NEG NAO Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 IMO the 18Z GFS is once again losing this storm for 1 reason or another just as it did several days before the last storm - lets see what the ensembles mean says later especially the total precip output http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Upton just issued their afternoon Zones Forecast - they are still mentioning "moderate snow accumulation possible" http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html here is the AFD - try to fiqure this out - would like to know what their definition of moderate accumulation is for 2 cycles total 2 moderates IMO = heavy total. http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fxus61.KOKX.html Heavy snow for a 12-hour period is defined by the NWS as 4" or more. So, one is probably talking about 1" to < 4" for each cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Heavy snow for a 12-hour period is defined by the NWS as 4" or more. So, one is probably talking about 1" to < 4" for each cycle. IMO they shouldn't even be mentioning the word accumulation 4 days away...thats how the rumours spread and they get exagerated as they move from one person to another Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 IMO they shouldn't even be mentioning the word accumulation 4 days away...thats how the rumours spread and they get exagerated as they move from one person to another There may be interests (e.g., certain economic sectors) other than the general public for which some kind of advance general notice on accumulations is important. Tradeoffs are almost certainly involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 There may be interests (e.g., certain economic sectors) other than the general public for which some kind of advance general notice on accumulations is important. Tradeoffs are almost certainly involved. Then why isn't Mount Holly mentioning accumulations ? http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KPHI.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Amazing the 20 inch line starts around Uniondale . 20 miles East of Brooklyn . That's how close this was .eh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 In defense of Upton, they realize that the next two weeks are the snowiest of the year around here...and things have a strange way of coming together properly with the main N. American storm track now passing just off to our south & east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Then why isn't Mount Holly mentioning accumulations ? http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KPHI.html Different forecasting offices might have differing degrees of confidence and those differences in confidence might outweigh considerations such as economic interests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 18Z GEFS delivers between 0.25 and 0.50 total precip for the Monday event - considering ratio's may be higher then 10 :1 this has the potential to be a high end advisory event or Winter Storm Warning event IMO. - Stay Tuned http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=apcpn24&runtime=2015012818&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=462 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 18Z GEFS delivers between 0.25 and 0.50 total precip for the Monday event - considering ratio's may be higher then 10 :1 this has the potential to be a high end advisory event or Winter Storm Warning event IMO. - Stay Tuned http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=apcpn24&runtime=2015012818&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=462 Have to see if it gets stronger over the next few days . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Anybody have the EURO ens? The GFS ens I believe last run were further north but I could be wrong. Can someone confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Anybody have the EURO ens? The GFS ens I believe last run were further north but I could be wrong. Can someone confirm? The mean is closer to the coast than the OP this run. Would be nice if we get a tick closer to coast the next few days while still on the colder track that the models converged on today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 18Z GEFS delivers between 0.25 and 0.50 total precip for the Monday event - considering ratio's may be higher then 10 :1 this has the potential to be a high end advisory event or Winter Storm Warning event IMO. - Stay Tuned http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=apcpn24&runtime=2015012818&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=462 Doesn't that suggest "moderate snow accumulation possible" ? Seems a reasonable thing to mention in an AFD given current forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day47_6hrly.php 6-Hourly QPFs for Days 4-7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day47_6hrly.php 6-Hourly QPFs for Days 4-7 What I am liking about Mondays system is the GEFS has .25 to .50 . That looks pedestrian but NEG brought up a good point The Euro 850 s are minus 18 Monday and the surface are in the teens on both the GFS and EURO So those ratios work for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 What I am liking about Mondays system is the GEFS has .25 to .50 . That looks pedestrian but NEG brought up a good point The Euro 850 s are minus 18 Monday and the surface are in the teens on both the GFS and EURO So those ratios work for me. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015012818/gfs-ens_apcpn_us_25.png plenty close to a bigger solution ATM we need to stay diligent until there is sampled energy---- as always http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_f120_usbg.gif It's hard not to bite with this swath of moisture take a look here---nice loop with the big picture in mind http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/flash-wv.html the methods for tracking -imho should never be op run endgame solutions http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgefs-mnsprd%2F18%2Fgefs-mnsprd_atlantic_108_dom_precip_type.gif&model=gefs-mnsprd&area=atlantic&storm=&cycle=18¶m=dom_precip_type&fhr=108&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&ps=area&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150128+18+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=gefs-mnsprd&area=atlantic&cycle=20150128%2018%20UTC¶m=dom_precip_type&fourpan=no&imageSize=&ps=area how is this for oversimplification??? lol step thru the guidance gem ens--we should not.. just pitch this http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2015012812/gem-ens_apcpn_us_25.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015012818/gfs-ens_apcpn_us_25.png top.png plenty close to a bigger solution ATM we need to stay diligent until there is sampled energy---- as always http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_f120_usbg.gif It's hard not to bite with this swath of moisture take a look here---nice loop with the big picture in mind http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/flash-wv.html the methods for tracking -imho should never be op run endgame solutions http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png This SW prob does not get grabbed better sampled until Friday . The Euro holds the SW up in the 4 corners but only ejects a piece out , however the one behind this one for later next week comes all out at once and that's the bigger one. My buddy likes the Monday to the tune of 3 to 6. But thinks the one behind reminds him of 66 Big and really cold. But that's going be another thread. Back to this one , its close and I like the ensembles seeing .25 to .50 w nice ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 This SW prob does not get grabbed better sampled until Friday . The Euro holds the SW up in the 4 corners but only ejects a piece out , however the one behind this one for later next week comes all out at once and that's the bigger one. My buddy likes the Monday to the tune of 3 to 6. But thinks the one behind reminds him of 66 Big and really cold. But that's going be another thread. Back to this one , its close and I like the ensembles seeing .25 to .50 w nice ratios With the teleconnections, it's just a matter of time before we get a huge hit. Like I said, I honestly don't believe we have had our big hit yet. On a side note, in addition to needing the s/w sampled, we also need to have the clipper resolved. The clipper will have a large impact on the PV and eventual outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Not a bad signal from the 00Z NAM at 84 hours, may want to see more amplification than this, but even knocking this down a bit which the GFS will most certainly do given what we know the NAM does at 84 hours is not a bad look. Thats serious suppression though off SE Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 With the teleconnections, it's just a matter of time before we get a huge hit. Like I said, I honestly don't believe we have had our big hit yet. On a side note, in addition to needing the s/w sampled, we also need to have the clipper resolved. The clipper will have a large impact on the PV and eventual outcome. Agreed. Looks like it wants to set a semi block for Monday . The GEM UKIE JMA and ( cough ) NAM are all amped. But we need the GFS and EURO . As far as sampling I think this would prob get into the sat 12z suite. Clipper 1st. 1 to 2 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 WPC This is really interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 WPC This is really interesting ANT listen ....everybody loves ya here you cant just crash the party all the time go back a few pages and read up we have covered this ground already ..... you will see snow with this system trust me dm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Ha Thanks Doorman lol Meanwhile, GFS is coming in amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Tropical tidbits takes FOR-EV-ERRRRRR to Load a model run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Ha Thanks Doorman lol Meanwhile, GFS is coming in amped up. I wish incould see last hr 24 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 GFS is a big hit. Roller Coaster continues. Total flip flop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Snowstorm on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015012900/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png thing of beauty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 GFS is a big hit. Roller Coaster continues. Total flip flop. .50 to .75 with high ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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