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Post-Super Bowl Storm chance discussion


rossi

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The clipper bombs out too much or not enough, I did not look closely but at a glance I think the 00Z runs so far have not blown the clipper up quite as much, so that may have decreased the confluence...also the timing of the disturbance in the SW, really alot can go wrong, more likely though a miss than a cutter I think at this point.

I don't think it has so much to do with the preceding clipper.  The 18z GFS was just very flat with the shortwave trof through the northern US and swinging towards the Ohio Valley.  The 0z is much stronger and sharper with the s/w.  The wave spacing looks favorable to me and confluence does not look overwhelming (even on the 18z GFS).  I think the "strength" of the energy diving down from Canada will determine is this is a rainer or a fish storm.

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Can you elaborate on 1966 .

I agree with Anthony ratios will be great. Could easily beat last weeks storm in the city. Eastern LI could be looking at a snow pack usually not seen outside of the north woods of Maine.

I don't want to break out the jump to conclusions mat however. A nice 6" event gets me extra money without being stuck in the city

A blizzard occurred with temps in the single digits. It was a very cold storm.

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1/29 00z Summary for Sun (2/1) - Mon (2/2) storm

 

timing sun night into mon afternoon

 

NYC / QPF

 

 

NAM : not in range

GFS:  0.50 - 0.75

GGEM:  0.75 - 1.20 (estimate)

The NAM is out of its range, but even as early as 72hrs it has a sharper and higher amplitude trof than the 0z GFS. 

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That was 1961.

 

The cold 1966 blizzard hit the MA hard.  Up this way, we got into the warm sector (snow to rain).  I'm sure it would be a bad memory if I could remember it.

 

man I read that as 61 not 66 my bad.  Showing my age but I remember both - back in Brooklyn.  

 

UKIE not out on the usual sources but the global maps seem ok.

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This will likely change 100 times, however; historically, when it's this cold the storms are usually suppressed to the south. I highly doubt we have anything more than flurries on Monday.

We have seen snow with temps in the teens. How can you say anything with certainty 4 days out.

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A blizzard occurred with temps in the single digits. It was a very cold storm.

Ok where do I sign? I think we had 2 blizzard warnings last winter. At least 1 of them had temps around 7* if my memory serves me correctly. And another single digit storm. These are very rare indeed. We can add this in as a new feature to our new climate since 2000. Single digit blizzards. PDII was the coldest 20"+ blizzard that I can remember.

-Jason

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Taken verbatim this is your typical 6-10" storm with locally higher amounts. Perhaps up to as much as 18". Should be a fairly fast mover that will come in hot and heavy for maybe 4-6 hours and then wind down. If that secondary does indeed form we're going to need something to slow it down so that it has time to mature over the area.

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_19.png

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_20.png

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_21.png

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Taken verbatim this is your typical 6-10" storm with locally higher amounts. Perhaps up to as much as 18". Should be a fairly fast mover that will come in hot and heavy for maybe 4-6 hours and then wind down. If that secondary does indeed form we're going to need something to slow it down so that it has time to mature over the area.

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_19.png

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_20.png

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_21.png

Sign me up, this depiction is fine, transfer can be tricky and it will be interesting to see how the new GFS handles miller B systems, after much criticism it wasn't too bad Monday night.
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