nwohweather Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Any one who has followed winter weather for a long time knows that mother nature likes persistence. We are in a non phased winter pattern...despite what some model runs like to show. Some winters phased storms are the norm...not this winter.You would think it would eventually change. My guess is...not this winter. Lets not make ignorant posts please. Yesterday we just had a major blizzard plow through the Northeast for christ sakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 One of the Vorts for this system is currently between Hawaii and the Aleutian Islands. It is not modeled to be on shore until Friday afternoon in British Columbia. Sampling in the middle of the Pacific is not much. We will continue to get large variations until things get better sampled. It may go either way but lets not cancel because of one GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 12z GGEM should be a pretty good run. Amazing run for the subforum. Low deepens to 994mb at 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Not so fast says the 12z Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Lets not make ignorant posts please. Yesterday we just had a major blizzard plow through the Northeast for christ sakes We have not had well-phased storms in the Midwest though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 You may be right but it should be easy to understand how no one will have faith in this storm until within 24 hours given how things have played out this winter in general.with re: to the nor' easter model performance, which has IMO been blown way out of proportion, as has been stated here. 30-40 miles east of NYC, there's 2'+. If the same shift would have been here it would have been meh! Plus, those type of storms are notoriously hard to exact. I wouldn't say the models completely failed there. 4-5 days out still, there's going to be model discrepancies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 We have not had well-phased storms in the Midwest though. But that alone is not a reason why we can't have one now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 canadian says jumpers please step back. Destroys Chicago/LAF/MI taints CMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Anyone recall any well-phased snowstorms prior to the blizzard of 99? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 ukie ain't play'n Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 If mother nature is going to flip us the bird. At least she's doing it now so we don't have to waste our time the next 2-3 days I guess that's one positive way to look at it I was just thinking about that lol.. But yeah you know the drill.... I dont think we're that lucky to get a system like 00z gfs last night showed lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 And just for the record, I'm not punting anything or jumping off any cliffs yet as far as this storm. I'm merely expressing why I'm not getting emotionally invested in this storm, as far as getting worked up over the expected erratic model flip-flopping. That way, if the storm craps out, I won't be disappointed and if it produces well, I'll be pleasantly surprised (as it's not one of those setups where any possible solution is a lock). If others choose to have a different perspective, more power to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 with re: to the nor' easter model performance, which has IMO been blown way out of proportion, as has been stated here. 30-40 miles east of NYC, there's 2'+. If the same shift would have been here it would have been meh! Plus, those type of storms are notoriously hard to exact. I wouldn't say the models completely failed there. 4-5 days out still, there's going to be model discrepancies. Philly was expecting around a foot, and barely got some snowshowers, it was overblown a bit due to unrealistic snow maps as well, but it's frustrating that it was the Euro that screwed it up that time. Makes it hard to give any model an edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 People need to stop playing the "this is how its gone this winter" card. Each storm and each setup will always be different.You know that's not totally true. We've seen it before... If you're in a pattern that had missed phases all season, there's a greater chance of it continuing than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Lets not make ignorant posts please. Yesterday we just had a major blizzard plow through the Northeast for christ sakesTo be fair, it must be acknowledged that was a completely different setup (and completely different shortwaves).Thus, it has no bearing on whatever potential this upcoming system has... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Anyone recall any well-phased snowstorms prior to the blizzard of 99? I was just going to say this. Philly was expecting around a foot, and barely got some snowshowers, it was overblown a bit due to unrealistic snow maps as well, but it's frustrating that it was the Euro that screwed it up that time. Makes it hard to give any model an edge. <weenie> The GGEM did the best with the coastal. </weenie> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 12z suite tally so far: gfs - miss ukie- miss nogaps - miss ggem - bombs away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 canadian says jumpers please step back. Destroys Chicago/LAF/MI taints CMH Yeah Canadian looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Yeah Canadian looks great it hasn't totally sucked this year either. I just need it to take a small dose of valium Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 You know that's not totally true. We've seen it before... If you're in a pattern that had missed phases all season, there's a greater chance of it continuing than not. Eh. I'll still make the case that each storm and setup is always different no matter what's happen the past several months. Wasn't it fairly bad before GHD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Anyone recall any well-phased snowstorms prior to the blizzard of 99? As stated above, that was a completely different synoptic setup and pattern we were in... NOT saying it can't happen again, but IMO I'd rather judge this upcoming storm's potential based on: 1. Its merits (the strength/evolution of its shortwave energy) 2. What the overall pattern in place will support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 And just for the record, I'm not punting anything or jumping off any cliffs yet as far as this storm. I'm merely expressing why I'm not getting emotionally invested in this storm, as far as getting worked up over the expected erratic model flip-flopping. That way, if the storm craps out, I won't be disappointed and if it produces well, I'll be pleasantly surprised (as it's not one of those setups where any possible solution is a lock). If others choose to have a different perspective, more power to them. This is sensible. Not saying to completely forget seasonal trends, but it's true that no 2 setups are exactly the same. Better than punting 4-5 days out over 1 model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 Take 2-4" off the southeast MI/Detroit area as it has that falling with this first system tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Eh. I'll still make the case that each storm and setup is always different no matter what's happen the past several months. Wasn't it fairly bad before GHD? From a teleconnection standpoint (PNA, AO,NAO), it actually resembles this storm a bit. During the GHD storm, we had a similar trough position in the west with the PV hanging by up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Eh. I'll still make the case that each storm and setup is always different no matter what's happen the past several months. Wasn't it fairly bad before GHD? Shhhh....I said more often than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Wasn't it fairly bad before GHD? ORD had 25.8" on the season going into GHD. December 2010 was pretty good for quite a few as well. One of the snowiest on record here due to the continuous MSP-QC-LAF-IND-CVG clipper train. Doesn't matter though because the pattern was clearly different in Dec...and then it changed at the end of Jan to allow something like GHD to happen. Same thing when we think about Jan 1999. The season was a disaster up until that point...and then went back into the crapper two weeks after...only to revive again for the first week or two of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 ORD had 25.8" on the season going into GHD. December 2010 was pretty good for quite a few as well. One of the snowiest on record here due to the continuous MSP-QC-LAF-IND-CVG clipper train. Yeah just went back and looked at that January. Besides the 5.9" on 1/11 it was a fairly quiet snow month. Decent 4-5 day stretch of a half inch or so everyday later in the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Yeah just went back and looked at that January. Besides the 5.9" on 1/11 it was a fairly quiet snow month. Decent 4-5 day stretch of a half inch or so everyday later in the month. It was the ultimate penny and nickel January around here, though the frequency made it a better snow month than this year's January so far (though we'll see if we add any Jan 31st). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 GHD had the Octo-Bomb the October before it....Then a big storm that I believe crashed the roof at the metrodome in December....The pattern was available for some good winter "bombs" that fall/winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Take 2-4" off the southeast MI/Detroit area as it has that falling with this first system tomorrow. 12z gem snow.png even though we get the warm tongue shoved up our cabooses with that solution....I'd take that over the gfs solution any day. Verbatim the ggem would probably front end dump us, change over and back end us as well. At least it would offer something other than a snooze fest. Also with that high pressure configuration...probably lots of low level cold fighting it's way in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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