Zelocita Weather Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 NAM has more of a cutter than anything else with that high sitting offshore, but the its the NAM at 84 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The 12z NAM continues to look amped up in the long range which is a good sign. Ehhh its not that amped, as a matter of fact from 72-84 the system is moving almost due east, I think we might lose this on the 12Z GFS, the NAM is not amped enough IMO at 84 hours for the GFS or other globals to carry this up the coast...I don't think at least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 NAM has more of a cutter than anything else with that high sitting offshore, but the its the NAM at 84 hours...Look to the north man, a cutter is not likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 NAM has more of a cutter than anything else with that high sitting offshore, but the its the NAM at 84 hours... Correct, but with COLD AIR pouring down from Eastern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The setup screams suppression city to me. I think the Euro has the right idea here. At this point I would bet on the other models trending towards it over the next model suites. 231 Que the DT troll posts....LMFAO http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/A_sfc_full_ocean_color.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Why cutter is being brought up I don't know why, this will surppress before it cuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Why cutter is being brought up I don't know why, this will surppress before it cuts yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Why cutter is being brought up I don't know why, this will surppress before it cuts http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9khwbg_conus.gif this should squelch those ideas just a hunch watch how close the 12z gfs run matches that map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 HIGHLY disagree @ thinking the NAM @ 84hrs would cut, that is a perfect track there wrt this systems potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 what percentage right now do u give central nj Monmouth county at a5 inch snow from this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 what percentage right now do u give central nj Monmouth county at a5 inch snow from this WAY to early to answer a question like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 HIGHLY disagree @ thinking the NAM @ 84hrs would cut, that is a perfect track there wrt this systems potential. I don't think so, look at the movement from 72-84, the system is getting pushed almost E-SE, my guess is the 12Z GFS will come in as a near miss or minor hit based on what the NAM did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 what percentage right now do u give central nj Monmouth county at a5 inch snow from this Who knows? Its like 4 days out. Patience... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The idea of a cutter is pretty much dead at this point. The high to the north is clearly stronger than the high over the Atlantic, and the PV is not going to let this thing ride up into Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 what percentage right now do u give central nj Monmouth county at a5 inch snow from this 18% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 18% Bry you know better than to stir the pot but JMA strongly disagrees---- http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2015012812/jma_apcpn_us_6.png the model has no feel for our Apps graveyard ---fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 This event has all the ear markings for a mason dixon line south storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 This event has all the ear markings for a mason dixon line eventLike has been said before. We need to wait for two things. First : the s/w to be sampled. Second : How the clipper moving through the area progresses. But yes, suppression is a distinct possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Bry you know better than to stir the pot but JMA strongly disagrees---- http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2015012812/jma_apcpn_us_6.png jma_apcpn_us_6.png the model has no feel for our Apps graveyard ---fwiw DM- Some great posts to wake up to this AM from you and several others... I do know better, and hopefully the sarcasm came through by putting it at 18%... If not, let me reiterate I was being facetious... Haven't been watching too closely, would be happy with a 3-5" type event, looks like that might be the potential of this one as it looks to have the jets on behind it.. Suppression my biggest concern with this one.. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Iso says rain for NYC and LI. 20" for NWNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 With regard to the 12z NAM, the 500 mb heights along the East Coast are gradually rising, both between 72 hours and 82 hours and 78 hours and 84 hours. The 500 mb maps imply that the system could exit somewhere between the Virginia Capes and Delmarva Peninsula. The evolution of the 200 mb winds and 300 mb winds also imply such an outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 No visible difference from 06z on the GFS through hr 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Computer Guy Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 CG Today's 18z runs ---0z tonight is the full monty thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Whats with the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Whats with the GFS? I'm only out to hr 72 no distinct difference from 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Whats with the GFS? You need to give it time. The GFS is coming in more amped up than 06z. Good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 At hour 93 the trough is significantly sharper and more amped up. Still going to be a mostly mid-atlantic and southern NJ hit however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Its fine i understand but there usally pbp when the models run so thats why i ask. No rush and thanks for the info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 At hour 93 the trough is significantly sharper and more amped up. Still going to be a mostly mid-atlantic and southern NJ hit however.How u figure it's more amped, looks nearly identical to 06z imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The NW edge of the better snows are about 30-40 miles NW of 06z but not anywhere near what 00z had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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