IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Weak surface low off the Carolina Coast. Should quickly get kicked East. Flurries make it to south Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The polar jet tries to drop in at the very end which throws back some moisture to the Delmarva and SNJ but it's very flat. Terrible trends today on the GFS and the Euro. If this continues we'll have mostly sunny skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The polar jet tries to drop in at the very end which throws back some moisture to the Delmarva and SNJ but it's very flat. Terrible trends today on the GFS and the Euro. If this continues we'll have mostly sunny skies. oh boy... let's take a step back... 4+ days out could be the range where storms get shunted to the south then come back north under 72 hrs... well see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 fire up the coffee maker http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015012812/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_6.png just needs a bit more o that lantic H-elper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The clipper system has trended stronger, closing off at H5 and that screws up the entire pattern. We actually need the northern stream to be more progressive here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 oh boy... let's take a step back... 4+ days out could be the range where storms get shunted to the south then come back north under 72 hrs... well see That's pure wishcasting. The setup at H5 on the 12z GFS and Euro are not supportive of a signficant storm for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 That's pure wishcasting. The setup at H5 on the 12z GFS and Euro are not supportive of a signficant storm for the area. Damn right it is... I was trying to be funny... sorry you didn't catch it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Damn right it is... I was trying to be funny... sorry you didn't catch it Perhaps if I was sitting on the 24" snowpack that I was promised I might have a bigger sense of humor. The biggest differences appear to be with how the clipper is handled and how it impacts the upstream flow of the polar jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 That's pure wishcasting. The setup at H5 on the 12z GFS and Euro are not supportive of a signficant storm for the area. Too early to say that. The shortwave responsible for this possible system won't even be in a well-sampled area for another few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Perhaps if I was sitting on the 24" snowpack that I was promised I might have a bigger sense of humor. The biggest differences appear to be with how the clipper is handled and how it impacts the upstream flow of the polar jet. Yea i hear ya... I faired OK with 7 inches about but far from the big call! Oh well it happens!! Yes, a stronger drop in the PV will kill our chances of anything.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Perhaps if I was sitting on the 24" snowpack that I was promised I might have a bigger sense of humor. The biggest differences appear to be with how the clipper is handled and how it impacts the upstream flow of the polar jet. We need to resolve the clipper system first. Was it sampled yet? As in, has it hit the west coast yet (I'm at work, so I know I'm being lazy but Ty). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The shortwaves responsible for the clippers are currently over the Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The energy involved in the SB storm is still well up north of Alaska, probably in a poorly sampled area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The energy involved in the SB storm is still well up north of Alaska, probably in a poorly sampled area. The models then won't have any clue until they are better sampled over CONUS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The Euro is completely dry for Sunday for everyone within 150 miles of NYC. With the way the euro has performed for the area lately we can now expect a big snowstorm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 OPC 96hr 500mb outlook the big bend may become our friend slowing the progression of Monday's system off the coast -- speculation perhaps....reality perhaps not fwiw http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_96hr500bw.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The clipper system has trended stronger, closing off at H5 and that screws up the entire pattern. We actually need the northern stream to be more progressive here. Its not the clipper , the clipper actually helps create the block . The Euro holds the energy in the 4 corners bet 44 - 72 before ejecting it. If it ejects like it should it will get caught by the N branch and 12 hours earlier keeps the ridge axis in a good spot If it is Euro bias it should come out faster as it corrects . if its right it gets hung up and the whole thing is flat ,. We will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Not that it matters, but this isn't true. A 3 digit interstate *beginning* with an odd number is a spur into/out of a major metro