Snowlover11 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I think the NWS learned its lesson . . . But that actually scares me. It missed the ice a week-or-so ago, it over-estimated the magnitude of this storm. What happens next?your average joe wont take them serious for the next storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Going to sleep for 2 days . You guys have fun , Super bowl Sunday snow /rain . Hell of a day to throw a party Take care PB. Enjoy the SB. Still some winter left, look forward to hearing from you more the rest of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I think the NWS learned its lesson . . . But that actually scares me. It missed the ice a week-or-so ago, it over-estimated the magnitude of this storm. What happens next? Upton just got another black eye - deserved or not - one eye - the cancelled ice storm advisory fiasco and the other eye the biggest winter storm bust since 2001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Why so conservative? I'd like to see some more model support before I raise amounts to 25-45"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 your average joe wont take them serious for the next storm. My point exactly. If there actually is a/another big storm in the offing, no one -- least of all the mayor of NYC -- will listen. I think Cuomo still would because Nassau and Suffolk sort of panned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I wouldn't turn my back that's for sure. It's a thread the needle phase job. Right now the phase looks late. Which might actually mean the storm does take shape as the models' view of the storm's evolution changes with each run. Then again, maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Upton just got another black eye - deserved or not - one eye - the cancelled ice storm advisory fiasco and the other eye the biggest winter storm bust since 2001 It's not just Upton. Unfair to kill them solely for this. The one thing NWS has done a better job is coordinating regional forecasts across CWA/offices like Upton/Mt. Holly/Taunton, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 My point exactly. If there actually is a/another big storm in the offing, no one -- least of all the mayor of NYC -- will listen. I think Cuomo still would because Nassau and Suffolk sort of panned out. This is the worst case scenario, because more likely than not we will get a big storm again here in the next year or two and there will be problems with this kind of "do we, don't we" occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I think a general 10-30" call is a safe bet at this point until all models come into agreementlooooooooooool. Let's stay consistent 24-36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I think the 2/1-2 storm has a shot. Potent NS vort diving in with a 50/50 low, a nice western ridge, and blocking north of that. If it has time to amplify, anything can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 looooooooooool. Let's stay consistent 24-36 you're too late. I just upped totals to 36-48 with higher amountsLol I'm done...just had to.....7 hours of sleep in the past 3 nights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 i can tell you one thing, the models will be in consensus with this storm when we get within 36 hours, obviously right now the exact path and coastal development is unkown, but something is in the works for this timeframe, and there will be a fair amount of cold air in place to make frozen precip happen, but thurs/fri should have a nice look at this puppy. the last gfs run wasn't too shabby curious to see what the euro shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 you're too late. I just upped totals to 36-48 with higher amounts Lol I'm done...just had to.....7 hours of sleep in the past 3 nights Did the same thing -- barely slept, I mean -- and even though I'm disappointed to a degree, I will likely do the same thing if there's another "biggie" being projected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The Feb 1st-3rd period needs to be watched. It's got some potential for something for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 LC has been on this one for quite some time. Yeah, but he still thinks last nights storm will come west for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Guys lots of models this afternoon loving this event . Take note , and get some sleep . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triniiphone Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 from another board "Canadian looks similar to the 0z run but not quite as juicy. Lays down 4 to 8 inches from Fredericksburg, VA to Boston, 100 miles both sides of I-95." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I know it's the CMC and it's in never-never land but I like the h5 look at hr 240,....just realized the gfs has a very similar look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I know it's the CMC and it's in never-never land but I like the h5 look at hr 240,....just realized the gfs has a very similar look.and what does the former king, the euro , say ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 any have euro output? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 any have euro output?956mb, tucked right into the coast. 40-50" of rain for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 956mb, tucked right into the coast. 40-50" of rain for everyone Too soon.................. Lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 It's an Apps runner, snow to ice to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Going to sleep for 2 days . You guys have fun , Super bowl Sunday snow /rain . Hell of a day to throw a party what? you're not going to stay up for 3 straight nights tracking? (I don't blame you) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinsfan18 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 It's an Apps runner, snow to ice to rain. That's good news with the Euros new found west biased, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 That's good news with the Euros new found west biased, right?This opportunity is for Sunday night right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Isentropiclift and PB GFI, great PBP, you two are outstanding. As far as this next storm later this week, I need a breather to come down from the three day rollercoaster. Ok, I've recovered Again, great job by the two of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 It's an Apps runner, snow to ice to rain. Snow to rain? Yeh watch if will be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Time to move ahead. I'm not gonna say anything about this storm. But, there are many times like this where we get shafted, and then the next storm. Boom.. 20" + for NYC west. Not hyping anything. So please don't misread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Whatever happened yesterday has zero bearing on the coming storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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