Snowman86 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 You mean like Sunday/Monday We shall see. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 You mean like Sunday/Monday Even tracking for us will be interesting. Whatever the Euro prints out right or wrong, no one is going to be buying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The Nam should not even be looked at yet people are always riding it as legit Seriously. And how many times does this need to be said until people stop? Here's a hint...they never learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Even tracking for us will be interesting. Whatever the Euro prints out right or wrong, no one is going to be buying it. They will when they are stuck on roads for not listening to the weather alerts. Just because a storm or 2 busts out doesnt mean everyone should stop paying attention to the weather forcast. I mean come on let common sense speak to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU4Real Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 As more or less a) an outsider / lurker, not a professional met and c) very much a professional manager of complex processes including software development, I would ask the following questions: 1. Generally speaking, what is the "success rate" of the long-term models with regard to Miller storms, as relates to track and QPF shield? 2. Within the wealth of archival data that is kept on these storms, does there exist a standard set of metrics to track #1, above? 3. If 1 & 2 are true, then what is the mechanism to quantify "lessons learned" and turn that into specific input to the computer models? My own empirical sense of these things over the last several decades is that many of the predictions ultimately fall into the Scott Norwood category (wide right), some lesser number of them verify "wide left" and the minority wind up over the plate. If that's the case, then it stands to reason that there is an issue with either how the initialization data is being handled or, more likely, the models' interpretation of the dynamics and their resulting output. I watched all the model runs for this storm very closely. At around 5PM yesterday I turned my attention from the model runs to the radar and IR & Water Vapor sat loops. I noticed something on the latter which cause me to think (and tell my friends) that this storm was setting up east. It wasn't anything quantifiable, it was simply my own perception of how the coastal low was interacting with the negatively tilting trough. It **looked** to me like the low was being lifted to the northeast in a manner that was inconsistent with that predicted by the Euro and the NAM. If it were my gig to run, I'd start by crunching the numbers behind model performance relative to coastal storms and analyzing the specific manner in which each model is either proficient or deficient. There would certainly be, somewhere in all that data, a recognizable pattern. From that I think it's likely that a more accurate solution could be evolved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Feb 2010 was worse....got 1" when 50 miles south 2 feet.... Feb 2010 was tempered though a week later with a major noreaster snowfall that pretty much missed Boston and then we got clobbered the end of February with that loopy snowicane where NE got a nice soaking rainfall. Feb 2010 was a rough stretch for NE, really the whole 2009-2010 was tough for them. This one really wont' end up all that high in the Hall of Fame of busts in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Even tracking for us will be interesting. Whatever the Euro prints out right or wrong, no one is going to be buying it. I will not buy anything for a while . However I did not see 1 model stand out in this event . ( other than the ones that blew up on the western side ) . Laurel Hollow got close to 20 inches of snow , Brooklyn close to 12 , they are separated by 30 miles . The system jumped 75 miles . If the jump was 40 miles less , KNYC gets 20 and the N/S border gets 30 . That`s how close OBX came to verifying from KNYC east . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Seriously. And how many times does this need to be said until people stop? Here's a hint...they never learn. The next person who uses the NAM as justification for anything but the least likely outcome should probably be banned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The correct forecast was 10"-20" for the city and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 As more or less a) an outsider / lurker, not a professional met and c) very much a professional manager of complex processes including software development, I would ask the following questions: 1. Generally speaking, what is the "success rate" of the long-term models with regard to Miller storms, as relates to track and QPF shield? 2. Within the wealth of archival data that is kept on these storms, does there exist a standard set of metrics to track #1, above? 3. If 1 & 2 are true, then what is the mechanism to quantify "lessons learned" and turn that into specific input to the computer models? My own empirical sense of these things over the last several decades is that many of the predictions ultimately fall into the Scott Norwood category (wide right), some lesser number of them verify "wide left" and the minority wind up over the plate. If that's the case, then it stands to reason that there is an issue with either how the initialization data is being handled or, more likely, the models' interpretation of the dynamics and their resulting output. I watched all the model runs for this storm very closely. At around 5PM yesterday I turned my attention from the model runs to the radar and IR & Water Vapor sat loops. I noticed something on the latter which cause me to think (and tell my friends) that this storm was setting up east. It