area, e.g. 195. A 3 digit interstate beginning with an even number is a loop around a major metro area, e.g. 287. The spurs and loops have no correlation between direction and nomenclature, as the nomenclature is derived from the parent road. Its important for weather. If you connect 287 in Westchester, going west across the tap, then it connects to 287 again going south into NJ. This is a great line to describe "North and West." It makes a nice arc. I live just north of 287 in westchester, and many times that line seems to work out for a rain/mix to snow boundary. This whole convo should be taking place in banter Don't take it to banter - take it to the thread on anal retentive discussions of highway markers for meteorological reference, i.e., the N and W of 287 5-page thread I started awhile back... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/15998-pet-peeve-north-and-west-of-287/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 GGEM UKIE JMA . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Guys please , model disco all other $%^&* to the banter . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 more positive news for Monday's system speculation on slower movement holds up http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd ...GUIDANCE/UNCERTAINTY EVALUATION AND PREFERENCES...THERE CONTINUE TO BE VARIOUS SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE SYSTEMEXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CNTRL-ERN STATES FROM THE WEEKEND INTO THESTART OF NEXT WEEK. SUPPORTING ENERGY AMPLIFYING INTO THE PLAINSDURING THE WEEKEND ORIGINATES FROM A COMBINATION OF FLAT FLOWHEADING INTO BC AND SHEARED ENERGY OVER ALASKA IN THE SHORT RANGE.THESE IMPULSES DO NOT REACH WRN CANADA UNTIL LATE FRI SO IT MAYTAKE UNTIL AT LEAST THEN TO GET A REASONABLE ANALYSIS OF THISENERGY. BEYOND THIS ISSUE IS THE QUESTION OF NRN STREAM TROUGHAMPLITUDE OVER THE CONUS AND HOW MUCH INTERACTION THERE IS WITHTHE TROUGH OVER THE SWRN CONUS/NRN MEXICO. GREATER NRN STREAMAMPLITUDE/MORE INTERACTION AS PER 00Z GFS/CMC RUNS LEAD TO ASLOWER/NWWD SFC SYSTEM IN CONTRAST TO THE FLAT NRN STREAMSHRTWV/WEAK AND FAST SFC WAVE OF THE 00Z UKMET. THE UKMET/CMCHAVE ESSENTIALLY SWITCHED PLACES RELATIVE TO THE SOLN ENVELOPECOMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. MEANWHILE THE FULL ARRAY OF ENSEMBLE SFCLOWS BY LATE SUN ONWARD IS QUITE BROAD WITH LITTLE CLUSTERINGASIDE FROM SUGGESTING THE BEST PROBABILITY WOULD BE FOR THE SYSTEMTO BE JUST OFF THE NERN COAST BY 00Z TUE. ON THE POSITIVE SIDE...TAKEN AS A WHOLE THE PAST 24 HRS OR SO OF GUIDANCE HAS STABILIZEDON A SLOWER/STRONGER EVOLUTION THAN SEEN IN EARLIER CONSENSUS.FOR THIS UPDATE ULTIMATELY PREFER TO EMPHASIZE A BLEND OF THE 06ZGFS/00Z ECMWF/00Z GEFS MEAN WITH LESS WEIGHTING ON THE FLATTER 00ZECMWF MEAN. THIS SOLN YIELDS A GOOD INTERMEDIATE SFC TRACK WHICHCOMPARES WELL WITH LAGGED AVG FCSTS INCORPORATING RECENT GFS/ECMWFRUNS... FROM THE OH VLY 00Z MON TO THE DELMARVA/SERN PA 12Z MON TOJUST OFF THE NRN NEW ENGLAND COAST 00Z TUE. THE FAVORED BLENDREPRESENTS CONSENSUS WELL OVER THE WRN STATES WHERE RIDGING ALOFTWILL FLATTEN AS WEAK ENERGY ALOFT COMES INLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 GGEM UKIE JMA .What are they showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Don't take it to banter - take it to the thread on anal retentive discussions of highway markers for meteorological reference, i.e., the N and W of 287 5-page thread I started awhile back... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/15998-pet-peeve-north-and-west-of-287/ Funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The 12z JMA still has the big phase and thus an amped up and wet solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 EURO chooses 0degs.(Feb.3) for us over a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Weather forcasters are surprisingly bullish for this event already.. Even weatherbug app stated moderate accumulation for sunday night then again Monday.. Very strange especially after such a big bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The Euro is .22 for LGA with the clipper, yes surface is 33-34 but that may be snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I edited the title so that this is just for the superbowl/monday potential. I dont have the ability to move posts though i dont think. Sorry guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Weather forcasters are surprisingly bullish for this event already.. Even weatherbug app stated moderate accumulation for sunday night then again Monday.. Very strange especially after such a big bust Yea wxunderground.com has 5-8 Sunday and 1-3 Monday for me... seems a little silly at this point to be throwing out numbers and it's only Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Its not the clipper , the clipper actually helps create the block . The Euro holds the energy in the 4 corners bet 44 - 72 before ejecting it. This is true. A very well known and documented bias of the Euro. I'm curious to see how future runs handle this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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