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Post-Super Bowl Storm chance discussion


rossi

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The Euro may be suffering from the bias of leaving energy back in the SW, the 06Z NAM continues to look very amped at 84 hours, the NavGEM at 00Z resembled the Op Euro which is bizarre to say the least inside 5 days.  I would take a solution around the 06Z GFS right now, the GEM is over done, I don't think we will see anything that strong.

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euro 200mb has the bend (turn) up...

not a flat solution on that layer  ATM

so this fits in with the Nam and GFS ideas -imo

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/ECMWF/00/US/ecmwfUS_200_spd_120.gif

 

Monday

 

 

the ESRL guidance is stable

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_f096_us.html

 

 

Nice Storm....not  a monster

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1422528773

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 may not be such a bad thing considering how awful as it was with the last storm

The Euro showed a blizzard for the northeast while other models showed a clipper south of DC heading to sea.  The euro never wavered on the main idea while the other models jumped around like chickens with their heads cut off.  The euro missed NJ/NYC by 50 miles, while nailing most of the region correctly.  Awful, I think not.

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The Euro showed a blizzard for the northeast while other models showed a clipper south of DC heading to sea. The euro never wavered on the main idea while the other models jumped around like chickens with their heads cut off. The euro missed NJ/NYC by 50 miles, while nailing most of the region correctly. Awful, I think not.

I would agree with this, and I stated earlier when this storm first popped up as a potential. We can't allow ourselves to throw out the euros solution on this storm because of mondays storm. Imo we've had far more conversations regarding how the euro nailed a storm 4 days out rather than it busted... This was a rare bust for the euro and ONLY a bust in certain places where we KNEW the western shield would be cut sharp... We should have taken a blend of the 2. Watched the short terms which all pointed towards an Easter precip shield. So let's not discredit the euro

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The UKMET is more amped like some of the GEFS ECMWF ensembles and CMC.

It's possible we can see big changes over the next few days as there is plenty

of spread on the intensity and closeness to the coast. The one thing that looks

like a good bet is that the block and 50/50 should keep the cold in place

ahead of the storm.

 

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Suppression is certainly one of my fears for this one. The PV is nosing South and there is a HP north of the lp as well. Definitely cant cut but CAN possibly shoot ots while just grazing the area. Wouldnt be fair to not include this as a distinct possibility.

 

Yea with this impressive cold push from the far north , suppression seems a strong opportunity to occur.

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The UKMET is more amped like some of the GEFS ECMWF ensembles and CMC.

It's possible we can see big changes over the next few days as there is plenty

of spread on the intensity and closeness to the coast. The one thing that looks

like a good bet is that the block and 50/50 should keep the cold in place

ahead of the storm.

 

attachicon.giff96.gif

Big Changes in which direction ? I think everyone is going to try and avoid a bust - so many will be playing the middle of the road solution for obvious reasons - GEFS mean is the way to go right now IMO

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Suppression is certainly one of my fears for this one. The PV is nosing South and there is a HP north of the lp as well. Definitely cant cut but CAN possibly shoot ots while just grazing the area. Wouldnt be fair to not include this as a distinct possibility.

 

I distinctly remember last year when one of these Southern sliders came through.  It was modeled to hit the CNJ folks and then every run shifted it further south and further south because the PV and confluence was much stronger than initially modeled and it completely missed us and nailed the DC folks.  I'm not saying that's whats going to happen here but dont be shocked if it does.

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I distinctly remember last year when one of these Southern sliders came through.  It was modeled to hit the CNJ folks and then every run shifted it further south and further south because the PV and confluence was much stronger than initially modeled and it completely missed us and nailed the DC folks.  I'm not saying that's whats going to happen here but dont be shocked if it does.

remember that as well - was watching the Eagles game and they were getting 2-3" an hour rates... I fear potential supression of the system as well, but just going to let this one play out however it does, still recovering from the last one.

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I guess we will have to wait until tonight to get a better grip on the situation.. maybe not even until tomorrow 12z runs

830

 

I can't stress this enough...

Nice storm ....Not a monster

keep this in mind

we also need a better PAC side ingest

 

Nam Preview 12z run

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2015012912/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23.png

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830

 

I can't stress this enough...

Nice storm ....Not a monster

keep this in mind

we also need a better PAC side ingest

 

Nam Preview 12z run

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2015012912/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23.png

 

 

Yea I am not expecting a monster either... a moderate snowfall would definitely make due.  NAM still looks pretty amped up? correct?

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