rossi Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 On to the next one--Lets Discuss Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 On to the next one--Lets Discuss Rossi if i lived in nj rn i wouldnt wanna talk about any snow threat till its actuallt snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 if i lived in nj rn i wouldnt wanna talk about any snow threat till its actuallt snowing I ended up with 7.5 I cant complain. Its been a terrible snow year. Its still snowing moderately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Upton's early take - LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY BY LATE SUNDAY...BUT HAVE WARMED TEMPS UP SIGNIFICANTLY AS 00Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION AND NOT OFF THE COAST. THUS MIXED P-TYPE FOR THE COAST. WOULD EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOT OF CHANGES AT THE FORECAST EVOLVES WITH THIS...BUT BELIEVE THIS COULD END UP BEING A "WARM" STORM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Upton has upper 30s now for next Monday, so there's that. No point having frigid cold if it's not going to snow. Plus, Feb 1 = 2.5 weeks to pitchers/catchers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Upton has upper 30s now for next Monday, so there's that. No point having frigid cold if it's not going to snow. Plus, Feb 1 = 2.5 weeks to pitchers/catchers. I think we are going to have a problem now trying to figure out which model(s) to believe especially if their is a wide spread in solutions for any particular storm --- going to be playing this cat and mouse forecasting game the rest of the way - not good and will probably lead to another bust down the road and and more then the usual infighting here in this forum...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I think we are going to have a problem now trying to figure out which model(s) to believe especially if their is a wide spread in solutions for any particular storm --- going to be playing this cat and mouse forecasting game the rest of the way - not good and will probably lead to another bust down the road and and more then the usual infighting here in this forum......i agree until we get a better spread with the models it going to come down to now casting, however GFS did score one with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 There will be more chances with a -EPO/+PNA but probably more moderate storms rather than KU events. There's also plenty of cold to come so it's far from over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 -Epo and positive pna is ripe for big storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 So . . . What does the GFS say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 So . . . What does the GFS say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DRVTS Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Need to get through February:) and March... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 So . . . What does the GFS say? 12Z GFS has a clipper for late Thursday maybe a couple inches ? Another storm comes out of the southwest later in the week - cuts to Chicago and moves east/northeast from there cutting west of us BUT there is so much cold air involved in the pattern similar to last year that even though it cuts west we are all frozen early next week http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015012712&fh=90&xpos=0&ypos=307 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 12Z GFS has a clipper for late Thursday maybe a couple inches ? Another storm comes out of the southwest later in the week - cuts to Chicago and moves east/northeast from there cutting west of us BUT there is so much cold air involved in the pattern similar to last year that even though it cuts west we are all frozen early next week http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015012712&fh=90&xpos=0&ypos=307 You came very close to getting the 78 set up you have been talking about . Late Jan Blizzard and extreme cold . Came close man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 GFS brings a nice low out Sunday night and Monday. Verbatim there is precip type issues, but 500mb looks great with +PNA, finally a -NAO and a nice 50/50. Have to believe this trends more favorable with the surface low tracking south of us. Lot of potential here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I've noticed that back to back big storms are rather rare birds...as the atmosphere needs to settle down for a week or so after something like this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Sunday looks eariky similar to today. The models have been so awful i don't know what to think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Sunday looks eariky similar to today. The models have been so awful i don't know what to think. That's what makes this fun, onto the next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Sunday looks eariky similar to today. The models have been so awful i don't know what to think. Don't trust anything, I suppose, unless there's real consensus. Maybe average GFS and Euro and hope for the best? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Sunday looks eariky similar to today. The models have been so awful i don't know what to think. I think a general 10-30" call is a safe bet at this point until all models come into agreement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 So . . . What does the GFS say?(Rushes to get the crown)All hail the new king! All hail King GFS! God help us all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 How many times has it happened that a southern stream storm tracks to our north and we stay all frozen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Sunday looks eariky similar to today. The models have been so awful i don't know what to think.ah so another hyped up bust of a storm, Great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 You came very close to getting the 78 set up you have been talking about . Late Jan Blizzard and extreme cold . Came close man yes - was very similar - do you think DT finally "sees it" ??? lol - since he disagreed and wondered in another thread where I came up with that one - LMAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I think a general 10-30" call is a safe bet at this point until all models come into agreement Why so conservative? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I just don't buy the look at H5. These systems miraculously end up digging for gold. The same thing happened today. I remember when this looked like a glorified clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Just because this storm busted a bit for us doesn't mean you can sleep on February and the 1st half of March for another shot at a big system. 1st part of February looks quite cold on a good number of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I wouldn't turn my back that's for sure. It's a thread the needle phase job. Right now the phase looks late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 ah so another hyped up bust of a storm, Great! I think the NWS learned its lesson . . . But that actually scares me. It missed the ice a week-or-so ago, it over-estimated the magnitude of this storm. What happens next? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Going to sleep for 2 days . You guys have fun , Super bowl Sunday snow /rain . Hell of a day to throw a party Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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