USCG RS Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Not for nothing, that look on the Euro is amazing post 144 hrs. It'll change many times I'm sure, but the pattern is beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 That is 12 + inches of snow - if that verifies it is NYC's 37th storm above 12 inches DM - who has been the miser all year liked 8 to 12 out of the box , so if`s inside the envelope and a great call if it holds . We saw these set up last year where 15 to 1 were common w arctic waves with similar air masses . Would be great to add to the pack . IT WILL ONLY INCREASE OUR CHANCES TO GET KNYC BELOW 0 TUES AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 A slightly faster neutral to negative tilt in later runs and closer to the coast low could boost the QPF with those great ratios. By the way, did you check out the great ratios the other day at Islip esp on front end. 26 28 23 26 -4 39 0 0.19 7.5 27 24 17 21 -10 44 0 1.44 17.4 ( I ASSUME THIS ) ? This air mass is colder , but I like to cap the coast at 15 to 1 when looking at this . If it goes over it`s a bonus . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 12+ storms since 1995 (offhand so someone correct me if wrong) Jan 1996 Dec 2000 Feb 2003 Dec 2003 Jan 2005 Feb 2006 Feb 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2013* (close enough) Jan 2014 (close enough) Feb 2014 a couple of other close ones include; Jan 2015 Jan 2014 Jan 2011 (11th?) Feb 2010 (non snowicane) Dec 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Not for nothing, that look on the Euro is amazing post 144 hrs. It'll change many times I'm sure, but the pattern is beautiful. The thing that annoys me verbatim on the Euro for the Miller A is that their's a 1004 MB LP in Canada at hr 144. That can definitely change for the better and the EPS are jumping all over it. This storm is definitely changing for the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Why are people discussing ratios already when every single run of every single model has shown something different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 For the 4 main models there is at least some agreement between GEFS/GFS, gem ensembles, euro op and ukie for a moderate (4+) event for nyc south. That's pretty good agreement at this stage. In terms of finer details I mean ya a ton can change but I wouldn't say every model is different because they really aren't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I love this types of storms because even one or two tenths of inch could mean an additional 2-4 inches.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 There has however been a ton of run to run changes within in each model I do agree with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Woof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Woof Looks overdone but alas, it's Aunt JMAima. Also not an ideal track - can you show 108? Hints of a secondary at 96, but I'd imagine a fair bit of mixing. But, it's the JMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Woof if only it wasnt the JMA - but still not bad to look at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Agreement? No they have changed every run...euro went from nothing to hit...ggem from hit to nothing...gfs from rain to nothing to hit to less of a hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 if only it wasnt the JMA - but still not bad to look at I only get 24hr intervals on my source but it's a massive miller B. Huge over running and then a secondary. i think a clown map would be spitting out 40" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Agreement? No they have changed every run...euro went from nothing to hit...ggem from hit to nothing...gfs from rain to nothing to hit to less of a hit Read the second post I made....we have intra model agreement currently but high run to run variability within each model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The JMA takes all of the energy in the southwest and ejects it Eastard just as the northern stream is dropping down. No other model does this but it's fun to look at. FWIW the 12z Euro was a bit more progressive in the Southwest and has a known bias for hanging back too much energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 way out of range but 15z SREFs look pretty amped up at the end of their run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Ggem ensembles are further north then the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Euro eps matches the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Ggem ensembles are further north then the op Good sign... i like the trends for today.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Anyone have the Euro ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Euro eps matches the op Above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Agreement? No they have changed every run...euro went from nothing to hit...ggem from hit to nothing...gfs from rain to nothing to hit to less of a hit That was 24 hours ago. Big difference with verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 312 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015 CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-301100- NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX- NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN- SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC- EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX- EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND- NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX- RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 312 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WILL BECOME LIKELY BY LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FROM ONE HALF INCH UP TO ONE INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRIDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE SNOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND BEGINS TO TAPER OFF AND END FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A TOTAL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH INTERIOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS WARNING CRITERIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Above doh i missed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Wes Junker's (Usedtobe here) provides a lot of invaluable information. It can be found at: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/snowfcst/snow.pdf wow thanks. The ultimte guide. Ill have to book mark for later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY312 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-301100-NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-312 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERNCONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK..DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.LIGHT SNOW WILL BECOME LIKELY BY LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGHTHE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FROM ONE HALF INCH UP TO ONE INCH OFSNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRIDAYMORNING RUSH HOUR WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE SNOW..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND BEGINS TO TAPEROFF AND END FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE MORNING INTO FRIDAYAFTERNOON. A TOTAL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE WITH THEHIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH INTERIORSOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT ANDMONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM ARESTILL UNCERTAIN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 6 INCHES OR MORE OFSNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.&&THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIALWIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNINGCRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES INEFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWSWARNING CRITERIA. I hope nobody posts this on Facebook.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I hope nobody posts this on Facebook....There's nothing wrong with outlining a potential snowstorm, no need to downplay everything now because they busted on a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 There's nothing wrong with outlining a potential snowstorm, no need to downplay everything now because they busted on a storm. not worried about downplaying, but with the inconsistency of the models, making the public aware that a storm is a possibility is really all they need to know. When I was in school, it was a rule that anything more than 3 days amounts were not to be discussed. A forecast discussion like that really needs to stay out of the public eye and in the hands of those who know what it really means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 not worried about downplaying, but with the inconsistency of the models, making the public aware that a storm is a possibility is really all they need to know. When I was in school, it was a rule that anything more than 3 days amounts were not to be discussed. A forecast discussion like that really needs to stay out of the public eye and in the hands of those who know what it really means.Yes but everyone now has access to all information. It's the same thing as when I go to pull a rescue and someone tries telling me what to do because they did ten minutes of research on the Internet and they think they know better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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