IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 How u figure it's more amped, looks nearly identical to 06z imo When you were at hour 72 I was 24hrs ahead of you already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 When you were at hour 72 I was 24hrs ahead of you already. Gotcha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Sv snow maps get 4 inches to nyc. 2--3 north of that. 6-8 from Ttn south. 8-10 Monmouth and ocean counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The polar jet still phases in too late. The overall differences and slight NW tick appear to be as a result of the PV being a tick further north. Other than that, it's a huge hit for the DC area. Matches up pretty well with about half the the 00z EPS members. Need that polar jet to drop in a lot faster or the system will be able to escape too far East. As a result of the sharper trough the surface low was 2-3mb deeper at 15z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The polar jet still phases in too late. The overall differences and slight NW tick appear to be as a result of the PV being a tick further north. Other than that, it's a huge hit for the DC area. Matches up pretty well with about half the the 00z EPS members. Need that polar jet to drop in a lot faster or the system will be able to escape too far East. As a result of the sharper trough the surface low was 2-3mb deeper at 15z Monday. The flow has been very progressive this year...I will take what I can get. As is its close to a warning hit for nyc and big hit for central Nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The polar jet still phases in too late. The overall differences and slight NW tick appear to be as a result of the PV being a tick further north. Other than that, it's a huge hit for the DC area. Matches up pretty well with about half the the 00z EPS members. Need that polar jet to drop in a lot faster or the system will be able to escape too far East. As a result of the sharper trough the surface low was 2-3mb deeper at 15z Monday. The clipper needs to push through quickly Friday, Friday nights 00z runs will give us a really good idea I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The northern stream being stronger this run helped... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The polar jet still phases in too late. The overall differences and slight NW tick appear to be as a result of the PV being a tick further north. Other than that, it's a huge hit for the DC area. Matches up pretty well with about half the the 00z EPS members. Need that polar jet to drop in a lot faster or the system will be able to escape too far East. As a result of the sharper trough the surface low was 2-3mb deeper at 15z Monday. Nice run for anyone trenton south. Looks like 2-4 inches from the city n & w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The flow has been very progressive this year...I will take what I can get. As is its close to a warning hit for nyc and big hit for central Nj Agreed, verbatim everyone could probably pull out an advisory level snowfall, more for CNJ and points south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Sv snow maps get 4 inches to nyc. 2--3 north of that. 6-8 from Ttn south. 8-10 Monmouth and ocean counties I think this will be similar to many of the storms from last year that really targeted the SNJ/Philly area - not saying those are the only areas, but I think they will make out the best with this type of system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Agreed, verbatim everyone could probably pull out an advisory level snowfall, more for CNJ and points south. See the lows for Tuesday morning? Below zero! Pretty cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The northern stream being stronger this run helped... Yes that initial shortwave was much sharper and I thought this would come further NW but that trailing energy needs to dive in faster. The 1/28 12z GFS did that and the GGEM does that to an extent. What worries me is that the current GFS depiction has a lot of ensemble support from the Euro camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 One thing that could possibly save us here is the high ratios... with only .25 QPF could yield 3-5 for the city on N into the LHV... I guess we will have to wait and see once the S/W is sampled and that won't be until tomorrow and at least tonight's once more information is dropping into the models... I still feel at best for the NYC region 3-6 is really at most here unless the S/W phases much faster with the PV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Low placement imo is further South than 06z not a tick NW.. The Northern precip shield is a bit larger but the 06z run had the low pushing east through central Virginia, whoever the 12z has the low out hitting the Atlantic over norhern North carolina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Yes that initial shortwave was much sharper and I thought this would come further NW but that trailing energy needs to dive in faster. The 1/28 12z GFS did that and the GGEM does that to an extent. What worries me is that the current GFS depiction has a lot of ensemble support from the Euro camp. Let's see what the GEFS say then onto the GGEM and EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Yes that initial shortwave was much sharper and I thought this would come further NW but that trailing energy needs to dive in faster. The 1/28 12z GFS did that and the GGEM does that to an extent. What worries me is that the current GFS depiction has a lot of ensemble support from the Euro camp. Good Pbp. It was encouraging to see...hopefully we see some support this afternoon. I will take 2-3 of feathers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 12z UKMET tracks closer to BM than GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Off topic but the H5 depiction on the 12z GFS for the middle of next week screams major storm. This is the period that the EPS members continue to love. The PV stayed completely in tact so nothing was able to phase with that massive piece of energy sitting over TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Total snow on the GFS http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015012912&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=111 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Off topic but the H5 depiction on the 12z GFS for the middle of next week screams major storm. This is the period that the EPS members continue to love. The PV stayed completely in tact so nothing was able to phase with that massive piece of energy sitting over TX.Yes. Teleconnections my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 12z UKMET tracks closer to BM than GFS. Nice...nobody can read the ukmet better then you. I would think the euro bumps north at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Total snow on the GFS http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015012912&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=111 Like I said earlier this storm was NOT a tick NW on 12z it's about 30-50 miles south and the qpf totals reflect that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I gotta say with a good banana high, strong block and a s/e ridge, as long as the high doesnt press too much, this looks like a good snowstorm. Textbook for a SECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Still don't understand people downplaying it looks like a solid snow event is possible maybe 6"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Total snow on the GFS http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015012912&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=111 Not really a bad look even with the LOW so far south... lets see if the GEFS are further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Total snow on the GFS http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015012912&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=111 to clear up any confusion - the below map shows this storm http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015012912&time=48&var=ASNOWI&hour=123 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Total snow on the GFS http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015012912&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=111 Do those numbers include the clipper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Do those numbers include the clipper? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Still don't understand people downplaying it looks like a solid snow event is possible maybe 6"+. The models have yet to show much run to run consistency and it's becoming apparent that this area will once again be on the edge of significant precip. Both reasons to be conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Do those numbers include the clipper? yes, I posted the one that doesn http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015012912&time=48&var=ASNOWI&hour=123 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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