tdp146 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 On SV I see a stripe of 6-8" over North Central NJ but it's probably a bit more than that given how cold temps will be. 850mb temps are -12C to -16C from CNJ North. 0.50"+ LE up to Sussex. Perhaps 15:1 ratios, maybe even a bit higher? Isnt that about the perfect temp at 850mb for best snow growth? Or is the best snow growth region not at the 850mb level? Always interested exactly how ratios are calculated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Eurowx snow maps shows 9-11" for all of NYC and most of NJ except for Sussex county -- 6-8" there...think this is legit based on very cold upper levels/surface and the resulting high ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The mid-level jet stays mostly to our South and then briefly bumps north which allowed the heavier precip to jump north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I guess u guys are KU hunting...I will take the 6-10 and temps in the teens id take 3-5" after this past debacle - agree with you - dont need a KU event - too much stress leading up to those - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Isnt that about the perfect temp at 850mb for best snow growth? Or is the best snow growth region not at the 850mb level? Always interested exactly how ratios are calculated. Yeah I don't know the exact numbers but I beleive that's pretty close to optimal. There are other factors involved. Dew points are in the teens north of I-80. There is definitly going to be dry air to fight on the North end and if any type of deformation band sets up over CNJ you might see a very sharp cutoff North of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 Euro looks like another one at 144 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 THE DM STORM 850s MINUS 15 BL 8 -10 A TICK AWAY FROM A GREAT STORM . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Isnt that about the perfect temp at 850mb for best snow growth? Or is the best snow growth region not at the 850mb level? Always interested exactly how ratios are calculated. Wes Junker's (Usedtobe here) provides a lot of invaluable information. It can be found at: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/snowfcst/snow.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Yeah I don't know the exact numbers but I beleive that's pretty close to optimal. There are other factors involved. Dew points are in the teens north of I-80. There is definitly going to be dry air to fight on the North end and if any type of deformation band sets up over CNJ you might see a very sharp cutoff North of there. Nothing wrong with 4-6 inches. Can't be in the eye of the tiger everytime. Congrats central & south New Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Big storm signal on euro 144-168 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Is this with the assumption of 10:1 ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I guess u guys are KU hunting...I will take the 6-10 and temps in the teens AMEN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Isnt that about the perfect temp at 850mb for best snow growth? Or is the best snow growth region not at the 850mb level? Always interested exactly how ratios are calculated. For the most part the most important level is about h7 and ideal temps for snow growth is -10C or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Is this with the assumption of 10:1 ratios? no, this accounts for ratios using their own algorithm. Not sure how accurate it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I think that map includes the clipper too. (Look at Maine's totals) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I think that map includes the clipper too. (Look at Maine's totals) It does include clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I think that map includes the clipper too. (Look at Maine's totals) Ah, you are right. Map should still be accurate for southern areas. North-Central NJ and north may have to shave an inch or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 It does include clipper Yes but the clipper on the EURO is an inch or 2 at best. Still 5-8 region wide if you minus the clipper.... in any event it is still a MAJOR improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 THE DM STORM 850s MINUS 15 BL 8 -10 A TICK AWAY FROM A GREAT STORM . Reminds me of some of last winters high ratio snows on the edge of the Arctic fronts. The GFS MOS Has NYC near 10 the next morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Going to be interesting to see what wording Upton uses in their zones forecast this afternoon after dropping the "moderate accumulation" from their forecast earlier Also seems kind of weird that the Euro and GEFS amped up while the previous amped up GGEM slides totally south of us - anyone have an explanation for that ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Reminds me of some of last winters high ratio snows on the edge of the Arctic fronts. The GFS MOS Has NYC near 10 the next morning. Arctic waves do favor the coast . But I still think .5 can get far back W and at 15 to 1 , I don't think many miss this . But I like .75 at 15 to 1 . Think that's a fair blend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Going to be interesting to see what wording Upton uses in their zones forecast this afternoon after dropping the "moderate accumulation" from their forecast earlier Also seems kind of weird that the Euro and GEFS amped up while the previous amped up GGEM slides totally south of us - anyone have an explanation for that ? It's the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 no, this accounts for ratios using their own algorithm. Not sure how accurate it is. It was very accurate for the November storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Euro LE is 0.50-0.75" over most of the area so if it's spitting out say 12" you would have needed 1.2" liquid at 10:1. We're getting about half that. My guess is that snow map has at least 15:1 ratios if not higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Arctic waves do favor the coast . But I still think .5 can get far back W and at 15 to 1 , I don't think many miss this . But I like .75 at 15 to 1 . Think that's a fair blend A slightly faster neutral to negative tilt in later runs and closer to the coast low could boost the QPF with those great ratios. By the way, did you check out the great ratios the other day at Islip esp on front end. 26 28 23 26 -4 39 0 0.19 7.5 27 24 17 21 -10 44 0 1.44 17.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Arctic waves do favor the coast . But I still think .5 can get far back W and at 15 to 1 , I don't think many miss this . But I like .75 at 15 to 1 . Think that's a fair blend That is 12 + inches of snow - if that verifies it is NYC's 37th storm above 12 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 That is 12 + inches of snow - if that verifies it is NYC's 37th storm above 12 inches It's 11.25", but who's counting (wait, I'm counting) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 That is 12 + inches of snow - if that verifies it is NYC's 37th storm above 12 inches I bet a good chunk of those occurred post 1995 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Reminds me of some of last winters high ratio snows on the edge of the Arctic fronts. The GFS MOS Has NYC near 10 the next morning. Last January...think we got 10 here and temps were in the single digits and snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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