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January 31st-February 2nd overrunning snow event


Thundersnow12

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Judging by the mean, the GEFS probably has a spread from the Gulf Coast to Detroit. Will have to examine the individual members later when they come out. It's hard to have faith in any solution more than 2-3 days out when the imputes to the storm is a cut-off trying to eject out of the southwest. The first polar jet shortwave that will try to phase with the cut-off over the Plains looks like it'll be sampled for 12z Friday runs.

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Just glancing at the bigger picture...the ensembles for a few days have been trying to develop a half decent -NAO this weekend, with some lower heights over New England and the NW Atlantic keeping the flow rather flat ahead of our potential storm. Although this smells like a mix for CLE just because I'm pessimistic, we would need a full phase and negatively tilted trough by the time the system gets east of the Mississippi for a cut to the north. A partial phase would likely be a solid solution for IL/IN/OH (except for maybe along the Ohio River in IL/IN and the southeastern third of Ohio) as I don't think a partial phase would allow for this to deepen enough to take on a sharp negative tilt and cause a hook to the north.

 

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Judging by the mean, the GEFS probably has a spread from the Gulf Coast to Detroit. Will have to examine the individual members later when they come out. It's hard to have faith in any solution more than 2-3 days out when the imputes to the storm is a cut-off trying to eject out of the southwest. The first polar jet shortwave that will try to phase with the cut-off over the Plains looks like it'll be sampled for 12z Friday runs.

 

Individuals updated here: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/ensprsloopmref.html

 

Of course I wonder if it makes a difference in comparison to the op, since the GEFS are still run off the old model/parameters.

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It's been very good this winter just like last winter.

 

Euro has been awful both winters.

If you expect the Canadian to never get a thing right and the Euro to nail everything then I agree. The Canadian still performs worse than the GFS and Euro, but the major upgrade they did a couple of winters ago appears to have made it useful...although I'd still look at it after the GFS and Euro. The Euro has been inconsistent the last two winters but hasn't been awful compared to the other models. The Euro was placed on a pedestal of perfection, and I still think it edges out the GFS for the best model but like all models is inconsistent and will have some hilariously wrong solutions at times.

 

 

Individuals updated here: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/ensprsloopmref.html

 

Of course I wonder if it makes a difference in comparison to the op, since the GEFS are still run off the old model/parameters.

The biggest improvement I've noticed with the upgrade is it seems much more realistic in terms of properly phasing systems and isn't ridiculously undefined with shortwaves anymore...it also appears to not be as prone to convective feedback. With that said, since the outcome of this storm will depending on when we eject a cut-off out of the southwest (and to an extent how quickly the northern shortwave dives into the Rockies/Plains Friday into Saturday) moreso than how sharp a shortwave is or convection in the Gulf I don't know if the upgrade makes a huge difference here. I'm definitely not a NWP expert though. But that's about what I expected out of the individual members. Not too many complete shutouts though but looks like a couple less super amped members compared to last night.

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that euro run was painful....at least it wasn't an 00z run when I'd be kicking myself for staying up for it.

 

everyone gets whiffed, not a flake north of the river.   The swings between 00z and 12z are 180.  

 

 

Wild flip flopping is an indication that the solution space is still wide open, especially with the GGEM maintaining a robust storm.

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Pronounced differences in the upper flow overall.

Pac Vorts coming into British Columbia and its interaction with west Arctic Vorts had a significant change in which they are no longer allowing any interact with the SW Vorts. 

 

I know some don't want to hear it based on other posts but it is very hard to not ignore the season treads.  Yes at some point they will fail but with only the GGEM on our side :yikes:

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Pac Vorts coming into British Columbia and its interaction with west Arctic Vorts had a significant change in which they are no longer allowing any interact with the SW Vorts. 

 

I know some don't want to hear it based on other posts but it is very hard to not ignore the season treads.  Yes at some point they will fail but with only the GGEM on our side :yikes:

Exactly.  It's typically best to go with the seasonal trend in a situation where the models are flipping wildly.  So the weaker, less phased, solutions should be the ones to favor at this point until we can get some agreement and particularly some consistency from run to run.

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Pac Vorts coming into British Columbia and its interaction with west Arctic Vorts had a significant change in which they are no longer allowing any interact with the SW Vorts. 

 

I know some don't want to hear it based on other posts but it is very hard to not ignore the season treads.  Yes at some point they will fail but with only the GGEM on our side :yikes:

 

It hard to reference a "seasonal trend" when none of these have worked out this season. A "seasonal trend" to me is if we have had three other similar storms that all ended NW of guidance, so I am hedging NW.

 

Saying a storm isnt going to form because one hasnt formed this season is ludicrous.

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Ignoring sensible weather impact...in terms of phased/deep storms, we did have Nov 23-24. Getting one of these to benefit many has been tough.

But of course even in unfavorable patterns such as the one we've been in, it will always be far easier to get a wound-up/negative tilt storm in the Plains/Upper Midwest (nearer to the Chinook Winds and further away from the Appalachian Mountains downsloping) than one in the lower/eastern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley...

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