BoulderWX Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The models have yet to show much run to run consistency and it's becoming apparent that this area will once again be on the edge of significant precip. Both reasons to be conservative. 100% agree, also remember how these systems generally trend.. I'm not biting on anything more than 2-4 for the city - that doesnt mean I'm saying it wont happen but will definitely need to see more consistency in guidance - my thoughts remain the same post 12Z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 00z 12z Just for reference, this storm has gone south since 00z last night, let's hope this isn't a trend but a wobble 4 days out... Hopefully GGEM and rgem stay the course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The GGEM is looking flatter through 72hrs. Still early though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Off topic but the H5 depiction on the 12z GFS for the middle of next week screams major storm. This is the period that the EPS members continue to love. The PV stayed completely in tact so nothing was able to phase with that massive piece of energy sitting over TX. Was thinking the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The PV is much more intact this run, looks like it will cave to the Euro/GFS idea of generally weak sauce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 For anyone north of I-80, taking the 12z GFS verbatim, we're going to want to be very cautious with qpf amounts. While it shows a 2-4" type event for those areas, I'd be much more inclined to expect nothing more than a dusting... Forecasted highs on LI are in the low 20's, on Monday, which indicates there will be plenty of very cold and dry air in the metro area, and consequently a very sharp cutoff in amounts just to the north of the best dynamics/lift. We need the low to come much further north to be confident in at least a moderate hit for most of our area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 At hr 84 the northern edge of moisture is barely up to the Ohio Valley. The 00z run for the same period was near the Canadian border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The GFS came in a nose better than I thought it would for sure, I think we can hold some hope in seasonal trends to save us, thus far this winter, the PV has tended not to drop as far south as modeled and the Atlantic ridge has been stronger, if either of those 2 come to fruition again we may be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 For anyone north if I-80, taking the 12z GFS verbatim, we're going to want to be very cautious with qpf amounts. While it shows a 2-4" type event for those areas, I'd be much more inclined to expect nothing more than a dusting... Forecasted highs on LI are in the low 20's, on Monday, which indicates there will be plenty of very cold and dry air in the metro area, and consequently a very sharp cutoff in amounts just to the north of the best dynamics/lift. Most of which I'm betting will fall as virga with that amount of cold dry air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The 12z GGEM is well south and east. Barely any measureable precip north of CNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 For anyone north if I-80, taking the 12z GFS verbatim, we're going to want to be very cautious with qpf amounts. While it shows a 2-4" type event for those areas, I'd be much more inclined to expect nothing more than a dusting... Forecasted highs on LI are in the low 20's, on Monday, which indicates there will be plenty of very cold and dry air in the metro area, and consequently a very sharp cutoff in amounts just to the north of the best dynamics/lift. I still think it's too far out to really "expect" anything. And highs in the low 20s on Monday is irrelevant, IMO - there have been plenty of storms (including many last winter) with thermal profiles as cold - or colder - than modeled here. Agree about the sharp northern cutoff, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The NavGEM is almost more amped than the GFS, the NavGEM has tended to be storm happy this winter so far though compared to previous years so not sure how much stock we can put in what it thinks relative to usual bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The PV was stronger and further southeast which lowered heights over the southeast and the system had no choice but escape to the East. One more shift like that and DC will be out of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The 12z GGEM is well south and east. Barely any measureable precip north of CNJ. The writing is on the wall for this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The GGEM has been different since its upgrade, used to be able to know when it was flat you were screwed because it usually was juiced up, but its been less predictable since. The Philly/NJ folk are gonna lose it if this storm screws them, because so far we've had a good DC only clipper, a Boston only blizzard, and NYC east have gotten in on this past event and a couple of the clippers, they'd really be left in the dust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The writing is on the wall for this event Agreed I don't see the PV staying far enough North to give us anything but a scrapper at best.. And for me up here I doubt I see a flake.. The clippers gonna be my "big" event lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I still think it's too far out to really "expect" anything. And highs in the low 20s on Monday is irrelevant, IMO - there have been plenty of storms (including many last winter) with thermal profiles as cold - or colder - than modeled here. Agree about the sharp northern cutoff, though. I'm not making a forecast -- just saying to be cognizant that the12z GFS verbatim is deceivingly robust for our area, in terms of qpf, based on this setup and low track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Agreed I don't see the PV staying far enough North to give us anything but a scrapper at best.. And for me up here I doubt I see a flake.. The clippers gonna be my "big" event lol I'll echo CoastalWX's thoughts over in the SNE thread, I don't think it looks that bad, the PV is not elongated N-S at all and the setup at 500 up over Canada does not appear overly suppressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The writing is on the wall for this eventRight because 3 days before the past bust we thought we were gonna get 2 feet of snow or more. Anyone who is locking anything in hasn't learned their lesson. People really need to get over the last storm their biases and disgust are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Pls stop with the dumb it's over posts . This is going to be a very high ratio event . You are going to be very cold in the snow growth region. If you get .5 someone may get 8 inches of snow. FYI this is a tick away from doubling that. So calm down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I'll echo CoastalWX's thoughts over in the SNE thread, I don't think it looks that bad, the PV is not elongated N-S at all and the setup at 500 up over Canada does not appear overly suppressive. I hope that's right, it's really gotta retreat quite a bit from that 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Right because 3 days before the past bust we thought we were gonna get 2 feet of snow or more. Anyone who is locking anything in hasn't learned their lesson. People really need to get over the last storm their biases and disgust are showing. Okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Pls stop with the dumb it's over posts . This is going to be a very high ratio event . You are going to be very cold in the snow growth region. If you get .5 someone may get 8 inches of snow. FYI this is a tick away from doubling that. So calm down No one said "it's over" lol I was analyzing what I saw verbatim on the GFS, and now the GGEM agrees... For my areas snow growth doesn't really matter when I'm sitting at < .10 with this storm on the current GFS..it's obviously far from over but I'm not gonna ignor a slight trend. The trend is South as of now and until I see otherwise that's how I'll focus my thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 In the past these type of systems would always trend north as we get closer and the +NAO and AO rising again don't suggest suppression (stronger SE ridging). This isn't a clipper system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 People really gotta stop attacking others when they say anything that might contradict 100 feet of snow in their backyard...the GFS and GGEM were the ones that were on board with this event for us up here... Now they're drawing a southern conclusion.. Nothing in that statement is biased or false, it's the truth... I'm not saying it can't change cause it absolutely can. But to suggest it def WILL change is what's really biased... Be subjective and wait till Saturday to see what models say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 From 6z, the changes are fairly modest. It's a little soon to write this event off or call for a significant snowfall. Right now, it bears watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Something else I noticed, most of the modeling has completely trended away from a partial phase over the southwest. When that was occuring it was helping to tug the entire jet orientation further southwest. Look at the 1/28/15 00z GFS run And now today's 12z GFS valid for the same period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Gefs look pretty amped out to hr 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Beautiful look gefs mean. Hr 96 low just east of Delmarva...secys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Just outside the bm. .75+ on the mean...some of that is the clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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