wasn't anything quantifiable, it was simply my own perception of how the coastal low was interacting with the negatively tilting trough. It **looked** to me like the low was being lifted to the northeast in a manner that was inconsistent with that predicted by the Euro and the NAM. If it were my gig to run, I'd start by crunching the numbers behind model performance relative to coastal storms and analyzing the specific manner in which each model is either proficient or deficient. There would certainly be, somewhere in all that data, a recognizable pattern. From that I think it's likely that a more accurate solution could be evolved. Not just that but apparently the inverted trough over Central PA robbed moisture on the western side. Not sure how much this affected the heavier bands not making it into NE NJ though. Would think it affect NE PA/NW NJ moreso Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The correct forecast was 10"-20" for the city and LI. Which is still a great storm and a borderline MECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The correct forecast was 10"-20" for the city and LI. I ended up going 10-15 for NYC and the 5 boroughs and 18-30 for LI, that worked for Suffolk but less so Nassau, I was terrified all day though that if the westward extent of the banding was too far to the east I was going to look really bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Even tracking for us will be interesting. Whatever the Euro prints out right or wrong, no one is going to be buying it. I think the euro is still a superior model. Let this be a lesson that "riding it" isn't necessarily the right thing to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 A REAL MAN HERE Gary Szatkowski, meteorologist-in-charge at the National Weather Service in Mt. Holly, New Jersey, apologized on Twitter for the snow totals being cut back. “My deepest apologies to many key decision makers and so many members of the general public,” Szatkowski tweeted. “You made a lot of tough decisions expecting us to get it right, and we didn’t. Once again, I’m sorry.” It wasn't like anyone was intentionally misleading anyone...these people did their best...based both on their training, their experience, and the tools available to them...model output...satellite feed...radar...predicting the precise movements of large air masses has never been an easy task...and anyone who says it is doesn't know what they are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poker2015 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I don't post very much, but my account was locked or something so I had to create a new one... Growing up in Bergen County I remember most storms wishing I was a little north or west to get into the big totals, not that my location was bad, but could be better...it seemed like most storms on the Jersey Shore had mixing issues which kept totals lower and similar on Long Island Now every big storm those places seem like the jackpot and being north and west hasn't worked out like it used to...I thought moving to Somerset County on the Hunterdon border would be a better spot then Bergen County. But storm after storm for the past 6 years I've been here its been a little disappointing seeing the change of the jackpot zones to the Jersey Shore and LI (especially eastern)... Is this a pattern change or those areas getting lucky recently? I'm not happy with my 3 inches from this storm...which 2 of them came sunday night into Monday so I don't even count that part... Hopefully next week is a decent one, wont make up for this miss but will help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 We need an RCP, HuffPost Pollster for weather models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 It wasn't like anyone was intentionally misleading anyone...these people did their best...based both on their training, their experience, and the tools available to them...model output...satellite feed...radar...predicting the precise movements of large air masses has never been an easy task...and anyone who says it is doesn't know what they are talking about. Very true . I just appreciate when people take ownership of " mistakes " . However with the guidance that was in front of them there had to have been many voices agreeing . You can see that when you overlay those maps from BOX to HOLLY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 If there is one area in which I might take issue with the extremely heavy snowfall forecasts...it would be in that I do not believe sufficient weight was paid to the concept of how very rare a snowstorm of the magnitude (given both snow amounts and real estate covered) they were forecasting is. Given the very long odds on such an occurrence (based on historical climatology)...I might have tempered any extreme model output in the actual text forecasts I issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The progressive nature of the pattern recently with the strong +AO hurt us here. A blocking pattern near Greenland or the Davis Strait instead of to the south would have probably facilitated the low closing off further SW. The UL captured the storm late as it was already too far east. I found numerous examples of big hits east of NYC where lows closed off a little too late in more progressive +AO patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Hearts go out to Morris County west. Especially Morris County. Sorry for PHL. Hopefully we can all cash in next storm. I'm not even going to look at the models its gonna be 1888. It somehow snows without anyone knowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Yeah, this storm was hyped way too much by all forecasters, I don't really get this. I remember back in 2009-2010 for the 3 big storms. The wording on the Winter Storm Watches/Warnings would gradually go up toward the correct total. WPC did a great job that winter and blended model preference perfectly. No one overhyped that storm at all, NAM had several instances for those storms (specifically 12/19/09) where it was going bonkers with the Snowfall totals, while at the same time GFS was further south and slowly correcting north. 