IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The message that the NWS released today is meant for public view. Not just snow weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The message that the NWS released today is meant for public view. Not just snow weenies.I did not mean the HWO, rather, I was referring to AFD and other discussions which is available. Yes they're available, but if someone reads them who doesn't understand the science, it creates issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 If only they had chosen to play the Super Bowl in New Jersey this year instead of last year things could have been very interesting. The moderate snow looks to be arriving just in time for the end of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The teleconnections look great for snow so the amounts should come down to how fast the trough goes neutral to negative tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 18z NAM at 84 hrs (i know) was a bit less amped with the main shortwave but looks to phase in more of the baja low energy...extrapolated I think it would be a pretty good solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The teleconnections look great for snow so the amounts should come down to how fast the trough goes neutral to negative tilt. ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_5.png Best the Atlantic looked all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 If only they had chosen to play the Super Bowl in New Jersey this year instead of last year things could have been very interesting. The moderate snow looks to be arriving just in time for the end of the game. Last year we ended up with 6-8 of wet snow the Monday after super Sunday. My favorite storm from last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I did not mean the HWO, rather, I was referring to AFD and other discussions which is available. Yes they're available, but if someone reads them who doesn't understand the science, it creates issues. This is now getting off topic, but- These HWO's and similar products were designed in a time way before social media. They were for the 'public' but you and I know the only people that looked at them were us nerds, mets, and emergency managers. I think you are going to continue to see NWS work with social scientist to change the way they communicate and distribute their weather messages. They are doing this after Sandy- (the whole "hybrid" controversy along with creating storm surge forecasts) and they will be doing it again after the uncertainty of the 30 inch NYC bust was not properly communicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Last year we ended up with 6-8 of wet snow the Monday after super Sunday. My favorite storm from last year. Yeah, but this has a better chance of occuring during game time. Last year was one of the most pleasant days of the entire Winter. WAA precip historically arrives faster than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Careful with the HWO / AFD wishes. It sounds like you are advocating that information be withheld from us and we go back to getting little snippets like, "don't forget your galoshes". I am tired of dumbing things down for everyone. If someone is going to read an AFD and hurt themselves, then let them; maybe it will keep them from voting for grandstanding politicians who shut down underground transit systems because of above ground snow. 9" here last February 3rd. Maybe the start of a nice tradition. The morning after the super bowl 2014: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Careful with the HWO / AFD wishes. It sounds like you are advocating that information be withheld from us and we go back to getting little snippets like, "don't forget your galoshes". I am tired of dumbing things down for everyone. If someone is going to read an AFD and hurt themselves, then let them; maybe it will keep them from voting for grandstanding politicians who shut down underground transit systems because of above ground snow. 9" here last February 3rd. Maybe the start of a nice tradition. The morning after the super bowl 2014: Well said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Vort a little weak this run...prob be less qpf. Light snow 06z monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West of Town Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 This was actually my favorite storm here (Hill above MMU) last year, even though we a got a bit less than the February 13th storm. If I recall correctly, it was around 50 the Saturday and Sunday before, and we may be have been forecast for only 3"-6". Generally (12/30/2000 notwithstanding), Morris County is not quite the bullseye, but we were quite close to it then, and had a general 10"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Turns out very Euro like...nice solid hit.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 This was actually my favorite storm here (Hill above MMU) last year, even though we a got a bit less than the February 13th storm. If I recall correctly, it was around 50 the Saturday and Sunday before, and we may be have been forecast for only 3"-6". Generally (12/30/2000 notwithstanding), Morris County is not quite the bullseye, but we were quite close to it then, and had a general 10"+. Forecasts were playing catch up all weekend. Many were caught off guard around here maybe b/c of the Superbowl. Euro had the right solution several runs out if I recall correctly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 4-6" immediate NYC area. Sharp cut off north of I-78. 6-8" for Central and Southern NJ. LHV <1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 992 outside the benchmark Qpf .5 to nyc .75 brushes Monmouth and ocean counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowislife1984 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Forecasts were playing catch up all weekend. Many were caught off guard around here maybe b/c of the Superbowl. Euro had the right solution several runs out if I recall correctlyit was the model nam that showed it that Friday and every other model caught it after. Beautiful storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West of Town Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Forecasts were playing catch up all weekend. Many were caught off guard around here maybe b/c of the Superbowl. Euro had the right solution several runs out if I recall correctly Most likely, and the mild weather probably lulled people in. My kids are learning the value between wet snow (fun! snowmen! too heavy to shovel!) and powder (can't make snowmen! fun to shovel! snow angels!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 If we can get a bit more of that baja energy to eject and phase in, we're looking at a MECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 FYI isentropic ratios will be 12-15:1 so 0.4-0.5 is more like 5-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West of Town Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 If we can get a bit more of that baja energy to eject and phase in, we're looking at a MECS. If that actually happens, there goes the first test of people ignoring forecasts because of the bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 This is a nice track for Monmouth and ocean counties...verbatim 10+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Per weathergun other forum- "12z GFS Bufkit showed ratios on Monday as 25-30 to 1, using the max temp technique. Cobbs11 technique suggest 15-20 to 1, with the lack of omega." This is gonna be some high ratio snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Two things on the GFS. It's still not ejecting much if any of the energy in the southwest. We can still get away with that if the phase of the northern stream is faster. On this run it was still delayed. Hence a relatively weak surface low initially that deepens offshore once the trailing energy arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 FYI isentropic ratios will be 12-15:1 so 0.4-0.5 is more like 5-8 I'm using the SV maps which can be on the conservative side but then again it's always good to be conservative with accumulations, especially for a day 4 system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Two things on the GFS. It's still not ejecting much if any of the energy in the southwest. We can still get away with that if the phase of the northern stream is faster. On this run it was still delayed. Hence a relatively weak surface low initially that deepens offshore once the trailing energy arrives. Yes a lot slower this run...we need it to occurred faster for something more...still verbatim solid hit. Just want consistency at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Per weathergun other forum- "12z GFS Bufkit showed ratios on Monday as 25-30 to 1, using the max temp technique. Cobbs11 technique suggest 15-20 to 1, with the lack of omega." This is gonna be some high ratio snow I wouldn't be shocked if some areas received 12"+ but I think that falls in a relatively narrow band to the south of the NYC area. Has the makings of a heart breaker for many people North of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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