michsnowfreak Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I think it is just that model performance has been so bad this year that getting any too excited about a day 5 storm this year would be a set up for: Let just say I think most are CAUTIOUSLY optimistic at this point. I could not agree more. I trust nothing. All i will say is that we have had numerous shovelable snowfalls this winter, but they have all been under 4" imby, & if there has been an opportunity to exceed that this year, this is the best chance so far. Be optimistic, be pessimistic, whatever..but trust NO model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 6Z GFS followed suit...similar to the other guidance and it's previous 00Z run 00Z GFS had a better phase with the southern stream Baja energy, allowing for more rapid deepening and as others have mentioned, a less progressive system than the 06Z run. Certainly interested in seeing where the 12Z run goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I think it is just that model performance has been so bad this year that getting any too excited about a day 5 storm this year would be a set up for: Let just say I think most are CAUTIOUSLY optimistic at this point. I think the fact that there are a lot of moving pieces that need to come together is keeping everyone in check at this point. We've seen these phasers before...and we've been burned. I'll likely be waving as this scoots by to the SE (unless quicker phase and full blown negative tilt happen), but it's exciting to see this potential as a wx fan. Can't wait for sampling to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 This thread is kinda quiet, and understandably at this point. Let just say I think most are CAUTIOUSLY optimistic at this point. Cautious optimism is the way to go right now. Haven't posted much at all this month, been too many downer systems and just needed to take a break. This storm could be a good GLOV morale booster even if the fully phased solutions don't pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I'm riding the 12z NAM, it would fit seasonal trends! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 12z GFS back to a light event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 12z GFS back to a light event. lol, in one model run I went from 1+inches of warm tongue mixed qpf, to 1-3" of powder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Cautious optimism is the way to go right now. Haven't posted much at all this month, been too many downer systems and just needed to take a break. This storm could be a good GLOV morale booster even if the fully phased solutions don't pan out. We've had a lot of disappointment this year as it is, compared to last year. Cautious optimism is where its at for now. I wouldn't be comfortable until late Friday early Saturday at this point. Hell look at what happened in NYC - sure a 8-10" event is great, but far from the historic 2-3' that was called for 24 hours out, only to be taken back nearly 8 hours before the storm hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 GFS no phase, similar to last nights Euro but weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Easy come, easy go! I'm not surprised... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 12z GFS back to a light event. Weak northern vort that doesn't even connect with the SW cutoff ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 GFS no phase, similar to last nights Euro but weaker.Much different outcome than the 0z ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 GEFS have a lot more nice runs then bad ones. These are looking much nicer than they were yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 That was fun run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 lol, in one model run I went from 1+inches of warm tongue mixed qpf, to 1-3" of powder I went from near a foot on the 0Z to flurries on the 12Z ... awesome upgraded model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Easy come, easy go! I'm not surprised... yea, let's lock and load one drastically changed model run. This thing has more hills and valleys ahead of it thru the next 48 hrs at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Welp, the shiny new GFS brings the excitement down quite a bit. So much for a little run to run consistency. Doesnt even look like it phases at all. Still plenty of time to get it back though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 GFS no phase, similar to last nights Euro but weaker. Lol no they aren't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 GEFS have a lot more nice runs then bad ones. These are looking much nicer than they were yesterday Got to love that spread from P001 => no storm just COLD to P010 with a SLP near Green Bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Any one who has followed winter weather for a long time knows that mother nature likes persistence. We are in a non phased winter pattern...despite what some model runs like to show. Some winters phased storms are the norm...not this winter.You would think it would eventually change. My guess is...not this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 yea, let's lock and load one drastically changed model run.How about instead, given the fact we haven't had a system like the GFS showed at all this year (if at all the past 2-3 seasons unless you count the purely northern stream January 2014 PV snowstorm), we simply just keep our expectations in check...We know there's potential, but at the same time, the trend lately of rather unimpressive southern-stream storms can't be ignored. There's nothing drastically different pattern-wise from what we've had with most of the storms prior to this weekend system to suggest we be any more optimistic about it versus its predecessors (the poorly performing models and their erratic flip-flopping notwithstanding). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 People need to stop playing the "this is how its gone this winter" card. Each storm and each setup will always be different. Every single time and mother nature doesn't care about your pessimistic attitudes and thinking it will never happen this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I suspect by tomorrow at 12z, if not tonights 00z runs, we will at least have a decent idea if this will be a partial phase, total phase, or miss. Once that's established then track, strength, etc will wobble into focus 48hrs after that. My head says it'll be a miss, (based on this winter so far), but I'm hoping for a partial phase. It would be unusual to see the euro, (even though I know it's getting bashed right now), verify much differently then whatever it shows tomorrow at this time. It's usually pretty solid inside 72 hours, with the general idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 If mother nature is going to flip us the bird. At least she's doing it now so we don't have to waste our time the next 2-3 days I guess that's one positive way to look at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 People need to stop playing the "this is how its gone this winter" card. Each storm and each setup will always be different. Every single time and mother nature doesn't care about your pessimistic attitudes and thinking it will never happen this winter. You may be right but it should be easy to understand how no one will have faith in this storm until within 24 hours given how things have played out this winter in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 You may be right but it should be easy to understand how no one will have faith in this storm until within 24 hours given how things have played out this winter in general. That's fine. I get the models haven't performed well but again, take it to the banter thread if all you're going to post is "based on this winter". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 People need to stop playing the "this is how its gone this winter" card. Each storm and each setup will always be different. Every single time and mother nature doesn't care about your pessimistic attitudes and thinking it will never happen this winter. Agree. We haven't even seen the full 12z suite yet but even if it all trends unfavorably, too early to jump off a cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The 12z GGEM looking great through 96 hours. Seeing a decent phase going on as the two streams of energy interact. Stronger jet streak developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 12z GGEM should be a pretty good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Lol, it's one model run y'all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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