2/6/10 had several NAM runs that were putting some of Southern PA on the cutoff, but no one cared. A true bust is when almost all models miss on a decent sized area or in a metropolitan area. Those are March 2001, December 2010, and 3/6/2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The progressive nature of the pattern recently with the strong +AO hurt us here. A blocking pattern near Greenland or the Davis Strait instead of to the south would have probably facilitated the low closing off further SW. The UL captured the storm late as it was already too far east. I found numerous examples of big hits east of NYC where lows closed off a little too late in more progressive +AO patterns. Something to keep mind of in future setups. Great pickup btw. Have you looked at the setup for next week? Any preliminary thoughts? Both GFS/GGEM hinting at some potential with it even this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockawayRowdies Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Hearts go out to Morris County west. Especially Morris County. Sorry for PHL. Hopefully we can all cash in next storm. I'm not even going to look at the models its gonna be 1888. It somehow snows without anyone knowing.We had no measurable snow since about 5 or 6 PM yesterday.Edit: I'm in Lake Hiawatha..Parsippany Township. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Yeah, this storm was hyped way too much by all forecasters, I don't really get this. I remember back in 2009-2010 for the 3 big storms. The wording on the Winter Storm Watches/Warnings would gradually go up toward the correct total. WPC did a great job that winter and blended model preference perfectly. No one overhyped that storm at all, NAM had several instances for those storms (specifically 12/19/09) where it was going bonkers with the Snowfall totals, while at the same time GFS was further south and slowly correcting north. 2/6/10 had several NAM runs that were putting some of Southern PA on the cutoff, but no one cared. A true bust is when almost all models miss on a decent sized area or in a metropolitan area. Those are March 2001, December 2010, and 3/6/2013. I don't think Dec 2010 was a bust. It was just that models couldn't have predicted where that heavy mega band would set up. Once it stalled on top of NE NJ there was no choice but for someone to get screwed and that ended up being western NJ. In the past even with Jan 96 and PDII the forecasts were almost always 12-18 or 15-20 until right before the event. 20+ is pretty rare for a forecast without incredible model consensus because those events are just so rare. 20-30" widespread? Very hard to nail down I highly doubt forecasts were for 3 feet in 78 but isolate places got that and even more in RI/MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Something to keep mind of in future setups. Great pickup btw. Have you looked at the setup for next week? Any preliminary thoughts? Both GFS/GGEM hinting at some potential with it even this far out. Euro's a cutter, no arctic high or blocking. Still a chance of a moderate event though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The progressive nature of the pattern recently with the strong +AO hurt us here. A blocking pattern near Greenland or the Davis Strait instead of to the south would have probably facilitated the low closing off further SW. The UL captured the storm late as it was already too far east. I found numerous examples of big hits east of NYC where lows closed off a little too late in more progressive +AO patterns. KNYC 12 N shore Nassau County reports of 20 Suffolk County reports of 28 Not sure if that constitutes a hurt ? It only feels like it hurt because the forecasts were so high . If the forecast was for 10 - 15 @ KNYC and 20 -25 on Long Island , we all would have though that a great event about to unfold. I was always under the impression that pos AO and plus 6 inch snowstorms @ KNYC were very hard to come by , this would shatter that no ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Which is still a great storm and a borderline MECS.The issue was in NJ where most of the public was expecting 18" plus and received under 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Something to keep mind of in future setups. Great pickup btw. Have you looked at the setup for next week? Any preliminary thoughts? Both GFS/GGEM hinting at some potential with it even this far out. With the way the models have been behaving recently in this pattern I am going to hold the guesses to a few days before. It's interesting that these types of misses in winter storm situations were very common when the models were in earlier generations. So the forecasters in those days were accustomed to quick changes in the nowcast period. When the NAM shifted east at 0Z you knew that the Euro was going to be too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 KNYC 12 N shore Nassau County reports of 20 Suffolk County reports of 28 Not sure if that constitutes a hurt ? It only feels like it hurt because the forecasts were so high . If the forecast was for 10 - 15 @ KNYC and 20 -25 on Long Island , we all would have though that a great event about to unfold. I was always under the impression that pos AO and plus 6 inch snowstorms @ KNYC were very hard to come by , this would shatter that no ? I see his point though. That setup (Progressive/+AO) argued that the GFS/RGEM might be onto something. Clearly overlooked by many-myself included Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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