 8 snownado for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Anyone know what a "Cat 8 Snowfall" is? Are they just trying to see who is paying attention? I should post that on social media http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/tpb/mdltpb2010-01.pdf Snow Amount Categories 0 = no snow or a trace expected; 1 = > a trace to < 2 inches expected; 2 = 2 to < 4 inches; 4 = 4 to < 6 inches; 6 = 6 to < 8 inches; 8 = ≥ 8 inches. I believe the MOS is calculating a very high snow ratio for the the total precip since the MOS temps are so cold. NEW YORK CITY-KENNEDY KJFK GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 1/29/2015 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 FRI 30| SAT 31| SUN 01| MON 02| TUE 03| WED 04| THU 05|FRI CLIMO N/X 29 37| 17 28| 18 36| 18 22| 8 22| 18 40| 26 33| 16 25 39 TMP 33 30| 18 25| 22 31| 20 18| 10 19| 23 36| 27 28| 18 DPT 29 12| 4 2| 14 11| 9 3| -4 0| 15 26| 14 8| 2 CLD OV OV| CL CL| PC OV| OV OV| CL CL| CL PC| OV PC| CL WND 12 23| 26 25| 17 12| 16 19| 18 9| 10 14| 20 24| 18 P12 95 50| 0 4| 0 9| 88 66| 5 17| 7 21| 23 31| 26 23 20 P24 95| 4| 9| 88| 17| 21| 34| 33 Q12 2 1| 0 0| 0 0| 1 3| 0 0| 0 0| | Q24 2| 0| 0| 3| 0| 0| | T12 0 1| 1 0| 1 0| 1 4| 1 1| 1 1| 2 1| 1 T24 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 PZP 18 3| 4 0| 4 3| 3 0| 0 2| 4 3| 0 8| 0 PSN 54 67| 96 99| 96 96| 89 87| 86 76| 75 27| 12 43| 67 PRS 24 22| 0 0| 0 0| 0 1| 0 1| 0 17| 14 5| 3 TYP S S| S S| S S| S S| S S| S RS| R S| S SNW 1| 0| 0| 8| 0| 0| | Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Lol wtf? ..I'm telling you- you'll go into work tomorrow and people will be talking about the category 8 snownado for Monday. Yea like seriously!!! It's probably 200 inches of snow with 150 mph winds and 35 feet snow drifts... Sorry had to! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Where is weathergun he is very good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml B.M. track per OPC blue is 1020mb ridge line old school track guide (buffer zone) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Thanks for explaining Blue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 FYI isentropic ratios will be 12-15:1 so 0.4-0.5 is more like 5-8 It's 15 to 1. There's a chance it's 20 in spots. It will b great in the snow growth areas . .5 is 8 If u get lucky it could b 10. We had 20 to 1 last year with an arctic wave. It's not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Gefs continue to be more amped then op...look great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 It's 15 to 1. There's a chance it's 20 in spots. It will b great in the snow growth areas . .5 is 8 If u get lucky it could b 10. We had 20 to 1 last year with an arctic wave. It's not impossible. That was champagne powder. NYC 1-21-14 31 11 21 -11 44 0 0.46 11.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 That was champagne powder. NYC 1-21-14 31 11 21 -11 44 0 0.46 11.0 Check out some the soundings. Look outstanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Can someone post ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Can someone post ensembles .5-.75 for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Anyone know what a "Cat 8 Snowfall" is? Are they just trying to see who is paying attention? I should post that on social media http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Just one statistical forecast model predicting 8 inches or more of snow that is 108 hours away. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 18z GEFS mean is 0.50" plus for all. NYC is very close to 0.75". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Pretty much every model today is showing a great solution. Can't ask for more at this point. Beautiful setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Pretty much every model today is showing a great solution. Can't ask for more at this point. Beautiful setup http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php#haz_discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Anyone thought of making a thread for Weds storm yet? Looking juicy as of now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 These systems are less of a gamble than what we saw a few days ago. Of course things will continue to change so nothing's a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seth.P Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 These systems are less of a gamble than what we saw a few days ago. Of course things will continue to change so nothing's a lock. Less of a gamble, but seemingly less of a chance of being an epic storm; no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Less of a gamble, but seemingly less of a chance of being an epic storm; no?this storm was never an epic storm but a nice quick shot at 3-6 4-8 depending on where you are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Doesn't this have more of a chance to phase and deepen further if we can get the trough to go at least neutral with a stronger ridge out west? Seems to me this one has potential for something a lot bigger especially w a blocking high and confluence to the east? Or am I being unrealistic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Doesn't this have more of a chance to phase and deepen further if we can get the trough to go at least neutral with a stronger ridge out west? Seems to me this one has potential for something a lot bigger especially w a blocking high and confluence to the east? Or am I being unrealistic? This really to me looks to me like a 2/7/03 repeat and it's actually the #2 match at 500mb on CIPS. The pattern to me doesn't support much bigger than 4-8 or 6-10 with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seth.P Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 What are the winds going to be like for this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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