OHweather Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Judging by the mean, the GEFS probably has a spread from the Gulf Coast to Detroit. Will have to examine the individual members later when they come out. It's hard to have faith in any solution more than 2-3 days out when the imputes to the storm is a cut-off trying to eject out of the southwest. The first polar jet shortwave that will try to phase with the cut-off over the Plains looks like it'll be sampled for 12z Friday runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I don't understand this post. Want to clarify. Too far north for the good stuff on some of the model runs from last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Interesting to note (and crazy that I'm even posting it or believing it) but the GFS has snow all the way down to Florida by hr 240. Certainly signifying colder air coming at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 it hasn't totally sucked this year either. I just need it to take a small dose of valium It's been very good this winter just like last winter. Euro has been awful both winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Just glancing at the bigger picture...the ensembles for a few days have been trying to develop a half decent -NAO this weekend, with some lower heights over New England and the NW Atlantic keeping the flow rather flat ahead of our potential storm. Although this smells like a mix for CLE just because I'm pessimistic, we would need a full phase and negatively tilted trough by the time the system gets east of the Mississippi for a cut to the north. A partial phase would likely be a solid solution for IL/IN/OH (except for maybe along the Ohio River in IL/IN and the southeastern third of Ohio) as I don't think a partial phase would allow for this to deepen enough to take on a sharp negative tilt and cause a hook to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Judging by the mean, the GEFS probably has a spread from the Gulf Coast to Detroit. Will have to examine the individual members later when they come out. It's hard to have faith in any solution more than 2-3 days out when the imputes to the storm is a cut-off trying to eject out of the southwest. The first polar jet shortwave that will try to phase with the cut-off over the Plains looks like it'll be sampled for 12z Friday runs. Individuals updated here: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/ensprsloopmref.html Of course I wonder if it makes a difference in comparison to the op, since the GEFS are still run off the old model/parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Too far north for the good stuff on some of the model runs from last night.The euro yes but the GGEM and GFS were nice hits here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 It's been very good this winter just like last winter. Euro has been awful both winters. If you expect the Canadian to never get a thing right and the Euro to nail everything then I agree. The Canadian still performs worse than the GFS and Euro, but the major upgrade they did a couple of winters ago appears to have made it useful...although I'd still look at it after the GFS and Euro. The Euro has been inconsistent the last two winters but hasn't been awful compared to the other models. The Euro was placed on a pedestal of perfection, and I still think it edges out the GFS for the best model but like all models is inconsistent and will have some hilariously wrong solutions at times. Individuals updated here: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/ensprsloopmref.html Of course I wonder if it makes a difference in comparison to the op, since the GEFS are still run off the old model/parameters. The biggest improvement I've noticed with the upgrade is it seems much more realistic in terms of properly phasing systems and isn't ridiculously undefined with shortwaves anymore...it also appears to not be as prone to convective feedback. With that said, since the outcome of this storm will depending on when we eject a cut-off out of the southwest (and to an extent how quickly the northern shortwave dives into the Rockies/Plains Friday into Saturday) moreso than how sharp a shortwave is or convection in the Gulf I don't know if the upgrade makes a huge difference here. I'm definitely not a NWP expert though. But that's about what I expected out of the individual members. Not too many complete shutouts though but looks like a couple less super amped members compared to last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 It's been very good this winter just like last winter. Euro has been awful both winters. although if it is going to blow a gasket, this is exactly how it does it. It super amps a storm inside 120 when no other model is showing it. but who knows, I wouldn't bet a dime on any solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The GEM is pretty strong with the northern shortwave, actually closes it off at 500mb as it phases. The kind of solution the far NW sub forum would take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 euro may be worse than the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 EURO ....meh...what storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The GEM is not going to fool me, that's for sure, betting hard against it though I would love it to transpire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 that euro run was painful....at least it wasn't an 00z run when I'd be kicking myself for staying up for it. everyone gets whiffed, not a flake north of the river. The swings between 00z and 12z are 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 that euro run was painful....at least it wasn't an 00z run when I'd be kicking myself for staying up for it. Pretty damning when all we have is the GGEM and now back to our regularly scheduled winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Pronounced differences in the upper flow overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 that euro run was painful....at least it wasn't an 00z run when I'd be kicking myself for staying up for it. everyone gets whiffed, not a flake north of the river. The swings between 00z and 12z are 180. Wild flip flopping is an indication that the solution space is still wide open, especially with the GGEM maintaining a robust storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Pronounced differences in the upper flow overall. Pac Vorts coming into British Columbia and its interaction with west Arctic Vorts had a significant change in which they are no longer allowing any interact with the SW Vorts. I know some don't want to hear it based on other posts but it is very hard to not ignore the season treads. Yes at some point they will fail but with only the GGEM on our side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Pac Vorts coming into British Columbia and its interaction with west Arctic Vorts had a significant change in which they are no longer allowing any interact with the SW Vorts. I know some don't want to hear it based on other posts but it is very hard to not ignore the season treads. Yes at some point they will fail but with only the GGEM on our side Exactly. It's typically best to go with the seasonal trend in a situation where the models are flipping wildly. So the weaker, less phased, solutions should be the ones to favor at this point until we can get some agreement and particularly some consistency from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Pac Vorts coming into British Columbia and its interaction with west Arctic Vorts had a significant change in which they are no longer allowing any interact with the SW Vorts. I know some don't want to hear it based on other posts but it is very hard to not ignore the season treads. Yes at some point they will fail but with only the GGEM on our side It hard to reference a "seasonal trend" when none of these have worked out this season. A "seasonal trend" to me is if we have had three other similar storms that all ended NW of guidance, so I am hedging NW. Saying a storm isnt going to form because one hasnt formed this season is ludicrous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Ignoring sensible weather impact...in terms of phased/deep storms, we did have Nov 23-24. Getting one of these to benefit many has been tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Surprised buckeye didn't post the 12z JMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Ignoring sensible weather impact...in terms of phased/deep storms, we did have Nov 23-24. Getting one of these to benefit many has been tough. But of course even in unfavorable patterns such as the one we've been in, it will always be far easier to get a wound-up/negative tilt storm in the Plains/Upper Midwest (nearer to the Chinook Winds and further away from the Appalachian Mountains downsloping) than one in the lower/eastern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Since Bowme isn't around to post it, I figured I would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Surprised buckeye didn't post the 12z JMA. app runner....lock it in. rehash of 12z suite GFS -wiff Uk - wiff nogaps - wiff euro - wiff ggem - amped cutter jma - app runner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Since Bowme isn't around to post it, I figured I would. apparently this guy humps outdated euro runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 apparently this guy humps outdated euro runs I guess you're not familiar with the great John Dee... But seriously, his broadbrushed amounts in the past tend to be closer to correct than not, at least here in my area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Weaker pac ridging these runs. To flat. Yeah the vorticity wasn't allow to dig this model suite except on the ggem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Weaker pac ridging these runs due to the flat stream. That seems like a plausible way to screw this thing up, given the northern stream shortwave behind this system hauling it under the progressive NW flow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I guess you're not familiar with the great John Dee... But seriously, his broadbrushed amounts in the past tend to be closer to correct than not, at least here in my area... no I've seen his windows 98 paint maps many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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