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January 31st-February 2nd overrunning snow event


Thundersnow12

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I think it is just that model performance has been so bad this year that getting any too excited about a day 5 storm this year would be a set up for: :cliff:

Let just say I think most are CAUTIOUSLY optimistic at this point.

I could not agree more. I trust nothing. All i will say is that we have had numerous shovelable snowfalls this winter, but they have all been under 4" imby, & if there has been an opportunity to exceed that this year, this is the best chance so far. Be optimistic, be pessimistic, whatever..

but trust NO model.

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6Z GFS followed suit...similar to the other guidance and it's previous 00Z run

 

00Z GFS had a better phase with the southern stream Baja energy, allowing for more rapid deepening and as others have mentioned, a less progressive system than the 06Z run. Certainly interested in seeing where the 12Z run goes.

 

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I think it is just that model performance has been so bad this year that getting any too excited about a day 5 storm this year would be a set up for: :cliff:

Let just say I think most are CAUTIOUSLY optimistic at this point.

I think the fact that there are a lot of moving pieces that need to come together is keeping everyone in check at this point. We've seen these phasers before...and we've been burned. I'll likely be waving as this scoots by to the SE (unless quicker phase and full blown negative tilt happen), but it's exciting to see this potential as a wx fan.

Can't wait for sampling to occur.

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This thread is kinda quiet, and understandably at this point.

 

Let just say I think most are CAUTIOUSLY optimistic at this point.

 

Cautious optimism is the way to go right now. Haven't posted much at all this month, been too many downer systems and just needed to take a break. This storm could be a good GLOV morale booster even if the fully phased solutions don't pan out.

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Cautious optimism is the way to go right now. Haven't posted much at all this month, been too many downer systems and just needed to take a break. This storm could be a good GLOV morale booster even if the fully phased solutions don't pan out.

 

We've had a lot of disappointment this year as it is, compared to last year.  Cautious optimism is where its at for now.  I wouldn't be comfortable until late Friday early Saturday at this point.

 

Hell look at what happened in NYC - sure a 8-10" event is great, but far from the historic 2-3' that was called for 24 hours out, only to be taken back nearly 8 hours before the storm hit.

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Any one who has followed winter weather for a long time knows that mother nature likes persistence. We are in a non phased winter pattern...despite what some model runs like to show. Some winters phased storms are the norm...not this winter.You would think it would eventually change. My guess is...not this winter.

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yea, let's lock and load one drastically changed model run.

How about instead, given the fact we haven't had a system like the GFS showed at all this year (if at all the past 2-3 seasons unless you count the purely northern stream January 2014 PV snowstorm), we simply just keep our expectations in check...

We know there's potential, but at the same time, the trend lately of rather unimpressive southern-stream storms can't be ignored. There's nothing drastically different pattern-wise from what we've had with most of the storms prior to this weekend system to suggest we be any more optimistic about it versus its predecessors (the poorly performing models and their erratic flip-flopping notwithstanding).

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I suspect by tomorrow at 12z, if not tonights 00z runs, we will at least have a decent idea if this will be a partial phase, total phase, or miss.   Once that's established then track, strength, etc will wobble into focus 48hrs after that.  My head says it'll be a miss, (based on this winter so far), but I'm hoping for a partial phase.

 

It would be unusual to see the euro, (even though I know it's getting bashed right now), verify much differently then whatever it shows tomorrow at this time.  It's usually pretty solid inside 72 hours, with the general idea.

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People need to stop playing the "this is how its gone this winter" card. Each storm and each setup will always be different. Every single time and mother nature doesn't care about your pessimistic attitudes and thinking it will never happen this winter. 

 

You may be right but it should be easy to understand how no one will have faith in this storm until within 24 hours given how things have played out this winter in general.

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You may be right but it should be easy to understand how no one will have faith in this storm until within 24 hours given how things have played out this winter in general.

 

That's fine. I get the models haven't performed well but again, take it to the banter thread if all you're going to post is "based on this winter". 

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People need to stop playing the "this is how its gone this winter" card. Each storm and each setup will always be different. Every single time and mother nature doesn't care about your pessimistic attitudes and thinking it will never happen this winter. 

 

 

Agree.  We haven't even seen the full 12z suite yet but even if it all trends unfavorably, too early to jump off a cliff.

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