Brian5671 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Defintely good to see the Ensembles a bit further north...that's the better tool at this point versus living and dying by the op run 4+ days out. Euro and Ensembles up next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I'm not making a forecast -- just saying to be cognizant that the12z GFS verbatim is deceivingly robust for our area, in terms of qpf, based on this setup and low track... Surface track aside, the 500 mb evolution and jet structure do not scream "crushed in the confluence" ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I would be hesitant to say this will be suppressed based on the 12z GFS ensembles being more amped than the OP and 12z UKMET showing a benchmark track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Surface track aside, the 500 mb evolution and jet structure do not scream "crushed in the confluence" ... Yeah it really does not, the ultimate thing that could screw this may be the SW energy not tapping in enough, not really the PV, the Euro wanted no part of that SW energy but that may be due to its bias more than anything else, this next run and the one after start to get close enough in the Euro usually loses that error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Early in the game on the Euro but it looks like the PV is already a tick North of 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The Euro already looks like it will be more amped...more interaction with northern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The Euro already looks like it will be more amped...more interaction with northern stream Yeah the energy over the SW is opening up quicker and the initial SW looks further southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 More seperation between the northern stream energy and the PV which is allowing it to dive further southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 More seperation between the northern stream energy and the PV which is allowing it to dive further southwest. Northern stream is definitely diving in more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The precip over the Ohio Valley is already a hundred miles or more north of 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The precip over the Ohio Valley is already a hundred miles or more north of 00z Lol might be more amped then gfs...going to be a solid hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 It's trying to catch the energy over Mexico, that would allow it to slow down and tug the jet orientation south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Light snow in the area after the game..low in western ky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Light snow in the area after the game..low in western ky Did the Pats win? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Steady snow nyc and mod snow snj 06z monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Solid hit, especially for southern areas, but still lacking the trailing energy that would really cause this to blow up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Monday morning heavy snow to nyc... 1000 off delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 4-8 for the area...8-10 for north central nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Temps in the teens during the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 It was a good run. The trailing energy over Canada was nowhere to be found this run. And it was never able to completely interact with the energy over the southwest. A step in the right direction at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 4-8 for the area...8-10 for north central nj Between EURO, GFS, UKIE, GEFS good trends today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 It was a decent run. The trailing energy over Canada was nowhere to be found this run. And it was never able to completely interact with the energy over the southwest. A step in the right direction at least. It's better then the gfs......you get 4-8...6-10 just south of nyc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 HUGE step in right direction with room for improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I guess u guys are KU hunting...I will take the 6-10 and temps in the teens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 4-8 for the area...8-10 for north central nj On SV I see a stripe of 6-8" over North Central NJ but it's probably a bit more than that given how cold temps will be. 850mb temps are -12C to -16C from CNJ North. 0.50"+ LE up to Sussex. Perhaps 15:1 ratios, maybe even a bit higher? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 On SV I see a stripe of 6-8" over North Central NJ but it's probably a bit more than that given how cold temps will be. 850mb temps are -12C to -16C from CNJ North. 0.50"+ LE up to Sussex. Perhaps 15:1 ratios, maybe even a bit higher? Yeah temps in the teens would make for nice ratios...it's a beautiful run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 It's better then the gfs......you get 4-8...6-10 just south of nyc. I will certainly take it but I would much rather not be on the northern fringe of the heavier precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Yeah temps in the teens would make for nice ratios...it's a beautiful run It's not so much surface temperatures, it's all about the snow growth region. Someone on here has posted a table before on what temps are optimal for the best dendrite growth. I think 850's here might even be a bit too cold on that chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I will certainly take it but I would much rather not be on the northern fringe of the heavier precip.[/quot It's a night and day difference from 0z, good trends today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Everyone goes below zero per the Euro Tuesday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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